Semantic Uncertainty-Guided Orchestration in Hierarchical Multi-Agent Systems

As large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems become increasingly capable, coordinating agents under uncertainty becomes a fundamental challenge. Existing orchestration strategies typically rely on fixed interaction patterns and often lack mechanisms for assessing the reliability of intermediate reasoning steps, allowing errors and hallucinations to propagate through the system. This paper introduces a semantic-uncertainty-guided orchestration approach, HASSUM as a general framework for uncertainty-aware coordination in multi-agent systems. The method estimates uncertainty using semantic entropy and semantic density, which measure trust at the level of answer semantics rather than output probabilities. These signals enable adaptive orchestration decisions, including output verification, selective reprompting, additional deliberation, and confidence-aware response selection. Because the approach operates independently of any particular agent architecture, it can be integrated into a broad range of hierarchical and collaborative multi-agent systems. The evaluations demonstrate an implementation within a hierarchical agent framework and evaluate it on StrategyQA, JailbreakBench, and TruthfulQA benchmarks. Across tasks that require complex reasoning and are prone to ambiguity or hallucinations, uncertainty-guided orchestration yields more reliable outcomes than uncertainty-unaware coordination. Semantic entropy and semantic density in tandem outperformed either metric alone. Ablations testing different thresholds and model sizes demonstrated that both influence the effectiveness of semantic metrics. The results suggest that semantic uncertainty is a practical and general-purpose signal for improving robustness and trustworthiness in agentic AI systems.

Calibrating Semantic Uncertainty from Observable Language-Model Probabilities

As generative artificial intelligence enters scientific and professional work, its uncertainty must be defined on the states that matter for inference and decision-making. Language models assign probabilities to words, whereas applications require uncertainty over meaningful states such as diagnoses, hypotheses or operational conditions. We introduce a \emph{semantic map}: a prespecified, testable bridge from probabilities over verbal responses to a posterior over declared finite states. The language distribution remains unrestricted; held-out calibration connects it to a reference posterior. We derive posterior-error bounds and conditions for existence, conditional uniqueness, presentation stability and stable inverse recovery. This distinction matters because language probabilities depend on prompt wording, while the target posterior should not change under information-equivalent rewording. Experiments use professional market text compiled from Federal Reserve economic and financial series, together with controlled simulations having exact posteriors. Across two fitted language models, language-derived probabilities outperform printed numerical confidence, recover held-out posteriors with valid uncertainty coverage, remain largely stable under paraphrase and respond appropriately to altered evidence. \textbf{Prompt engineering optimises a wording-dependent response; robust scientific use requires validated stability of application-relevant meaning.} The proposed map turns semantic uncertainty in generative systems into an identifiable and testable statistical measurement problem and, when its acceptance conditions hold, yields an auditable posterior estimate.

Building Reliable Long-Form Generation via Hallucination Rejection Sampling

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in open-ended text generation, yet they remain prone to hallucinating incorrect or unsupported content, which undermines their reliability. This issue is exacerbated in long-form generation due to hallucination snowballing, a phenomenon where early errors propagate and compound into subsequent outputs. To address this challenge, we propose a novel inference-time hallucination mitigation framework, named Segment-wise HAllucination Rejection Sampling (SHARS), which uses an arbitrary hallucination detector to identify and reject hallucinated segments during generation and resample until faithful content is produced. By retaining only confident information and building subsequent generations upon it, the framework mitigates hallucination accumulation and enhances factual consistency. To instantiate this framework, we adopt semantic uncertainty as the detector and introduce several vital modifications to address its limitations and better adapt it to long-form text. Our method enables models to self-correct hallucinations without requiring external resources such as web search or knowledge bases, while remaining compatible with them for future extensions. Empirical evaluations on standardized hallucination benchmarks demonstrate that our method substantially reduces hallucinations in long-form generation while preserving or even improving the informativeness of generation. Code is available at: https://github.com/TreeLLi/hallucination-rejection-sampling.