Olivier Dietrich, Krishna Sapkota, Konrad Schindler +1cs.CV
Conventionally, Building Damage Assessment (BDA) is tackled either with dedicated network architectures or by fine-tuning geospatial image foundation models. In this work, we ask whether a general-purpose Vision-Language Model (VLM) can localize buildings and grade their damage through autoregressive sequence generation alone. We cast BDA as predicting a variable-length set of bounding boxes, each specified by its coordinates and a damage label. Our preliminary implementation, based on the open Gemma model, achieves promising damage mapping results from only bi-temporal satellite images and a suitable text prompt.
Mixed strategy equilibrium predicts i.i.d play: past actions should not help predict future decisions. Human players, however, systematically depart from this benchmark, and in O'Neill's zero sum card game, these departures can be predicted by black box sequence models such as LSTMs. This paper asks whether that predictive power can be achieved by transparent alternatives that also reveal the behavioural structure behind it. Using 84,060 decisions from 2,802 pairs, the analysis first benchmarks naive and behavioral models against interpretable machine learning and deep learning models, then evaluates the modified EWA specifications of prior work against these benchmarks and uses the LASSO diagnostics to motivate a further nested frequency tracking extension. The results show that repeat or avoid behavior, especially players' management of their own recent action histories, accounts for most of the interpretable and strategically exploitable signal, while frequency tracking adds little out of sample.
Solomonoff Induction, or SolInd, provides an ideal unbounded model of a priori sequence prediction but cannot naturally describe extrapolation from a given training dataset, as performed by Large Language Models. We apply de Finetti's theorem on exchangeable distributions to SolInd to produce what we call Hierarchical Solomonoff Induction, or HSI, which maintains a hyperprior over all Solomonoff priors that can be conditioned on previously observed sequences. We extend Wood et al.'s proof that universal mixtures of semimeasures are equivalent to SolInd to show that universal mixtures of these mixtures are also equivalent, proving that HSI=SolInd. We also prove that HSI's excess error on any distribution, compared to its true generator, is bounded by that generator's complexity in the hyperprior. This result is directly comparable to SolInd's prediction error being bounded by the Kolmogorov complexity of the sequence being predicted, and forces HSI's average excess error to converge to 0 as a dataset grows, leading to optimal prediction in the limit. We claim that HSI is an ideal unbounded model of sequence prediction given a dataset in the same way that SolInd is ideal over individual sequences.
In a previous paper, we began the study of sequence prediction algorithms adapted to stringological word complexity measures. One measure we considered was left-to-right (most-significant-digit-first) automaticity. Here, we show a statistically and computationally efficient algorithm adapted to the ``dual'' right-to-left (least-significant-digit-first) automaticity, which turns out to be substantially different for our purpose. We also demonstrate a prediction algorithm for a more expressive measure that we call ``arithmetic repetition complexity''. In particular, the latter can be used for predicting the so-called mix-automatic sequences.
Recent LLM agents benefit from skills for solving complex tasks. Skills encapsulate modular packages of procedural knowledge and instructions for performing specialized tasks, such as setting up a sandboxed environment, running a test suite, or refactoring a function across multiple files. As skill libraries grow and become reusable across tasks and domains, selecting an appropriate skill composition has emerged as a central bottleneck. Existing approaches fall into two categories. One exposes the agent's reasoning to the entire skill collection; the other performs skill retrieval via embeddings or LLM-based rerankers. Both provide useful insights; however, they miss the structural nature of skill composition, which is a joint decision over which skills, how many, and in what order -- three dimensions that cannot be decoupled. We formalize this as structured skill composition: given a task and a skill library, predict an executable skill plan that jointly specifies the activated subset, count, and execution order. We propose SkillComposer, which instantiates structured skill composition as task-conditioned skill sequence prediction. SkillComposer uses a constrained autoregressive decoder over skill identifiers, so subset, count, and order emerge jointly from a single decoding pass, and dependencies between successive skills are captured naturally. We build a training set of task-composition pairs from a real, human-curated skill library. We then evaluate SkillComposer along two axes: composition quality on a held-out test set, and downstream task success on SkillsBench across two production-grade coding agents. On GPT-5.2-Codex, Gemini-3-Pro-Preview, SkillComposer raises the pass rate by +23.1, +18.2pp over the no-skill baseline, surpassing top-3 retrieval and matching the gold-skill retrieval upper bound at lower prompt-token cost.
Julia Gachot, Philipp Allgeuer, Marie S. Bauer +1cs.SD cs.LG eess.AS
In speech processing, most state-of-the-art sequence prediction models rely on auto-regressive (AR) strategies to generate output sequences based on the raw predictions of the model. Despite their crucial role in the inference process, a comprehensive overview of AR strategies as a unified field is lacking, due largely to implicit and multiple definitions of next-token decoding. This context complicates the choice, comparison, and evaluation of strategies, while creating inconsistencies in the characterization of approaches as auto-regressive or not. We begin by setting explicit inclusion criteria for the field of AR search in speech processing, and derive a generalized theoretical framework to categorize and report on search strategies for neural models. We show the capabilities of this formalism in simplifying the design of benchmarks centered around the decoding process, allowing for ablation studies that are focused on search strategies.
Ziyuan Li, Paulo S. A. Freitas, John W. Clark +1cs.LG nucl-th
The prediction of masses of atomic nuclei using machine learning can complement theoretical models and advance the exploration of poorly known domains of the nuclear chart. We propose a machine learning technique based on gated recurrent units (GRU), which have demonstrated competitive performance in nuclear-mass prediction by exploiting long-term dependencies. By integrating multiplicative interactions and product-unit transformations within recurrent units, we report significant improvements in nuclear-mass prediction. Computations are performed in the complex domain to jointly capture amplitude and phase dynamics. For interpolation and temporal-extrapolation tasks based on the atomic mass evaluation (AME2016 and AME2020), the complex additive-multiplicative product-unit gated recurrent unit (AM-PU-GRU) model consistently achieves the lowest prediction errors, with an interpolation RMSE of 0.227 $\pm$ 0.004 MeV and an extrapolation RMSE of 0.179 $\pm$ 0.015 MeV. These results surpass other state-of-the-art machine learning models and also outperform the real-valued GRU baseline and product-unit ablation variants, while remaining robust to different theoretical priors, including WS4 and SEMF. Our findings establish complex-valued product-unit recurrent networks as a new benchmark for sequence-based nuclear-mass prediction.
Untargeted liquid chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS) detects thousands of molecular features per sample, yet only 2-20% receive confident structural annotations. A root cause of this "dark metabolome" is that tandem MS/MS acquisition is reactive: instruments select precursors only after ions appear, blind to what elutes next. We reframe chromatographic elution as an autoregressive sequence prediction task. Because reversed-phase elution order is governed by hydrophobicity, successive features form a physically constrained sequence, like tokens in language. We discretize the mass-to-charge (m/z) axis into 110 bins and train long short-term memory (LSTM) and Transformer models to predict the next eluting m/z bin from five annotation-free per-token features: m/z bin, mass defect, retention-time gap, polarity, and intensity rank. Trained on 15,242 features from four clinical lipidomics cohorts (342 plasma samples; SCIEX TripleTOF 6600+, Waters CSH C18), the LSTM reaches 98.4% top-1 accuracy (99.99% top-5; mean absolute error 3.6 Da) and the Transformer 98.0%. Ablation shows autoregressive context accounts for 55.5 percentage points while no single feature contributes more than 0.2 pp: the sequential pattern, not molecular properties, drives prediction. Models transfer across instruments sharing the method (r=0.999 on an independent Agilent 6530 dataset) but fail under a different column chemistry (5.1% top-1) or polarity mode (2.6%), confirming method- and mode-specificity. Fine-tuning on as few as two to five quality-control injections recovers held-out accuracy from 2.6% to nearly 50%, so cross-condition deployment needs minimal calibration. These results establish that elution sequences are highly predictable and lay the groundwork for predictive MS/MS acquisition to improve annotation coverage in untargeted metabolomics.