Exact Algebraic Computation of Learning Coefficients for Two-Dimensional Singular Models

Classical information criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) rely on regularity assumptions that break down for singular models, leading to incorrect model selection in settings such as deep learning. The Widely Applicable Bayesian Information Criterion (WBIC) relies on local learning coefficients $λ$, which in the analytic case coincides with local Real Log Canonical Thresholds (RLCT) of the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the model, to capture correct marginal likelihood asymptotics. Exact computation of the learning coefficients has been limited to special cases, and only sampling-based estimation methods are generally applicable. We present the first deterministic algorithm that computes local RLCTs exactly for any two-dimensional model whose Kullback-Leibler distance is contact equivalent to a polynomial, derive a bound on its complexity, and demonstrate its effectiveness for a broad class of models, with applications including polynomial neural networks. Beyond providing ground truth to calibrate sampling-based estimators, exact computation reveals algebraic structure in learning coefficients that sampling cannot and out-speeds it in the shallow regime.

The Off-Support Barrier: Why Semantic Safety Constraints Are Not Learning-Problem Invariants, and What Follows for Prior Design, Containment, and Verification

We argue that a single structural fact organizes a wide range of phenomena in contemporary AI safety: a semantic safety constraint (e.g., the agent does not escape its sandbox) is an off-support object. Formally, if q is the data distribution and \(p(\cdot\mid w)\) the model, the safety predicate B is not measurable with respect to \(σ(\text{model}, q)\), whereas the real log-canonical threshold (RLCT) of singular learning theory (SLT) is. From this non-invariance we derive, as corollaries rather than independent observations: (i) why reward hacking and sandbox escape arise under outcome-based optimization; (ii) why encoding such constraints through Bayesian prior design or soft penalty weighting has poor leverage in singular models; (iii) why hard invariants belong in the harness and soft dispositions in the model; (iv) why the same B is nonetheless soundly and locally certifiable by formal verification, exactly as the local learning coefficient (LLC) locally pins the same RLCT --- with two precise points of disanalogy; and (v) why the residual difficulty, identifying which off-support region matters, coincides with performative prediction and self-referential functional dynamics, where SLT's analytic machinery breaks down. We use the July 2026 OpenAI--Hugging Face evaluation incident as the motivating case. Numerical experiments code and related proofs in lean are available at https://github.com/xiangze/Preventing_Jailbreak_as_regularization