Daniela Stojcheska, Marija Markovska, Dimitar Taskovski +2cs.LG
Accurate and reliable collection of electricity consumption data through Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) is of great importance for the operation of smart grids, especially for the detection of non-technical losses (NTL). However, real-world datasets frequently suffer from missing values due to communication failures. This paper presents an empirical evaluation of three advanced algorithms for large-scale data imputation: the Optimally Weighted Average (OWA) method, Low-Rank Matrix Completion via SoftImpute, and a Shape-Modeling Autoencoder. Existing studies on missing value imputation in electricity consumption data often lack validation on larger datasets. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to validate the selected algorithms on a large-scale real-world electricity consumption dataset from North Macedonia that includes 17,428 commercial smart meters over two years. The robustness of each algorithm is evaluated by simulating continuous gaps in the data ranging from 1 to 168 hours. The results indicate that OWA provides the lowest overall reconstruction error across the evaluated gap sizes and strong stability in worst-case scenarios for gaps of up to one week. In contrast, the autoencoder exhibits higher variance, while SoftImpute has stable but inferior accuracy. These findings suggest that imputation methods should be selected based on the characteristics of load curve data and highlight the potential for hybrid algorithmic architectures in future grid management systems.
Residential short-term load forecasting (STLF) is challenging because household demand is heterogeneous, temporally variable, and shaped by diverse behavioural routines. This work investigates whether inferred behavioural structure can be embedded within the forecasting mechanism of a Neural Process-based probabilistic model, rather than used only as an external grouping signal, for context-conditioned residential STLF. We propose a behaviour-conditioned Attentive Neural Process framework that treats each load profile as a forecasting task. Behavioural structure is represented by a discrete latent variable inferred from the available context and used for behaviour-conditioned decoder conditioning, while a continuous latent variable captures shared functional uncertainty across heterogeneous profiles. To enable conditioning without ground-truth behavioural labels, clustering-derived information provides weak supervision during training, whereas test-time conditioning relies only on context-inferred class distributions. Experiments on the Smart Grid, Smart City (SGSC) dataset use user-disjoint train/validation/test splits, variable context lengths, and multi-step forecast horizons, with comparisons against a label-agnostic ANP baseline and fixed-window deterministic STLF baselines. The proposed variants improve MAE and CRPS over ANP across horizons and context settings, with the largest gains under limited context. The best-performing variant achieves average reductions of 7.9% in MAE and 6.9% in CRPS relative to ANP. Compared with fixed-window baselines, this variant achieves lower RMSE across all evaluated horizons while maintaining competitive MAE, suggesting fewer large prediction deviations under heterogeneous consumption patterns. These results support single-model, uncertainty-aware forecasting across heterogeneous households, contexts, and horizons.
Matthias Hertel, Sebastian Pütz, Jonathan Kolar +3cs.LG
Accurate load forecasting at multiple grid levels is essential for future smart grids, ranging from aggregated control area forecasts for balancing supply and demand to forecasts of individual end-consumer loads for demand-side management and energy management systems. We present a comprehensive benchmark for load forecasting across grid levels, comprising three datasets that represent a transmission system operator control area, low-voltage grid feeders, and individual end consumers. We evaluate ten methods for short-term load forecasting and find that Transformer-based approaches consistently outperform established methods, reducing forecast error by 6.6-10.7 %. To analyze the impact of architectural design, we introduce YAformer, a flexible Transformer architecture that integrates modifications from prior work and is optimized via hyperparameter optimization. However, the standard Transformer achieves superior performance, suggesting that these architectural modifications are not required for accurate load forecasting. We further evaluate the Transformer-based time-series foundation model Chronos-2, which demonstrates competitive zero-shot performance on two datasets but fails to accurately capture special events in the TSO data. Detailed analyses reveal model-specific strengths and weaknesses, and ablation studies highlight the importance of long input contexts, covariates and continuous retraining - aspects that are often overlooked in the time-series forecasting literature.
Mohannad Takrouri, Nicolas M. Cuadrado A., Martin Takáčcs.AI cs.LG cs.MA
The accelerating shift toward low-carbon power systems, together with the widespread adoption of behind-the-meter technologies such as rooftop solar and electric vehicles, is placing new operational and analytical demands on electricity grids. At the same time, smart-grid research increasingly relies on machine learning (ML), yet progress is constrained by limited access to high-resolution household energy data due to privacy concerns, regulatory barriers, and collection costs. This work presents WattCouncil, a data-generation framework in which household electricity demand is generated by a council of Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents operating in specialized roles to generate, audit, and validate structured energy scenarios under explicit cultural, temporal, and physical constraints. Rather than acting as static predictors, these agents serve as adaptive decision-makers within a governed pipeline. Motivated by studies highlighting the importance of contextual factors in energy use, our framework produces context-sensitive daily routines through a guided reasoning process that incorporates household composition, temporal factors, and environmental conditions. We evaluate the generated profiles against the detailed CER dataset, which contains over a year of load measurements for 4232 households together with survey-based socio-economic information. We further assess the consistency of the framework through ablation studies. Source code is available at https://github.com/Singularity-AI-Lab/wattcouncil
The accelerated digitalization of renewable energy smart grids through IoT sensors, AMI, and SCADA systems has significantly expanded the attack surface for sophisticated cyberattacks, FDI attacks that stealthily distort state estimation and DoS/DDoS attacks that flood communication channels. Current IDS, however, exhibit three inherent limitations: inadequate modeling of the temporal progression of multi-step attacks, degraded scalability under extremely skewed class distributions of standard benchmark datasets, and restricted generalization across heterogeneous network environments. In this study, we present a Hybrid CNN-LSTM IDS that jointly exploits CNN-based spatial feature extraction and LSTM-based temporal sequence modeling, enabling the detection of instantaneous volumetric anomalies and gradually evolving low and slow-attack campaigns in real time. The model was trained using a seven-step preprocessing workflow comprising missing-value imputation, min-max normalization, one-hot encoding, SMOTE class balancing, mutual-information feature selection, causal temporal sequence construction (T=10), and stratified partitioning. LSTM (96.1%), Random Forest (93.5%), SVM (91.2%) and KNN (89.7%); in NSL-KDD, it reaches 98.2% precision versus 96.4% (LSTM), 95.2% (CNN), 92.7% (Random Forest) and 90.8% (SVM), with margins of 2-9 percentage points in all measures. An ablation analysis identified SMOTE balancing as the most influential design choice (-3.7~pp F1 without it). The model achieves a real-time inference throughput of 27,800 flows/s on GPU and 0.082 ms/sample CPU latency in FP32,, with INT8 quantization providing an additional 3.1 x speedup at 0.3% accuracy loss, confirming deployment feasibility on resource-constrained IEDs with <128MB memory and establishing a deployable deep-learning framework for securing next-generation renewable energy smart grid infrastructure.
The rapid growth of AI workloads and renewable energy resources exacerbates supply-demand imbalance in power systems, making traditional load regulation designed for efficient allocation inadequate and motivating demand response (DR) mechanisms to enable load controllability in smart grids. However, existing DR-oriented approaches either focus on optimizing electricity cost or occupant comfort with limited benefit to system-level balance. Others overlook the diverse and dynamic consumption patterns of heterogeneous energy entities, leading to significant over- or under-regulation. Therefore, we propose DRP-FLR. First, DRP-FLR achieves accurate short-term load forecasting by embedding exogenous knowledge (e.g., entity information, prediction time) into historical load representations. Next, it constructs entity-specific load-pattern profiles by clustering historical load curves, and estimates DR potential by matching forecasted loads with pattern profiles. Finally, DRP-FLR formulates flexible load regulation as a mixed-integer optimization problem and solves it with an MILP solver to jointly optimize DR utilization, participant economic benefit, and renewable accommodation, while enforcing supply-demand balance and economic feasibility. Experiments on a regional grid and a campus microgrid show that DRP-FLR reduces regulation deviation by 36.63%-91.87% and improves participant benefit by 44.66% on average.
Modern smart grids rely on dense measurement infrastructures, communication links, and intelligent field devices. Although this improves supervision and control, it also increases vulnerability to cyber-physical disruptions. Operators must distinguish physical incidents, such as faults or line disturbances, from malicious actions, such as false data injection or unauthorized command execution. This chapter investigates this problem using the well-known MSU/ORNL Power System Attack Dataset. The proposed method combines machine learning with genetic-algorithm-based feature selection. The objective is twofold: to classify attack and natural events accurately, and to determine whether a reduced set of physically informative PMU/IED measurements can support reliable detection. Several baseline models are evaluated, including logistic regression, RBF-SVM, XGBoost, Random Forest, and Extra Trees. The results show that tree-based ensemble models are the most effective for the considered dataset, with Extra Trees providing the strongest full-feature baseline. After feature selection, the GA + Extra Trees model reduces the clean PMU feature space from 112 attributes to an average of 27.4 attributes over five runs, while increasing macro-F1 from 0.9118 to 0.9212 and ROC-AUC from 0.9791 to 0.9837. These results indicate that many synchronized electrical measurements are redundant. A compact subset of phasor-based features can still provide accurate and interpretable anomaly detection in smart grids.