Signal or Spurious Cue? A Randomized Audit of Survey-Country Metadata in LLM Social Inference

Survey-country metadata can improve an LLM's forecast of an individual response when informative, yet the same cue may redirect the forecast when assigned at random. A within-record audit tests whether disclosing a random label's uniform, record-independent origin reduces its country-directed uptake, and whether verified survey country lowers held-out Brier loss. Independent population anchors and recorded human answers measure direction and consequence across five fixed API models, six countries, and seven development-selected targets. In the primary post-review 72-record panel, opaque and disclosed-random labels each produced country-direction shifts of 0.214. Paired attenuation was 0.0003 (95% CI [-0.0157, 0.0166]). Verified country reduced Brier loss by 0.040 (95% CI [0.024, 0.056]), while random-label regret included zero. A non-overlapping mixed-coverage consistency panel retained positive disclosed-random movement and verified utility, while attenuation remained uncertain. On the selected targets, verified metadata was useful in both panels, but disclosure did not reliably attenuate random-label uptake. PROV-FORECAST contains 14,400 paired item-level probability distributions from the corrected panel.

FriendBench: Benchmarking Dyadic Familiarity Inference in Humans and Multimodal Large Language Models

Reading a social situation often depends on behavior, not words alone. We introduce FriendBench, a benchmark for inferring whether two people are already familiar or are meeting as strangers, from a 20-second clip of a dyadic ice-breaker conversation. Every pair answers the same type of prompt, so only the manner of interaction can reveal the answer. Across text, audio, and video, we compare 26 models from seven companies against matched human panels over 96 balanced dyads. The best model and the human crowd are statistically indistinguishable on accuracy in every modality, but reach it differently: humans stay balanced across the two answers, while the strongest models lean toward "stranger"---a difference in effective prior, not discrimination. Richer channels help both unequally, and only humans gain from visible behavior on top of speech. We release the stimuli, human ratings, and model predictions.