Researchers increasingly use artificial intelligence to construct measures of social, organizational, and occupational characteristics that are absent from conventional surveys. We propose AICOME, AI COntextual MEasurement, a framework for evaluating whether AI-derived respondent-level measures can recover individual and group-level effects in contextual models. The key idea is that an AI measure constructed at the respondent level can be used to derive its group-level aggregate and its individual deviation, allowing researchers to estimate both between-group and within-group associations rather than treating AI measurement as response prediction alone. We validate the framework using the 2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), where occupations provide the empirical grouping structure and several job-related survey variables provide validation benchmarks. For computer use, foreign-language use, weekly hours, and management responsibilities, we compare survey measures with AI-derived measures in response-level, model-level, contextual, and boundary-condition validations. The results show that AI contextual measurement can recover much of the contextual-model information contained in observed survey variables when rich respondent and job characteristics are available. Weekly hours provides the strongest validation case, with AI-derived measures reproducing the large negative between- and within-occupation associations with satisfaction observed in CFPS. The framework also identifies clear boundary conditions: performance deteriorates when information is restricted to occupation and basic demographics, and recovery is weaker when several related concepts are treated as simultaneously unobserved. The findings suggest that AICOME is most useful for recovering a limited number of theoretically important constructs from rich existing datasets.
Marco Rovera, Sergiu Burlacu, Dominique Cappelletti +5cs.CL cs.CY
Reliable assessment of causal research designs in the social sciences is critical for evidence-based policy-making, yet has so far relied entirely on manual expert analysis. We introduce Automated Research Design Tracking and Assessment (ARDTrA), a task that involves detecting the research design used in a paper and assessing the quality of its application. We create an expert-annotated dataset of papers covering six families of counterfactual research designs and evaluate the task using a multi-turn RAG-based conversational pipeline. Across four retrieval strategies, four LLMs and six embedding models, we find that passage length is the main driver of performance, explaining 52-66% of the variance. A per-research-design analysis also shows that human and machine difficulty do not align: the designs that prove hardest for the system are not those on which expert annotators disagree most, pointing to two independent sources of task difficulty.
Sebastian Pohl, Harsh Mehta, Pranav Mambayil +4cs.CL cs.SI
LLMs are increasingly deployed as proxies for human study participants in social science experiments, yet the fidelity of this practice has rarely been tested directly. We test whether six LLMs can simulate individual human belief updates, comparing LLM outputs 1-to-1 against ground truth data from 391 UK participants on Prolific, who updated their stances on three discussion topics after reading Reddit comments. Each participant was simulated by an LLM conditioned on a persona derived from their demographic and personality trait data. We find that some LLMs (Qwen3-32B and GPT-5-Mini) can match the human post-stance distribution, but only when given participants' actual initial stances. All six models fail to simulate initial stances themselves and to produce faithful belief updates from self-generated stances. Three systematic biases emerge across all models: overrepresentation of neutral positions, more frequent but smaller belief shifts than humans, and a failure to rank comments by convincingness. Demographic and personality trait personas had no consistent effect on fidelity. LLM simulations of human belief dynamics are only reliable when grounded in realistic starting conditions, that current multi-round social media simulations rarely provide.
Meera Desai, Dallas Card, Abigail Z. Jacobscs.CY cs.CL
Large language models (LLMs) are reshaping social science methodology. Researchers increasingly prompt language models to generate quantitative measurements of social concepts, for example labeling data or simulating survey responses. Yet LLMs pose methodological challenges including bias, hallucination, and brittleness across contexts, with unclear threats to validity. Standard practices and norms for addressing these challenges are still emerging. We collect and systematically analyze validation practices in a comprehensive corpus of papers from eight flagship social science journals that use LLMs as measurement instruments. We find that LLM-generated measurements frequently play a central role in empirical analyses, yet validation practices are inconsistent and limited. We outline complementary strategies for more robust validation, pointing toward better norms and standards around the use of LLMs in social science.
Eun Cheol Choi, Youngrae Kim, Prabhu Pugalenthi +2cs.CL cs.CY cs.LG
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate social survey responses, yet their outputs exhibit systematic biases: marginal distributions are skewed, response variance is poorly calibrated, and predictor-outcome relationships are attenuated. We ask a simple question: given a small pilot sample of human responses, can an LLM recover the statistical characteristics of a broader population? We decompose recovery along three axes: structural fidelity, marginal fidelity, and individual fidelity. Using a COVID-19 misinformation survey as a case study, we benchmark three families of approaches: prompting, rectification, and fine-tuning. The findings suggest that fine-tuning on small pilot samples offers a balanced approach for achieving multiple forms of fidelity, but the levels of such fidelity can vary across subsamples, potentially threatening pluralistic alignment.
Tobias Holtdirk, Pietro Marcolongo, Anna Steinberg Schulten +7cs.AI
Reproducibility in the social and behavioral sciences is typically evaluated by independent researchers who reanalyze the original data to assess whether the published findings can be recovered. However, such approaches are resource-intensive and difficult to scale. Here, we show that large language models (LLMs) can automate reproducibility assessments. Using N=76 published studies with predefined claims from the behavioral and social sciences, we compare LLM-generated analysis with the original findings and human reanalysis. For 7 studies, the LLM could not produce a viable effect size estimate. For the remaining studies, our LLM pipeline recovered the original effect sizes in 41% of studies using a +/-0.05 tolerance in Cohen's d. Further, our LLM pipeline reached the same qualitative conclusion as the original study in 96% of cases, where conclusions indicate whether the reanalysis supports the original claim. For comparison, human reanalysts recovered the original effect sizes in 34% of studies and reached the same qualitative conclusion in 74% of cases. Together, these results show that LLMs can serve as a scalable tool for automated reproducibility assessment and provide a foundation for systematic auditing of empirical results in the social and behavioral sciences.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks once reserved for trained researchers, including hypothesis generation, specification choice, and drafting conclusions. We argue that the reliability of AI-assisted research depends not only on model capability, but also on how cognitive labour is structured between humans and machines. We study this problem through Human-in-the-Loop Economic Research (HLER), a decision architecture based on pre-commitment, decision sequencing, accountability, and attention allocation. In a pre-specified 2*4 factorial experiment with 280 complete research runs across four datasets, an unconstrained multi-agent baseline produced critical failures in 72% of runs. Using the same underlying model, the same agent decomposition, and identical prompts for the shared reasoning agents, HLER reduced the failure rate to 16% by imposing three architectural commitments: LLMs reason but do not execute data work, data and estimation are handled deterministically, and three human decision gates bind the workflow. Fisher's exact test rejects equality of failure rates at p<0.001. Reliability gains were largest on the least publicly represented dataset, a Qing-dynasty population register, consistent with a task-based production model with Frechet-distributed output quality. An 80-run ablation suggests that deterministic computation and human gates contribute independently, with exploratory evidence of complementarity. We interpret HLER as a research harness rather than an autonomous AI scientist: it sharply reduces failures, makes residual weaknesses more visible, and prevents unreliable claims from being advanced as publication-ready outputs.
The deployment of LLM-based agents in scientific analysis raises opposing concerns: that agents may reduce methodological diversity, or that they may amplify the analytic flexibility through which researchers reach motivated conclusions. We argue these worries target two empirically separable layers: a design layer of methodological choices, and a verdict layer in which a decision rule maps estimates to a substantive claim. We test both by running 20 independent executions of Claude Code and Codex on a prominent immigration and social-policy against a many-analysts human baseline. At the design layer, Codex matches human methodological diversity and Claude Code produces nearly three times as many specifications; both agents' effect estimates remain broadly aligned with the human consensus, and no agent model exactly matches any human model. A prompt-induced anti-immigration researcher prior reorganizes each agent's methodological decisions but, unlike for biased human analysts in the same data, does not shift aggregate estimates or final verdicts; nor do agents reroute along the methodological axes humans use to bias their estimates. At the verdict layer, an explicit confirmatory prompt flips Claude Code's verdicts from 10% to 90% support while leaving its coefficient distribution essentially unchanged, operating through rule omission rather than rule softening. AI agents can rival or exceed human methodological diversity at the design layer while remaining vulnerable at the verdict layer. In our setting, the locus of AI bias is not estimation but interpretation.
Recent anecdotal evidence suggests that AI coding agents can reproduce published findings when provided with original data and code; yet systematic evaluation across social sciences remains limited. Existing evaluation benchmarks are insufficient, either small or conflate agent performance with problems in the reproduction materials themselves, such as code that fails to execute correctly. Here we introduce SocSci-Repro-Bench, a benchmark of 221 tasks spanning four disciplines and 13 substantive domains, constructed from studies whose results are either fully reproducible with available materials or demonstrably non-reproducible due to missing data, allowing us to isolate agents' reproduction capacity. Evaluating two frontier coding agents, Claude Code and Codex, we find that both can reproduce a large share of social science findings, with Claude Code substantially outperforming Codex. These reproduction rates considerably exceed those previously reported for general-purpose LLM-based agents on comparable reproducibility benchmarks. Both agents also perform strongly on a reasoning task requiring identification of underlying research questions, and additional analyses suggest that results are not primarily driven by memorization. Providing the original paper PDF alongside replication materials modestly improves performance but introduces bias on tasks where reproduction is impossible. We also show that agents can be nudged toward confirmatory specification search through subtle prompt framing. Together, these findings suggest that at least some frontier coding agents can serve as reliable executors of computational workflows while underscoring the need for careful benchmarking and prompt design as AI systems assume larger roles in scientific production.
This position paper argues that the under-representation of social science tasks in contemporary LLM benchmarks limits advances in both LLM evaluation and social scientific inquiry. Benchmarks -- standardized tools for assessing computational systems -- are pivotal in the development of artificial intelligence (AI), including large language models (LLMs). Benchmarks do more than measure progress -- they actively structure it, shaping reputations, research agendas, and commercial outcomes. Despite this central role, the social sciences are largely absent from mainstream evaluation frameworks, even though scholars in these fields generate dozens of rigorously annotated, context-sensitive datasets each year. Integrating this work into benchmark design could significantly improve the generalization and robustness of AI models. In turn, models trained on social scientific tasks would likely yield better performance on classic and contemporary tasks in disciplines as diverse as history, sociology, political science or economics. This is all the more pressing as these disciplines are quickly turning to LLMs for assistance. To address this gap, we introduce BenCSSmark, a benchmark composed of datasets annotated by computational social scientists. By integrating social scientific perspectives into benchmarking, BenCSSmark seeks to promote more robust, transparent, and socially relevant AI systems and to foster efficient collaboration.