Proactive Road Safety Intervention in Australia: Predicting Risky Driving Hotspots from Connected Vehicle Data

Road safety monitoring has historically been reactive, relying on crash-record analysis after fatalities and injuries have already occurred. Proactive identification of high-risk locations and dangerous driving behaviour before incidents occur is a critical but underexplored challenge. This paper addresses this gap using connected vehicle telemetry data from Greater Sydney, Australia, to detect and forecast near-miss risky driving events at the Local Government Area (LGA) level. Risky driving is quantified through g-force thresholds (hard braking >0.6g, harsh cornering >0.47g, harsh acceleration >0.5g), and spatio-temporal heatmaps are constructed to identify high-risk zones. Eight predictive models are benchmarked across three families: ensemble learning (Random Forests, XGBoost, LightGBM), deep learning (LSTM, N-BEATS), and classical time-series methods (ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing, Prophet). ARIMA achieves the lowest mean absolute error (MAE: 162.21), performing comparably to LSTM (MAE: 163.92) and outperforming all ensemble methods, with N-BEATS reaching an MAE of 180.75. These results demonstrate that parsimonious time-series models are competitive with deep learning approaches when training data volume is limited. The study highlights the potential of IoT-based connected vehicle data to support proactive road safety interventions, with Sydney's inner and western LGAs (CBD, Parramatta, Bankstown) identified as persistent high-risk zones warranting targeted policy action.

Weakly Supervised Spatio-Temporal Candidate Discovery of Dairy Farm Sites from Seasonal Satellite Imagery

Farm site discovery from satellite imagery is a spatiotemporal candidate ranking problem because farm evidence is distributed across pasture, field boundaries, roads, buildings, and seasonal vegetation patterns. Direct farm labels are often incomplete, which makes fully supervised detection difficult. This paper proposes a weakly supervised pipeline for ranking dairy farm candidate clusters from seasonal Sentinel imagery and open map priors. The method uses aligned spring, summer, and autumn image tiles from County Cork, Ireland, with spectral bands, vegetation indices, built area indices, and a pasture channel. A Barlow Twins encoder learns multi-season tile embeddings without farm labels. In parallel, weak OpenStreetMap farm priors are split into a prior and a held-out set. Prior features support a rule-based tile score that combines farm proximity, seasonal pasture evidence, and summer greenness, while held-out features are reserved only for proxy evaluation. The rule score is smoothed over a spatial representation graph using geographic proximity and embedding similarity, and high-scoring tiles are grouped into ranked candidate clusters. From 26,722 valid tiles, the main run selects 535 high-confidence tiles and forms 71 candidate clusters. The top 5 clusters achieve 0.60 precision within 500 m and 0.80 precision within 1000 m of held-out OpenStreetMap farm features. The top 10 clusters achieve 0.40 precision within 500 m and 0.80 precision within 1000 m. The results show that seasonal representation learning and weak geographic priors can reduce large satellite image collections into compact candidate sets for human review.