Persistent entropy is the Shannon entropy of a persistence-based probability measure defined on a persistence diagram. However, its cross-entropy version is not naturally defined because two persistence diagrams generally have different event spaces. To bridge these event spaces, we combine a similarity function with persistence weighting to define an induced probability. The induced probability reflects information from one diagram on the event space of the other diagram and assigns unexplained probability mass to the unexplained event. Using the induced probability, we extend cross entropy to persistence diagrams, called persistent cross entropy (PCE). We establish the main properties of both the induced probability and PCE and prove stability theorems for both. Through three numerical studies, we show that PCE distinguishes diagrams with the same persistent entropy, separates causal directions in dynamical systems without constructing a joint persistent diagram, and can be used as a directional topology loss for knowledge distillation.
Modern AI models such as tabular foundation models and gradient-boosted ensembles can outpredict classical methods, but provide little basis for reasoning about their predictions. High-stakes decisions call for models that are both accurate and interpretable as built. Local linear modeling offers a path forward: a smooth regression function is locally well approximated by a linear one, allowing a linear fit near each query point to achieve high accuracy without sacrificing transparency. The challenges lie in learning what is "local" and developing statistical tools for interpretation. Here, we propose local distillation, in which a black-box "teacher" guides a regularized linear "student" model at each query point. The teacher (1) defines locality by upweighting training observations with similar predicted outcomes, and (2) anchors the fit with its prediction at the query point, included as a pseudo-observation whose weight is estimated from the data. For interpretation, we add a small amount of Gaussian randomization to the local objective and use refits to assess stability: selection frequencies identify reliable features at a query point, and clustering the randomized fits identifies stable subgroups across the data. Under the lasso penalty, we prove that this randomization yields feature-selection probabilities that are stable under small perturbations of the training responses. Across 17 benchmark datasets, local distillation nearly matches its AI teacher's accuracy while producing a sparse linear model at each test point. In a high-dimensional cancer gene expression example, the framework identifies patient subgroups whose local models use different genes; this heterogeneity is invisible to a global linear model, and difficult to surface in a black-box model.
Delta-Rule recurrent models maintain a fixed-size state, enabling $O(1)$ inference memory but potentially becoming unstable under extreme-context extrapolation. By tracking RWKV-7 over sequences of up to 100M tokens, we empirically identify a distinct failure pattern: \textbf{localized norm explosion atop a relatively sparse substrate}, rather than global state saturation. Analysis of the recurrent update suggests that persistent decay keeps weakly updated entries small, whereas uneven injections allow a few channels to accumulate extreme values. Motivated by this diagnosis, we propose \textbf{State Anomaly Neutralization (SANE)}, which applies adaptive $\tanh$ compression at chunk boundaries while preserving the intra-chunk parallel structure. Within a safe threshold range ($3 \le α\le 5$), SANE matches the baseline on 11 short-context reasoning benchmarks with no statistically significant degradation. After a 100M-token prefix, which exceeds the training length by over $24{,}000\times$, SANE retains functional reasoning ($33.46$--$35.56$) while the baseline encounters numerical overflow. In contrast, overly permissive thresholds ($α\ge 8$) remain numerically stable but lose reasoning capability entirely, showing that numerical stabilization alone does not guarantee functional reasoning and revealing a capacity--stability trade-off in state compression.
We study the stability of minimal representations of controlled stochastic processes (in particular, transducers) under perturbations. This question is motivated by recent experiments finding predictive-state structure in the latent representations of neural networks. We consider standard, linear and predictive transducers. We introduce notions of approximate homomorphism capturing local structural similarity between them, together with metrics comparing their induced dynamics (which we refer to as interfaces), and prove properties such as composability of the approximate homomorphisms. For standard transducers, we show that there exist simple interfaces for which there is no approximate homomorphism between the different implementations of the dynamics. In contrast, for every finite-rank interface $\mathcal I$, we prove that all minimal linear transducers implementing interfaces sufficiently close to $\mathcal I$ have an approximate homomorphism to the minimal implementation of $\mathcal I$, with error linear in the perturbation size. We prove an analogous stability result for predictive transducers under a residual metric using some mild hypothesis regarding the indistinguishability of the belief states. These results identify conditions under which canonical transducer representations are robust to perturbations, while showing that such convergence fails without additional structural restrictions. Under the assumption that these type of abstractions are embedded into the hidden layers of modern AI models, this gives some theoretical support to the hypothesis that their latent representations exhibit structural convergence.
Omar Abbadi, Rida Laraki, Panayotis Mertikopouloscs.GT cs.LG
We examine the interplay between ordinal, preference-based solution concepts in games and the long-run behavior of game dynamics, asking in particular to what extent the combinatorial data of a game -- its preference graph -- determine the outcomes of no-regret learning dynamics -- such as follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL). In one direction, we show that the skeleton of every dynamically stable set (i.e. the set of pure profiles it contains) must also be preferentially stable, that is, it must be closed under profitable deviations. We then ask the converse question: when do preferences determine the long-run behavior of the players' learning dynamics? We begin by showing that preferences characterize asymptotic stability in the case of subgames -- i.e. subsets of pure profiles obtained by restricting players' action sets. Beyond this case however, the equivalence between dynamic and preferential stability collapses: concretely, we construct a three-player game with a preferentially stable set whose span is dynamically unstable, showing in this way that preferences do not suffice as a criterion of dynamic stability. We then bridge this gap via the notion of resilience under aggregate deviations, an easy-to-check payoff-based condition that guarantees asymptotic stability of arbitrary spans of pure strategies.
3D bin packing rectangular items into standardised containers to maximise space utilisation under geometric shipping automation. Loading a furniture purchase into a personal vehicle is the same task, but under more complex conditions that standard container loading algorithms ignore. This paper addresses the physically stable placement under these realistic conditions with heterogeneous boxes (e.g. varying dimensions and weights) and occupied containers (e.g. groceries). This paper provides a real-world benchmark dataset and baseline model for the Heterogeneous furniture-in-vehicle packing task. The dataset uses real furniture company flat-pack packaging data covering a large number of catalogue products via family-level extrapolation with diversity length, widths, heights, and weights. We also propose a PackingGPT framework for packing as a sequential placement inspired by the Lego assembly process, where heterogeneous boxes of varying dimensions (bricks) are placed step-by-step into the irregular remaining cargo space (creations). Five baseline packing methods were tested on our dataset without considering the Centre-of- Mass (CoM) constraints. In sedan car simulations, 10-40% of placed boxes failed the stability check on average. When the LLP model was trained on packing sequences with CoM constraints enforced during placement, the failure rate dropped to 0.67% (SUV-500).
The alignment of Small Language Models (SLMs) in the 70--500M parameter range using reinforcement learning is often considered unstable, though the underlying failure mechanisms have not been systematically investigated. In the State-of-the-Art (SOTA) research, fifteen (model, corpus) configurations were trained using Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). The experiments included Pythia-70M, 160M, 410M and SmolLM2-135M, 360M on the TinyStories, CNN/DailyMail, and Wikitext-103 corpora. Three reproducible failure modes were identified in small-scale language models: silent LoRA parameter freezing in standard PEFT/TRL pipelines, numerical overflow in importance ratios when using bfloat16, and catastrophic policy collapse due to reward-model error. These issues were addressed using a merge-and-reinitialize adapter technique, float32 precision during PPO updates, and a three-layer safety mechanism comprising reward whitening, importance-ratio guarding, and weight rollback. In this paper, a capacity-headroom hypothesis is proposed, which states that PPO performance at the SLM scale depends on both a fluent supervised model ($\text{PPL}<20$) and a discriminative reward signal, rather than on the number of model parameters. The proposed system converged stably in all experiments and improved preference win rate over the SFT baseline in configurations with a fluent prior and an informative reward signal. Furthermore, it outperformed instruction-tuned baselines while requiring significantly less training data. All checkpoints, preference datasets, and training scripts are publicly released$^§$.
Hyemin Gu, Michael Tyrrell, Tuhin Sahai +1cs.LG stat.ML
We propose \emph{the sublinear-growth principle} for deep residual architectures -- a sharp stability threshold on the input-magnitude exponent of every residual block's velocity field: $$\|v(x, t)\| \leq c\,\|x\|^q + b, \qquad q \in [0, 1].$$ The threshold $q = 1$ is established via two independent arguments. Classical ODE theory gives a global forward flow on $[0, T]$ at $q \le 1$ and exhibits divergent velocity fields at any $q > 1$. The optimal-control analysis, via the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, sharpens this to a selection statement: the training optimum is bang-bang on the boundary of the admissible class, so the optimum at $q > 1$ blows up while the optimum at $q \le 1$ is safe by construction. The exponent criterion $q \le 1$ is thereby a necessary and sufficient condition for stable training. It clarifies architectural placements that ensure the stability of training and inference, explaining, for instance, the stabilizing role of layer normalization. The sublinear-growth velocity fields form \emph{the right function space} on which forward dynamics, adjoint sensitivity, and architectural composition are all well-controlled. An arithmetic of input-magnitude exponents under the five operations that build residual blocks enables efficient certification of $q_k \le 1$ at the level of architectural primitives, in place of ad hoc trial and error in the search for stable neural architectural designs. A parameter-free modification reduces the supercritical Mamba block from $q = 5$ to $q = 1$ without layer normalization, demonstrating this point. Experiments on Mamba and PatchTST confirm that the $q \le 1$ variants train stably: the criterion is the input-magnitude exponent, not the presence of a normalization layer.
In this paper, we present a comprehensive framework for assessing the explainability of various XAI methods, such as LIME and SHAP, across multiple datasets and machine learning models, with the ultimate goal of creating a unified multidimensional explainability score. Our methodology focuses on three key aspects of explainability: fidelity, simplicity, and stability. We leverage benchmarking experiments to systematically evaluate these aspects and use the insights gained to construct an offline knowledge base. This knowledge base captures the explainability scores for each registered model and serves as a valuable resource for context-dependent evaluation of explainability. By analyzing the complementary characteristics and metadata of AI models, datasets, and XAI methods, the knowledge base will enable the estimation of explainability scores for previously unseen datasets and models. Properties like fidelity, simplicity, and stability may vary significantly based on the dataset, underlying model, and domain expertise of the end user. We demonstrate our framework by applying it to three open-source datasets, discussing the implications of the obtained results in relation to the characteristics of the datasets. Our work contributes to the growing field of XAI by providing a robust and versatile tool for evaluating and comparing the explainability of various XAI methods, ultimately supporting the development of more transparent and trustworthy AI systems.
Retail demand forecasts are reused across replenishment, capacity, labor, and transportation planning cycles. Point-error objectives do not constrain abrupt movement between adjacent forecasts, while post-hoc smoothing acts only after model fitting. We ask whether a training-time penalty on consecutive within-series movement can improve horizontal forecast-path stability without materially changing point accuracy. The penalty is evaluated in a temporal-structured pipeline combining recent-demand embeddings with calendar, price, hierarchy, item, and store features. On selected M5 demand series at 1000, 3000, and 4000-series scales, the stability-aware hybrid model improves Forecast Stability Score over XGBoost by 6.91%, 6.66%, and 7.68%, respectively, while RMSE changes remain within 0.72% across three random seeds. Post-hoc exponential smoothing attains lower raw movement but incurs a larger RMSE cost; training-time regularization preserves more point accuracy and performs favorably under normalized stability. These findings extend forecast evaluation from point-error minimization toward an accuracy-stability trade-off perspective for operational retail forecasting.
High-throughput RLHF systems often decouple rollout generation from policy optimization, leading to the use of stale rollouts during learner updates. In this work, we study the effect of such staleness in asynchronous GRPO. We make the behavior policy explicit in the GRPO surrogate objective and distinguish between the surrogate-gradient mapping used by the learner and the true total derivative of a distribution-dependent population objective. Under assumptions of local boundedness, distributional smoothness, and behavior-policy smoothness, we show that stale rollouts introduce a per-step surrogate-gradient bias of order O(S * eta), where S denotes the maximum rollout lag and eta denotes the learning rate. We further derive a conditional collapse-time scaling law: when within-cycle drift remains below a batch-level clipping radius, collapse is governed primarily by cumulative learner drift T * eta; when the stale-rollout constraint is active, stability instead depends explicitly on S * eta. This yields a two-constraint stability condition eta << min{R_batch / (S * G_upd), R_crit / (T * G_upd)}, explaining why the maximum stable learning rate may appear weakly dependent on staleness in the horizon-limited regime.
As black-box models become foundational to modern research, ensuring their stability is paramount for the realization of trustworthy artificial intelligence. The inherent diversity of inputs - ranging from structured Gaussian distributions to complex data with unknown structures - poses a significant challenge: how to stabilize black-box outputs while effectively leveraging available prior information. This paper introduces a task-oriented randomization methodology that adaptively tailors its strategy to the underlying generative mechanisms of the input data, specifically addressing unstructured complexities. A comprehensive suite of stability guarantees is proposed. Beyond establishing rigorous theoretical foundations for stability, the research provides a detailed analysis of the intrinsic trade-off between stability and exploration. Motivated by the architecture of Large Language Models, the framework is further extended to top-k ranking problems. The validity and effectiveness of the proposal are demonstrated through extensive numerical simulations and applications to the real-world dataset.
Abdul-Rauf Nuhu, Parham M. Kebria, Vahid Hemmati +3cs.LG cs.AI
Generalization is a critical property of data-driven models, particularly deep learning models deployed in safety-critical applications. Robustness-based generalization bounds have gained attention as a principled way to link robustness properties to generalization performance, often in a data-dependent manner. However, most existing bounds suffer from vacuousness in practical settings, yielding loose upper bounds that greatly exceed the actual error rates and limiting their usefulness for real-world evaluation. While this issue is often attributed to the uncertainty term, a substantial part of the problem originates from the robustness term itself, particularly for the 0-1 loss. Existing approaches typically treat the robustness term as a global measure, ignoring its variation across different sub-regions of the input space. In this work, we propose a generalization bound that addresses this limitation by scaling the robustness term according to the number of stable and unstable samples within each sub-region. Our bounds incorporate both data- and model-dependent factors while maintaining practical relevance (yielding tighter upper bounds on true error). Experiments on models trained on the ImageNet dataset show that our bounds remain consistently non-vacuous and achieve the tightest estimates among existing methods, closely aligning with empirical performance across a range of robust deep neural networks.
Periodic hard target updates are among the most common stabilization devices in modern deep Q-learning. Recent studies suggest that target updates can improve stability in Q-learning with function approximation, including linear function approximation. We introduce and analyze the so-called $λ$-target update, obtained by averaging the $m$-periodic target update maps with $λ$-geometric weights $(1-λ)λ^{m-1}$, $λ\in [0,1]$. The endpoint $λ=0$ recovers the one-period target update, while the continuous endpoint $λ\uparrow1$ recovers projected Q-value iteration. We study this mechanism for Q-learning with linear function approximation, namely linear Q-learning, using a switching-system model and related tools. For clarity, the paper treats a deterministic version; the formulation extends to stochastic reinforcement-learning settings.
Mohammad Mahdi Salmani-Zarchi, Zahra Rahimi, Heshaam Faili +1cs.LG cs.AI cs.CL
Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards is ideal for multi-constraint instruction following, yet standard group-relative policy optimization (GRPO) becomes unstable under discrete, low-dispersion rewards, where within-group reward distributions are frequently homogeneous. We identify and formalize three pathologies of z-score group normalization in this regime: low-variance amplification, mean-centering blindness, and zero-variance collapse. To address them, we propose MDP-GRPO, which stabilizes learning through (1) multi-temperature sampling to increase reward dispersion, (2) dual-anchor advantages to restore gradients in homogeneous groups and stop mean-centering blindness, (3) prospect-theoretic shaping to bound updates and penalize violations based on Kahneman and Tversky's theory, and (4) asymmetric KL regularization. Evaluated on FollowBench, IFEval, and a curated multi-constraint dataset, MDP-GRPO outperforms standard GRPO, improving strict constraint satisfaction by up to 5.0% on Llama-3.2-3B. Our method also enables stable convergence with small group sizes while preserving general capabilities on MMLU and ARC.
Optimal transport (OT) provides a principled framework for mapping between probability distributions. Despite extensive progress, applying OT to large-scale data remains computationally demanding, and the resulting pointwise transport plans are often difficult to interpret. We introduce Optimal Mixture Transport (OMT), a scalable framework that shifts the transport paradigm from individual samples to mixtures of subpopulations, reformulating the transport problem as a strictly biconvex optimization with a unique global minimizer. We further establish theoretical guarantees on the stability of the OMT map, showing that bounded perturbations of the underlying distributions lead to bounded changes in the transport plan. By formulating subpopulations as exponential-family distributions, OMT decouples computational complexity from the sample size, scaling solely with the number of mixture components. We demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of OMT on a wide range of synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets, including image data and large-scale single-cell RNA sequencing measurements.
Sophia Xiao Pu, Zhaotian Weng, Chengzhi Liu +4cs.LG cs.CL
Self-play reinforcement learning trains language models on their own generated tasks, co-evolving a proposer and solver without human labels. Recent systems report strong reasoning gains, but collapse and instability are widely observed and poorly understood. The dominant response treats this as a reward-design problem. We argue instead that self-play stability is governed by two distinct levers: a data-level gate that decides which proposer-generated tasks enter the training pool, and the reward signal that updates the policy on tasks already admitted. Through controlled experiments on a Python output-prediction task and a deterministic-DSL twin task that strips pretraining priors, output ambiguity, and executor noise, we find the two levers are asymmetric. A strict gate is sufficient for stability under every reward variant we test, including a self-consistency reward with no access to ground truth; while no reward variant is sufficient once the gate is removed. This asymmetry exposes a counter-intuitive coupling we call the Grounded Proposer Paradox: a proposer with ground-truth access accelerates collapse faster than an ungrounded one when paired with a self-consistency solver, by concentrating training on clean tasks that form the fastest path to a spurious self-consistent attractor. Replacing the binary gate with a continuous strictness parameter $\varepsilon$ further reveals a two-stage phase transition: training-side metrics decouple at low $\varepsilon$, while validation accuracy holds until $\varepsilon$ is much higher. Data-level gating, not reward calibration, is the binding constraint on self-play stability.
Optimization is essential in deep learning. The foundational method upon which most optimizers are built is momentum-based stochastic gradient descent. However, it suffers from two key drawbacks. First, it has noisy and varying gradients, and second, it has an overshoot phenomenon. To address noisy gradients, Adam was proposed, which remains the most widely used adaptive optimizer. To address the overshoot phenomenon, a control-theory-based PID optimizer was proposed. To tackle both the limitations within a single framework, several variants of Adaptive PID (AdaPID) have recently been proposed. Although AdaPID performs well, it still inherits two critical drawbacks from Adam, namely convergence and stability issues. In this work, we address both these limitations. To fix the convergence issue, we uniquely integrate the idea of using a non-increasing effective learning rate into AdaPID (originally proposed in AMSGrad, an extension of Adam). To fix the stability issue, we innovatively integrate a gradient difference based modulation factor into AdaPID (originally proposed in DiffGrad, another extension of Adam). Combining both these ideas in AdaPID, results in our novel IAdaPID-ADG optimizer. We evaluate our proposed optimizer on multiple datasets, including benchmark datasets (MNIST and CIFAR10) and real-world datasets (IARC and AnnoCerv). The IAdaPID-ADG substantially outperforms all competing optimizers. Additionally, we perform an ablation study on the MNIST dataset to demonstrate the contribution of each added component.
This paper analyzes identifiability and stability for the drifting field underlying distributional matching in the Generative Drifting framework of Deng et al. First, we introduce the class of companion-elliptic kernels, which includes the Laplace kernel and is characterized by a second-order elliptic coupling between each kernel $κ$ in this class and its companion function $η$. For each kernel in this class and each pair of Borel probability measures, we prove that the drifting field vanishes if and only if the two probability measures are equal. We further show that this class consists precisely of Gaussian kernels and Matérn kernels with $ν\ge 1/2$. Second, by constructing counterexamples, we exhibit sequences for which mass escapes to infinity while the field tends to zero; in particular, control of the field norm alone does not guarantee weak convergence. Nevertheless, we prove that the only possible mode of failure is confined to the one-dimensional ray $\{c\,p:0\le c\le 1\}$. Consequently, weak convergence can be restored by imposing an asymptotic lower bound on the intrinsic overlap scalar, a linear observable defined by the kernel and the target measure.
Ioannis Bilionis, Ricardo C. Berrios, Luis Fernandez-Luque +1cs.AI
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) models used in clinical settings are increasingly deployed to support clinical decision-making. However, when training data become stale due to changes in demographics, environment, or patient behaviors, model performance can degrade substantially. While updating models with new training data is necessary, such updates may also introduce new risks. We evaluated the proposed monitoring framework on four publicly available U.S.-based Type 1 Diabetes datasets containing high-resolution continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data, comprising approximately 11,300 weekly observations from 496 participants under 20 years of age. All datasets included structured sociodemographic information. Using the prediction of severe hyperglycemia events in children with type 1 diabetes as a case study, we examine how different model update strategies can adversely affect model stability (e.g., by causing predictions to "flip" for a large number of cases after an update), increase arbitrariness in predictions, or worsen accuracy equity and the balance of error rates across subpopulations. We propose multiple dimensions for continuous monitoring to detect these issues and argue that such monitoring is essential for the development of trustworthy clinical decision support systems.