Eigenanalysis framework for autoregressive neural emulators of multi-scale chaotic dynamics

Neural autoregressive models have rapidly emerged as powerful emulators of high-dimensional chaotic systems, yet their long-term instability and error growth remain poorly understood, leading to ad-hoc solutions. Here, we develop an eigenanalysis framework that reveals the dynamical origin of this error growth. By analyzing the Jacobian of the learned one-step update map with respect to the state, we show how inference-time error growth, and thus model stability, is governed by its spectral radius. Direct-step architectures (models that predict the next state from the previous one) generically admit unstable eigenvalues with magnitudes exceeding one, explaining the rapid divergence of these widely used models. In contrast, integration-constrained models (where the time derivative is estimated and integrated with a higher-order integrator) collapse their eigenspectrum onto the unit circle, yielding neutral stability and a universal linear error-scaling law. The largest eigenvalue of this Jacobian provides an architecture-agnostic, a priori diagnostic of short-term skill, long-term stability, and spectral bias, without requiring an expensive rollout. Leveraging this theory, we introduce a stability-promoting loss that explicitly regularizes Jacobian-driven error amplification, improving both forecast accuracy and dynamical robustness. Demonstrated across $29$ models spanning two architectures, several explicit and implicit integrators, and multiple loss functions on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky system, our results establish a theoretical foundation for the design and evaluation of neural emulators of chaotic multi-scale dynamics. More broadly, our framework is a step toward the kind of a priori stability analysis that numerical analysis provides for discretizations of differential equations and that scientific machine learning currently lacks.

Reflected UAS: Corrected Deterministic Stability and Direct CTMC Drift Calculation

We analyze Reflected UAS routing for heterogeneous multi-server queues at fixed parameters under subcritical load. The deterministic surrogate is a reflected ODE on the nonnegative orthant, not the unconstrained drift equation. This reflected ODE has a unique boundary equilibrium characterized by a scalar consistency equation and a convex-potential representation; all trajectories converge to it. The older argument lifting deterministic Lyapunov descent to CTMC stability fails: the exact generator applied to the deterministic potential produces a boundary term absent from the reflected-ODE descent identity. We give a direct Foster-Lyapunov drift inequality for the CTMC using a weighted-quadratic function, bypassing the failed lift. At the benchmark parameter point, the boundary equilibrium matches the numerical attractor to machine precision, and the default Reflected UAS policy has lower mean queue length than UAS and JSSQ across independent seed blocks.

Reexamining zero-shot summarization: Empirical investigation of trustworthiness of LLM-summarizers

Zero-shot summarization using Large Language Models (LLMs) has significantly advanced the abstractive summarization task by producing coherent and fluent summaries. However, underlying stochasticity of the large language models raises concerns about the stability and trustworthiness of the LLM-generated summaries. This issue has become increasingly important due to proliferation of LLM-generated summaries in educational settings, where students and researchers summarize complex academic materials in zero-shot manner. We propose a novel two-level diagnostic protocol for benchmarking LLM-summarizers based on the stability of the generated summaries. At the lower level, document-level stability analysis is performed over multiple LLM-summaries generated under controlled environment, and the stability coefficient is computed. Each generated summary is scored for semantic and factual alignment with the original document, enabling estimation of stability along more than one dimensions. At the next level, observations from a stratified sample of documents drawn from the corpus are consolidated to estimate the stability index of the LLM-summarizer, which is the proxy for its trustworthiness. Our empirical investigation of three LLM-summarizers across three genres of documents reveals statistically significant differences in the generation-level variability among LLMs across summary evaluation metrics. This study advances the LLM-summarization research by evidential recognition of the stability problem in LLM-summaries and motivates further research towards development of robust, reliable and trustworthy LLM-summarizers.

Local Stability and Gaussian Smoothing of Quantized Neural Networks

We study Gaussian averaging as a smooth surrogate for quantized neural models. Under bounded local oscillation, we derive a local dimension-dependent bound on |f-g|, linking Gaussian smoothing to the stability analysis of discontinuous networks. We compute closed-form Gaussian averages of the rectified linear unit (ReLU) and sign activation functions, and illustrate the mechanism on a high-dimensional binary perceptron, where layer-preactivation aggregation under an explicit quantization-noise surrogate yields the Gaussian envelope used in inference-side smoothing and training-side smooth surrogate gradients.

Closed-Loop Knowledge Dynamics: An Operational Framework for Saturation and Escape

Feedback-driven loops support iterative improvement in large language models, reinforcement learning, and autonomous discovery, yet their gains often diminish under repeated internal feedback. We study why closed-loop knowledge systems saturate and what external information can move them beyond their current attractors. We introduce a three-level operational framework in which knowledge states $x_t$ evolve through transition kernels $K_θ$ indexed by a structural parameter $θ$. The governing structure is defined as the observational equivalence class of $θ$ induced by these kernels, while attractors and basins are properties of the fixed-$θ$ dynamics. A structural intervention changes $θ$ and produces a detectable kernel discrepancy on pre-specified probe states, making structural change falsifiable. Using a Lyapunov drift condition, we show that stable internal dynamics approach bounded stability regions with exponentially attenuated transients and a noise-controlled residual floor. We characterize escape through a metric condition on intervention-induced attractor displacement and a baseline-relative KL lower bound for increasing escape probability. This analysis also explains why conditional mutual information alone cannot certify escape: it measures variation among intervention-conditioned updates rather than departure from the no-intervention law. Case studies in LLM code repair, sparse-reward reinforcement learning, and Bayesian optimization use matched continuation controls to illustrate how feedback strength and alignment affect quality-improving escape. Our contribution is an operational connection among stability tools, measurable intervention effects, and cross-domain diagnostics.

Implicit Neural Networks as Static Controllers: Certificates and Performance Separation

Implicit neural controllers (INCs) are static feedback laws that are evaluated through an algebraic fixed point {equation}; they include as special cases neural network controllers. We propose a so-called implicit representation of neural networks as a key enabling device that exposes the controller as a trainable linear interconnection closed through a known static activation map, thereby making well-posedness and Lyapunov/IQC analysis mathematically easy to handle. For finite-dimensional LTI plants, we first develop a rigorous analysis theory for a given INC, including Perron--Frobenius and norm conditions for well posedness, LMI/IQC certificates for exponential stability, and LMIs for discounted infinite-horizon quadratic performance. We then formulate synthesis as a certification-compatible heuristic search: training is carried out under explicit well-posedness constraints, implicit-differentiation formulas provide gradients, and the resulting controller is accepted only after independent post-training LMIs or regional admissibility checks are feasible. Finally, we establish constrained-control separation results: for a specific scalar unstable plant with hard actuator bounds, an INC achieves a strictly smaller discounted infinite-horizon cost than any admissible finite-order dynamic linear controller. Additional results cover quadratic state-input costs, comparison with linear static output feedback, and computable upper/lower-bound certificates. Numerical examples illustrate the mechanism and the resulting certified performance.

LayerNorm as Implicit Gain Control in Looped Transformers

In pre-LayerNorm looped transformers, LayerNorm inside the recurrent block acts as an implicit gain controller: by coupling the block's local Lipschitz constant inversely to the activation scale, it renders the recurrence Jacobian non-normal -- asymptotically contractive at every verified fixed point even where its operator norm exceeds 1 -- so the true stability budget is the spectral margin, not an operator-norm bound. That margin depletes as the carry $ρ\to 1$, and a minority of initializations never converge to a fixed point at all, so the diagonal carry constraint $ρ(\bar{A}) < 1$ is necessary but not sufficient for convergence of the full recurrence. Training experiments across six tasks, including a controlled ablation, reveal that the linear carry is not the depth-memory mechanism: gradient descent routes memory through the block's more expressive nonlinear recurrence and leaves the stability-constrained carry at rest -- the carry's role is stabilization, not memory. We characterize the boundary of this claim: on tasks with axis-aligned per-channel structure, gradient descent does recruit the carry. All results are derived analytically and verified in a from-scratch, CPU-scale implementation; verification at larger scale is needed.

MAGE: Understanding Stability-Performance Trade-offs in Multi-component Prompt Optimization

How do different components of iterative prompt optimization interact, and what happens when they are combined? We investigate this through MAGE (Memory-Augmented Goal-directed Prompt Evolution), a controlled analysis framework for studying component interaction in prompt optimization. MAGE is not proposed as a superior optimizer in absolute terms; it integrates episodic memory, multi-objective Pareto selection, and adaptive evaluation as a platform for controlled ablation. Our experiments uncover a previously unreported phenomenon, the Prompt Optimization Coupling Effect (POCE): when multiple stochastic optimization signals operate within a closed reflective loop, they interact in ways that simultaneously improve performance and amplify variance, behavior that cannot be predicted by analyzing components in isolation. Three main findings emerge. First, failure-grounded reflection is essential: methods relying only on scores (OPRO) or abstract critique (Self-Refine) fail to improve prompts. Second, MAGE achieves 46.4% versus GEPA's 34.0% on GSM8K-Hard (+12.4%, P(MAGE>GEPA)=0.998, 5 seeds on gpt-4o-mini), with comparable variance (7.3% vs. 7.0%). Third, increasing candidate diversity reveals the clearest POCE signal: expanding the candidate pool from n=3 to n=5 improves mean accuracy by +21.6% while increasing variance by 3.7x. We further validate on Llama 3.1 8B and show POCE is headroom-dependent: when the base model already achieves high accuracy, variance amplification disappears. Finally, in low-data regimes (Ntrain=30), well-designed fixed prompts outperform all reflective optimizers, indicating that scaffold choice dominates optimizer choice. Our results suggest prompt optimization systems behave as coupled stochastic processes and should be evaluated in terms of both performance and stability, not just peak accuracy.

Stability of Flow Models for Graph Signals

Generating signals on graphs requires permutation-equivariant models that exhibit stability with respect to relative structural perturbations. While favorable stability properties of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been well documented, it is unclear how structural errors propagate through the dynamics of continuous generative flow models that are gaining traction for graph signal generation. In this paper, we analyze continuous normalized flow models parameterized by GNNs and show that permutation equivariance is preserved for both the resulting continuous-time ordinary differential equations and their discrete numerical approximations used as graph signal samplers. Our primary contribution is to derive explicit stability bounds on the generated probability distributions, which quantify how relative graph perturbations affect the final sampled signals. Motivated by these theoretical bounds, we introduce a stability-promoting regularized flow matching strategy that actively penalizes the spatial Lipschitz constant of the vector field during model training. Experiments using synthetic smooth signals on stochastic block model graphs and real-world fMRI signals on brain connectomes demonstrate that this bound-oriented approach yields generative models that are more robust to structural noise, without sacrificing output quality.

Persona Non Grata: LLM Persona-Driven Generations in MCQA are Unstable in Distinct Dimensions

Persona-driven generations (PDGs) have seen prolific use in research and industry applications, where a large language model (LLM) takes on a 'persona' while completing some task. While persona expressed through free-form text (like dialogue) has substantial work investigating stability or consistency, relatively, persona expressed in non-text-heavy outputs (like in multiple-choice question answering, or MCQA) is often overlooked. We work to address this gap, seeking to understand the instability of LLM PDGs in MCQA tasks. We develop three metrics investigating the performance, outcome, and question correctness stability, evaluating three distinct dimensions. Using these metrics, we find that instability varies consistently between model families and model size, and across question domains, with math/commonsense questions leading to greater instability. We also find task prompt format introduces more prediction instability than other hyperparameters, like temperature. Finally, we find that instability is related to task accuracy, and using our instability metrics, find different experimental settings that result in different best and worst personas for tasks, despite their similarity. This reveals the importance of checking hyperparameter instability in PDGs.

On the stability of scale-space metrics

We study the stability of a classical family of metrics defined over functions' Gaussian scale-space representations, focusing on the comparison of images (functions of two variables). These metrics have precedents both in harmonic analysis, specifically the theory of Besov spaces, and in classical methods of image processing; special cases are also known to be metrically equivalent to certain Wasserstein distances. We quantify these metrics' robustness to geometric deformations, and introduce rotationally-invariant versions that are stable to changes in angle when comparing tomographic projections. We also describe computationally efficient algorithms for evaluating the metrics from finite samples, and prove their robustness to additive noise. The results are illustrated through numerical experiments.

Effective Covariance Dynamics in Solvable High-Dimensional GANs

We study a solvable high-dimensional model of generative adversarial network (GAN) training in which a linear generator learns a low-dimensional subspace from data with structured latent covariance. Prior solvable GAN analyses assume unconditional signals with diagonal latent covariance; we extend the multi-feature discriminator setting to class-dependent, correlated, and non-zero-mean latent structure. For the quadratic energy discriminator, all such heterogeneity enters the dynamics through a probability-weighted effective second moment. We prove that the stochastic microscopic training process converges, in the high-dimensional limit, to deterministic ordinary differential equations governed by this effective covariance. In the matched-covariance specialization, the stability analysis yields a mode-wise solvable interval determined by the learning rates and noise level: learning begins when the leading effective eigenvalue crosses the lower threshold, while full recovery requires all relevant effective modes to remain within the interval. This reveals a signal-boosting mechanism: low-rank correlations can lift weak directions above the learnability threshold, whereas overly strong correlations destabilize recovery. Numerical simulations validate the ODE, phase boundary, and boosting mechanism. Experiments on MNIST, FashionMNIST, and CIFAR-10 further show that informed generator covariance improves alignment with the data-driven reference subspace.

Delayed Verification Destabilizes Multi-Agent LLM Belief: Instability Thresholds and Optimal Corrector Placement

Multi-agent large language model (LLM) systems often rely on verifier and critic agents to suppress hallucinations, but verification is delayed. During this delay, false claims can propagate through the agent network. We model this process as delayed consensus on a graph with grounded corrector nodes. Spectral decomposition by the grounded Laplacian yields a closed-form stability threshold for the verification dose: correction that is too strong or too delayed can turn consensus into oscillation. The most unstable regime occurs when the communication and verification delays coincide; for delay two, the threshold is the inverse golden ratio. The same framework gives a supermodular placement objective and a greedy (1-1/e)-approximation rule for assigning a limited corrector budget to influential nodes. Experiments across five open models confirm the predicted dose-delay oscillations. By contrast, grounded factual answering makes truth an absorbing boundary and eliminates the effect, suggesting that the instability is specific to signed-belief tasks while grounded verification remains stabilizing

Feedback-Coupled Memory Systems in Continuous Time

The Feedback-Coupled Memory Systems (FCMS) architecture formalizes closed-loop coordination through four abstract operators, two of which - the agent update operator $f_i$ and the environmental update operator $Ψ$ - are left axiomatically undefined in the original framework. To address this, $f_i$ is defined by Mechanism-Based Intelligence (MBI), where agents update locally through a decentralized price mechanism and economic principles, and $Ψ$ is defined by the Coupled Memory Graph Process (CMGP), a non-Markovian framework where the environment is treated as a physical substrate that records and responds to trajectory history coherently without external forcing. The resulting continuous-time FCMS instantiation achieves Lyapunov global dissipativity governed by the computable threshold $4β^2 < 2ημγ^2$. This generalizes both the discrete FCMS stability condition $4ηβ^2 < γ$ and CMGP's physical bifurcation threshold $α_c = 1/K$, confirming that memory dissipation must outpace feedback gain as a universal organizing principle. Numerical simulation with $N=2$ agents and mean-field validation at $N=10^6$ confirm the stability threshold and the self-reinforcing coordination cascade that emerges when it is violated.

Near-Lipschitz stability of the Kim--Milman flow map

We prove that the Kim--Milman flow map enjoys favorable stability properties with respect to variations in the target measure, provided that one of the target measures is sufficiently regular. Our results include stability in relative entropy, and more notably, Lipschitz stability in the $2$-Wasserstein distance up to a logarithmic factor. We complement our results with a general existence theorem for these maps for any target measure with finite second moment.

Service-Induced Congestion in Memory-Constrained LLM Serving

In large language model (LLM) serving, each request accumulates persistent graphics processing unit (GPU) memory during service as its key-value cache grows with every generated token. Under high concurrency, aggregate memory usage therefore increases endogenously over time: the service process itself creates future capacity pressure. When memory capacity is exceeded, systems evict active requests, discarding cached state and restarting them later, which wastes computation and reduces throughput. We develop a discrete-time dynamical model of memory-constrained LLM inference that captures admission, memory growth, and eviction under continuous batching. In the saturated-input regime, the system admits both eviction-free fixed points and limit cycles with evictions. For homogeneous workloads, we show that the eviction-free equilibrium is unstable and that, except for a Lebesgue-measure-zero exact-capture set, the system converges to a unique worst-case limit cycle that is asymptotically stable outside this exceptional set, with throughput losses as large as 50%. For heterogeneous workloads, we prove a stability criterion in the two-class common-input setting and explain how the survival-polynomial mechanism generalizes to multiple classes and heterogeneous-input lengths. Under an input-dominated scaling regime, coprime decoding lengths stabilize the eviction-free equilibrium, while non-coprime lengths create synchronized modes that drive instability. These results characterize when workload heterogeneity desynchronizes completions and helps stabilize memory-constrained serving. More broadly, we identify service-induced congestion as a structural instability mechanism and derive scheduling design principles for sustaining high throughput.

A Quantitative Approximation Framework for Flow Distillation in Diffusion Models

We develop a quantitative framework for diffusion distillation by viewing few step sampling as approximation through compositions of learned flow maps. For trajectory distillation of the probability flow ODE, we show that low noise multimodal regimes separate score approximability from dynamical stability: the score remains efficiently approximable, while small local errors may be strongly amplified by stiff flow dynamics. In a Gaussian mixture Ornstein--Uhlenbeck model, we prove time uniform \(L^p(p_t)\) score approximation by ReLU and ReQU networks with explicit polylogarithmic complexity, and derive a computable Lipschitz bound \(L(t)\) for the flow velocity. The stability factor \(\exp\bigl(\int_s^t L(u)\mathrm du\bigr)\) can grow exponentially as noise decreases and mixture separation increases. Comparing this certificate with a certified local Lipschitz budget for one step students identifies regimes of direct distillation difficulty, without implying an approximation lower bound. We also show that deep residual compositions control global transport error through propagated local errors, and that equalizing cumulative stability yields an optimal nonuniform segmentation. With eight segments, this grid reduces final mean relative MSE by up to \(51.9\%\) versus uniform grids.

Link Prediction or Perdition: the Seeds of Instability in Knowledge Graph Embeddings

Embedding models (KGEMs) constitute the main link prediction approach to complete knowledge graphs. Standard evaluation protocols emphasize rank-based metrics such as MRR or Hits@$K$, but usually overlook the influence of random seeds on result stability. Moreover, these metrics conceal potential instabilities in individual predictions and in the organization of embedding spaces. In this work, we conduct a systematic stability analysis of multiple KGEMs across several datasets. We find that high-performance models actually produce divergent predictions at the triple level and highly variable embedding spaces. By isolating stochastic factors (i.e., initialization, triple ordering, negative sampling, dropout, hardware), we show that each independently induces instability of comparable magnitude. Furthermore, for a given model, hyperparameter configurations with better MRR are not guaranteed to be more stable. Moreover, voting, albeit a known remediation mechanism, only provides a limited enhancement of stability. These findings highlight critical limitations of current benchmarking protocols, and raise concerns about the reliability of KGEMs for knowledge graph completion.

Ablating Archetypes: The Stability of Archetypal SAEs is an Artifact of Initialization and Metric Design

Dictionary learning with sparse autoencoders (SAEs) produces overcomplete bases from neural network activations that are often interpretable and reduces polysemanticity. However, features from SAEs vary substantially across random seeds -- a problem known as instability. Archetypal SAEs (Fel et al., 2025) were proposed as a general dictionary-learning intervention for more reliable concept extraction, and report more stable dictionaries at the end of training. We demonstrate that the stability claimed by archetypal SAEs is a result of setting identical initialization across multiple runs. Through our analyses, we attempt to clarify two distinct notions in mechanistic interpretability that may be ambiguously used: stability is agreement between two independently trained models, whereas stabilization is the convergence of independently initialized runs toward a common solution. This distinction is critical for mechanistic interpretability of natural language processing (NLP), where feature stability is increasingly used as evidence that SAE features are reusable units of analysis. Experiments from archetypal SAEs share a deterministic k-means decoder initialization, setting inter-run dictionary distance to zero before training begins. When this initialization is removed, the archetypal constraint provides no stabilization advantage in our setting. We further identify a preprocessing-dependent cosine geometry issue that complicates interpretation of endpoint stability metrics. Overall, our study supports the value of studying SAEs within the larger dictionary-learning tradition while showing that stability claims require trajectory diagnostics and initialization ablations.

A Queueing-Theoretic Framework for Stability Analysis of LLM Inference with KV Cache Memory Constraints

The rapid adoption of large language models (LLMs) has created significant challenges for efficient inference at scale. Unlike traditional workloads, LLM inference is constrained by both computation and the memory overhead of key-value (KV) caching, which accelerates decoding but quickly exhausts GPU memory. In this paper, we introduce the first queueing-theoretic framework that explicitly incorporates both computation and GPU memory constraints into the analysis of LLM inference. Based on this framework, we derive rigorous stability and instability conditions that determine whether an LLM inference service can sustain incoming demand without unbounded queue growth. This result offers a powerful tool for system deployment, potentially addressing the core challenge of GPU provisioning. By combining an estimated request arrival rate with our derived stable service rate, operators can calculate the necessary cluster size to avoid both costly over-purchasing and performance-violating under-provisioning. We further validate our theoretical predictions through extensive experiments in real GPU production environments. Our results show that the predicted stability conditions are highly accurate, with deviations typically within 10%.