LyEvO: Lyapunov-Guided Evolutionary Optimization for Safe and Robust Sim-to-Real Policy Learning

Training controllers that are safe and robust in simulation, and systematically assessing their readiness for real-world deployment, remain key challenges in sim-to-real transfer. To address this, we propose LyEvO, a physics-grounded framework that combines constrained Evolutionary Optimization and Statistical Model Checking (SMC)-based verification with Lyapunov-based stability analysis. Leveraging prior knowledge of the system dynamics, LyEvO uses Lyapunov analysis to compute an initial candidate stability region. An iterative loop then uses operational scenarios drawn from this region to jointly optimize and statistically verify a policy, and subsequently expands the region's boundaries based on the verification outcome. This integrated procedure provides a practical criterion for assessing deployment readiness. We evaluate LyEvO on Cartpole and 3D Quadrotor benchmarks through extensive simulations and targeted real-world experiments, demonstrating safe and robust sim-to-real transfer.

PAC Approximation and DIRECT Optimization for Parametric Markov Models

In this paper, we consider the parameter synthesis and optimization problem for parametric Markov decision processes (pMDPs), the extension of classical MDPs where exact probability values are replaced by parametric expressions. Computing the rational function $f_{\lsf}$ that maps parameter valuations to the satisfaction value of a PRCTL property $\lsf$ is a computationally expensive task, particularly for pMDPs where the optimal policy may vary across the parameter space. We adopt the \emph{scenario approach} to efficiently synthesize a probably approximately correct (PAC) approximation $\ApproxFunOfProperty{f}$ of $f_{\lsf}$: by sampling parameter configurations and solving a linear program, we obtain a polynomial approximation whose error margin $\margin$ is guaranteed, with prescribed confidence, for all but an $\errorRate$-fraction of the parameter domain under the sampling distribution. We further show how this PAC framework can be combined with statistical model checking (SMC), enabling the analysis of black-box parametric models. Building on the PAC approximation, we integrate the DIRECT (DIviding RECTangles) algorithm for derivative-free global optimization over the parameter space. We establish conditional optimality-gap guarantees: under explicit Lipschitz and PAC-good-set assumptions, the difference between the true optimum $f_{\lsf}(\parameters^{*})$ and the value found by DIRECT is bounded by a partition-diameter term and, in the PAC case, an additional approximation-error term. An empirical evaluation on 2997 benchmarks focuses on the new DIRECT-based optimization component. The results show that DIRECT variants solve fewer instances than the scenario optimizer, but on their common successful instances they often return slightly better objective values and usually run faster, while remaining close to the scenario values within the PAC margin.

Towards Agentic Agent-based Models: Feasibility, Performance, and Statistical Model Checking

Agent-based models (ABMs) rely on simple, explicit and reproducible rules for individual decision making, while complex collective behavior emerges from interactions among agents. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) make it tempting to replace, enrich, or perturb these rules with LLM-based agentic capabilities. However, this raises a methodological question: how does introducing LLM-driven decisions affect the reliability, computational cost, and behavior of ABM simulations? We investigate this for Mesa ABM models, a popular Python library for ABMs, analyzed by statistical model checking. Building on Mesa's integration with the statistical model checker MultiVeStA, we extend the classical Schelling segregation model with a hybrid population: ordinary agents classify neighbors using the standard symbolic rule, while one agent delegates this task to an LLM through tool calls. The LLM-enabled agent receives natural-language descriptions of neighboring agents and invokes tools that increment counters of similar/different neighbors; these counters determine its happiness according to the original Schelling dynamics. This provides a minimal but controlled setting where the semantic, operational, and computational behavior of LLM-based decisions can be studied inside an otherwise standard ABM. We report preliminary experiments with locally served LLMs of different sizes, showing that smaller models may fail simple semantic classification experiments or become operationally unusable during repeated tool-call generation, while larger tested models pass these preliminary checks. We discuss how statistical model checking can estimate classical ABM observables and quantify the impact of introducing agentic LLM components into simulation models.

SMC-ES: Automated synthesis of formally verified control policies

The deployment of autonomous cyber-physical systems in safety-critical environments requires closed-loop control strategies (i.e., policies) that are not only performant but also provably safe and robust. While learning-based methodologies such as Reinforcement Learning offer flexible and scalable approaches to automatically synthesize such controllers, they typically lack the formal guarantees necessary for safe deployment. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel simulation-based methodology to automatically synthesize policies with formal guarantees regarding performance, safety, and robustness specifications. Specifically, given a set of properties to verify, a confidence parameter $δ$ and an allowable failure probability $\varepsilon$, our method guarantees that the synthesized policy comes with a certificate: with confidence at least $1 - δ$, the probability of encountering a scenario where the given properties are violated is at most $\varepsilon$. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach by developing SMC-ES, an algorithm that integrates Evolutionary Strategies with Statistical Model Checking-based verification. We evaluate SMC-ES on a suite of continuous control tasks using Gymnasium and Safety Gymnasium testbeds. Results show that, at the price of a sustainable increase in computational cost, our algorithm provides formal guarantees regarding performance, safety, and robustness specifications, while performing competitively against leading model-free Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) and Safe-DRL baselines.

Confidence Sequences for Online Statistical Model Checking of Markov Decision Processes

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a classic model of decision making under uncertainty, exhibiting both non-deterministic choice as well as probabilistic uncertainty. Traditionally, exact knowledge of the underlying probabilities is assumed. However, this often is unrealistic, e.g.\ when modelling cyber-physical systems or biological processes. Here, statistical methods provide a way towards obtaining meaningful guarantees. The classical approach is to gather samples in the MDP, use these to draw statistical conclusions about the transition probabilities, and from there obtain bounds on the true value; then, if these bounds are too broad, repeat. However, existing implementations of this approach are either subtly incorrect or sub-optimal, and quite often both. We present several \emph{confidence sequences}, which are specifically designed for such \enquote{online} settings, implement all of them in an efficient tool, and show their practical applicability. In particular, we show that they outperform classical \enquote{union-bound} style approaches, and overall our implementation requires 50x less samples on average than previous state of the art.