Pointwise Majorization for sub-Weibull and Mixed Tail Processes with Applications in Quadratic Chaos and Ergodic Diffusions

Classical chaining controls an indexed stochastic process through a single worst-case bound, which can obscure substantial variation across the index set. We establish the first simultaneous pointwise majorization theory for Banach-valued processes with sub-Weibull or two-metric mixed-tail increments. For an anchored sub-Weibull process on a separable index space, write $v(t):=d(t,t_0)$. Given a reference measure $μ$, the envelope at $t$ is governed by the pointwise Fernique-Talagrand functional of order $α$, $Φ_{μ,d}^{(α)}(t):=\int_0^{4v(t)}(\log\frac{1}{μ(B_d(t,r))})^{1/α}dr$. $\forall δ\in(0,1)$, we obtain that $$ \mathbb{P}(\|Z_t\|\lesssim\{Φ_{μ,d}^{(α)}(t)+v(t)(\log(e/δ))^{1/α}\},\forall t)\ge 1-δ. $$ Our bound is determined by the pointwise complexity $Φ_{μ,d}^{(α)}$ rather than a global quantity. The result holds for every $α>0$ and does not involve dyadic logarithmic terms from peeling. For mixed tail processes, with fixed measures $μ_1,μ_2$ and $v_j(t):=d_j(t,t_0)$, $Φ_j(t):=\int_0^{4v_j(t)}(\log\frac{1}{μ_j(B_{d_j}(t,r))})^{1/α_j}dr, j=1,2$, for any $δ\in(0,1)$, we show that $$\mathbb{P}(\|Z_t\|\lesssim\sum_{j=1}^2\{Φ_j(t)+v_j(t)(\log\frac{e}δ)^{1/α_j}\},\forall t)\ge 1-δ.$$ Although the two regimes are coupled in the mixed tail condition, each retains its own pseudo-metric, reference measure, pointwise Fernique-Talagrand functional, and tail exponent. The proof tracks the index-wise costs of measure-generated admissible chains and synchronizes them through a nested common refinement. For applications, we derive matrix-specific bounds for centered quadratic chaos under pseudo-metrics induced by the operator and Frobenius norms, and observable-specific finite-time bounds for diffusion empirical processes.

Vocabulary Growth Fundamentals: Bernstein Functions and Hausdorff Sequences

We survey the theory of vocabulary growth founded in the setting of stochastic processes. In particular, we model the expected number of types through Bernstein functions and Hausdorff sequences. These classes of mathematical objects, defined by alternating signs of their derivatives or differences, can be related to continuous-time Poisson point processes and discrete-time IID processes, respectively. Building on previous accounts of the vocabulary growth, we integrate the broader theories of Bernstein functions and Hausdorff sequences and connect them with recently developed hapax rate models. In particular, we prove that the logistic hapax rate model has a non-negative spectrum and hence it defines a Bernstein function, thereby solving an earlier posed problem. We also analyze the limitations of the Bernstein--Hausdorff theory of the vocabulary growth by considering its generalizations under stationary and Weibull renewal processes.

Approximate Homomorphisms and Convergent Representations in Transducers

We study the stability of minimal representations of controlled stochastic processes (in particular, transducers) under perturbations. This question is motivated by recent experiments finding predictive-state structure in the latent representations of neural networks. We consider standard, linear and predictive transducers. We introduce notions of approximate homomorphism capturing local structural similarity between them, together with metrics comparing their induced dynamics (which we refer to as interfaces), and prove properties such as composability of the approximate homomorphisms. For standard transducers, we show that there exist simple interfaces for which there is no approximate homomorphism between the different implementations of the dynamics. In contrast, for every finite-rank interface $\mathcal I$, we prove that all minimal linear transducers implementing interfaces sufficiently close to $\mathcal I$ have an approximate homomorphism to the minimal implementation of $\mathcal I$, with error linear in the perturbation size. We prove an analogous stability result for predictive transducers under a residual metric using some mild hypothesis regarding the indistinguishability of the belief states. These results identify conditions under which canonical transducer representations are robust to perturbations, while showing that such convergence fails without additional structural restrictions. Under the assumption that these type of abstractions are embedded into the hidden layers of modern AI models, this gives some theoretical support to the hypothesis that their latent representations exhibit structural convergence.

Random Quadratic Form with random forcing: Metastable synchronization by noise

We study the Random Quadratic Form (RQF) on a sphere in the presence of random Brownian forcing. We show that the forcing does not effectively change the law of the process but affects the synchronization properties of the system. While the RQF without forcing exhibits partial synchronization due to the intrinsic symmetries, the introduction of an arbitrarily small forcing results in long-term symmetry breaking and leads to full synchronization. In this work we focus on the small forcing regime and recover the multiscale behavior of the two-point process. We show that in the first stage the model converges to an anti-polar configuration due to the symmetries of the RQF and in the second stage the two clusters meet due to the symmetry breaking phenomenon. The model is motivated by continuous-time machine learning models such as Neural ODEs and continuous-time formulations of transformers. In particular, the results of this work explain the role of the bias and the scale of its initialization.

On the Structural Limits of Machine Learning Decision Systems: An Information-Theoretic, Interaction-Based, and Stochastic-Dynamical Perspective

Machine learning procedures are commonly evaluated in terms of predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. However, their achievable performance is fundamentally constrained by structural properties of the underlying data-generating process, which are formalized in terms of informational bounds. In this work we examine intrinsic limits of data-driven decision systems from an information-theoretic and interaction-based perspective. We analyze minimal achievable error in classification through Fano-type bounds and precision limits in parametric estimation via the Cramér-Rao inequality, emphasizing that such limits depend on the underlying model rather than on algorithmic sophistication alone. We further discuss how implicit assumptions, such as independence, ergodicity, and distributional stability, affect the validity of inferential procedures. Building on interaction-based modeling principles, we review typical frameworks such as Markov Random Fields and potential based representations for encoding dependence mechanisms. We also describe decision systems, including LLM-integrated agent architectures, as feedback-driven stochastic processes where state-dependent dynamics may induce emergent macroscopic behavior. This perspective highlights the importance of having adequate models for the data as a prerequi- site for expanding predictive capability, and situates algorithmic learning within the informational limits imposed by the models.

Why Does the Future Branch? Identifiable Closure Tests for Stochastic Physical World Models

A calibrated stochastic world model can reveal how uncertain a future is without revealing why it branches. The same conditional future law can arise because an observation aliases physical states or because dynamics remain random after the declared full state is fixed. We prove that ordinary transitions cannot identify these two sources, even for a perfect probabilistic predictor. ClosurePairs makes them identifiable by crossing compatible microstates with repeated exogenous disturbances and estimating state, noise, and state-noise interaction variance. The central consequence is operational: under finite hierarchical sampling, forecast difficulty governs the useful compute scale, while the alias/process composition provides complementary information about its direction-resolving the current state or sampling future randomness. ClosurePairs recovers source attribution at unchanged likelihood, reduces equal-budget decomposition error in a nonlinear interaction benchmark, and supports observation-only routing. On exact-marginal MetaWorld twins, an output-only allocator is at chance while a Closure-supervised probe on frozen JEPA-WM features routes 89.8-100%. In an independent ManiSkill PushCube confirmation, a stochastic RSSM's outputs and latents remain at chance, whereas an RGB-only Closure probe routes 100% under both ID and geometry/camera OOD over five seeds, matching direct allocation rather than exceeding it. Across five unseen allocation menus, the same Closure probe routes 92.5%/90.4% ID/OOD with no new oracle labels, versus 37.9%/32.9% for a frozen direct allocator. ClosurePairs is therefore an identifiable, reusable mechanism target that cannot be recovered from forecast quality alone.

Operator Neural Jump ODEs: $L^2$-optimal prediction in function spaces

In this paper, we study the extension of Neural Jump ODEs to infinite-dimensional function spaces. In particular, the underlying process $X$ now takes values in $L^2(Ξ, \mathbb{R}^{d_X})$ instead of $\mathbb{R}^{d_X}$ and the Operator NJ-ODE approximates the optimal predictor of this process by producing a representative of the conditional expectation. The NJ-ODE model is a framework for online learning the optimal prediction of continuous-time stochastic processes, given discrete, possibly irregular and incomplete past observations. In a series of works, this model has been extended to deal with generic path-dependent processes, with observation noise and dependent observations, with long-term predictions, and with input-output systems. However, throughout all of these works, the underlying processes were restricted to be finite-dimensional. In particular, function-valued problems, like yield curve or volatility surface predictions, could only be handled through discretization, which inherently leads to a loss of information. In this work, we build on ideas from Neural Operator methods that allow us to extend the NJ-ODE framework to an infinite-dimensional output process. To prove convergence of the NJ-ODE to the optimal prediction process, we develop a new approximation strategy that also generalizes previous works in the finite-dimensional setting by considerably weakening the assumptions.

Interpreting Quantum Learning Models via Stochastic Processes

Quantum machine learning models define probabilistic input--output maps through coherent quantum evolution and measurement. While such models can exhibit computational advantages, their internal functioning and decision making generally resists interpretation in terms of stochastic trajectories through intermediate configurations. In contrast to classical (Markovian) stochastic processes, quantum dynamics generically violates the Chapman--Kolmogorov divisibility condition, preventing a decomposition into probabilistically meaningful intermediate transitions. We develop a probabilistic framework for representing quantum learning models as stochastic processes over configuration spaces where the dynamics are modeled as linear maps on probability distributions. Starting from a fixed POVM, arbitrary quantum channels induce transition kernels on the associated probability representation. For informationally complete POVMs, and in particular SIC-POVMs, these kernels are Markovian but generally quasi-stochastic, with non-classicality appearing as negativity. By contrast, projective spaces admit positive stochastic kernels but generally require non-Markovian dynamics due to the failure of Chapman--Kolmogorov divisibility. This yields a trade-off between negativity and dependence on past configurations, i.e. quantum dynamics can be represented either by Markovian quasi-stochastic maps or by positive stochastic processes with higher Markov order. We discuss how such representations of quantum dynamics can be interpreted as stochastic walks through a memory space in the spirit of Projective Simulation, a model of learning and agency in which decisions arise from random walks over an episodic memory network. We further outline how finite-order stochastic kernels can approximate such quantum deliberation processes and show in what regimes the classical machine learning model is recovered.

NeuralChaos: Optimal Adapted Approximation of Square Integrable Predictable Processes

We address fundamental challenges in representing and computing $\mathbb{R}^{d}$-valued predictable square-integrable processes over $[0,T]$, collected in the space $\mathcal{H}^2_T(\mathbb{R}^{d})$. These processes are central to continuous-time stochastic control, reinforcement learning, and mathematical finance. Although Wiener-chaos expansions offer strong theoretical tools, traditional computational methods are hindered by the need for large chaos dictionaries and high-order iterated integrals. To overcome these obstacles, we introduce NeuralChaos -- a neural operator architecture that produces elements of $\mathcal{H}^2_T(\mathbb{R}^{d})$ using only finitely many evaluations of the driving Brownian motion, while preserving predictability and square-integrability. We prove that NeuralChaos is dense in $\mathcal{H}^2_T(\mathbb{R}^{d})$ and achieves the best $N$-term chaoslet approximation rates for compressible and Malliavin--Sobolev regular processes. Moreover, compressibility is shown to be typical for processes from $\mathcal{H}^2_T(\mathbb{R}^{d})$ under non-degenerate sub-Gaussian sampling. In contrast, we show that finite-dimensional Markovian neural SDE models constitute a meagre and Gaussian-null subset in $\mathcal{H}^2_T(\mathbb{R}^{d})$, regardless of discretization, whereas compressible processes are generic. Numerical experiments on a stochastic optimal control problem and dynamic hedging highlight the practical effectiveness of our approach. Our results enable more efficient and expressive modelling in stochastic analysis and mathematical finance.

LatentFlow: A General Framework for Conditioning Stochastic Processes

Stochastic-process models are, as a rule, far easier to simulate than to condition. Non-linear observations, non-Gaussian likelihoods, black-box information, and global constraints all induce intractable conditional laws, requiring bespoke, model-specific constructions. We introduce LatentFlow, a single framework for conditioning stochastic processes, with no learned neural approximations and no training. Our starting point is to write the stochastic process as the deterministic image of a tractable latent innovation, $f_0 = T_{\vartheta}(ξ_0)$, with $ξ_0$ sampled from a simple reference distribution. This reduces process-level conditioning to latent-space inference: pull the likelihood back through $T_{\vartheta}$, sample the resulting latent law with a tractable guided probability flow, and push the samples forward. This construction is provably exact at the level of the target law; in practice, approximation enters only through finite terminal noising, Monte Carlo guidance, and time discretisation of the continuous-time dynamics, each of which is explicit and systematically reducible. As LatentFlow is training-free, conditioning reduces to solving a single reverse-time SDE. This enables conditional sampling in seconds on a single desktop CPU across model classes that have never shared a scalable method: classical spatial priors, nonlinear stochastic dynamics, mechanistic models from the physical and life sciences, stochastic PDEs, heavy-tails and extremes, point and discrete-state processes, and neural or simulator-defined processes.

Probabilistic Signature Inversion: Learning Conditional Distributions from Truncated Signatures

The signature transform is a principled feature map for continuous-time paths, valued for its uniqueness and universality. Recovering a path from its truncated signature is, however, structurally ill-posed because the truncated signature map is not injective. We therefore reframe truncated signature inversion as a probabilistic problem -- learning the conditional distribution of a path given its truncated signature -- and adopt a signature-conditioned flow matching model as a practical estimator. This probabilistic formulation elucidates the fundamental difficulty of inversion: Bayes reconstruction error quantifies the irreducible uncertainty remaining after conditioning on a statistic. We derive the Bayes-optimal error under linear statistics, obtaining a closed form for log-GBM and numerically tractable formulas for log-fBM and OU, yielding a concrete theoretical baseline for model validation. This baseline upper-bounds the Bayes error under truncated-signature conditioning, since truncated signatures provide richer information than linear statistics. Experiments show that empirical reconstruction errors under linear-statistics conditioning faithfully align with the theory-derived baseline, while errors decrease when the statistic is replaced with truncated signatures. Moreover, generated paths faithfully recover the conditioning signature while preserving key distributional and temporal structures, indicating that the estimator is well-calibrated to the target conditional distribution. Together, these results establish a well-posed probabilistic framework for truncated-signature inversion, with applicability demonstrated on real financial data beyond the parametric process families covered by theory.

Quantum enhanced rare event discovery and sampling

Financial crashes, cascading failures in infrastructure, and critical errors in AI systems are frequently triggered by events that occur with extremely small probability. Efficiently discovering and sampling events with probability below a threshold is therefore of critical interest. Yet this task is highly non-trivial using existing classical or quantum methods. Being rare, such events require an immense sampling overhead to collect sufficient data samples. Moreover, because the rare events are not known in advance, they cannot be flagged for amplification using standard techniques. Here, we introduce a quantum algorithm for rare-event discovery and sampling without first learning which events are rare. The algorithm achieves the optimal quantum scaling with the rarity threshold. We further demonstrate that this can achieve a quadratic speedup for heavy-tailed systems whose tail has nonvanishing total mass, and translates into a robust polynomial speedup for stationary stochastic processes, with the exponent determined by its entropy-rate structure.

ABC: Any-Subset Autoregression via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

Stochastic Scaling Limits and Synchronization by Noise in Deep Transformer Models

We prove pathwise convergence of the layerwise evolution of tokens in a finite-depth, finite-width transformer model with MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) blocks to a continuous-time stochastic interacting particle system. We also identify the stochastic partial differential equation describing the evolution of the tokens' distribution in this limit and prove propagation of chaos when the number of such tokens is large. The bounds we establish are quantitative and the limits we consider commute. We further prove that the limiting stochastic model displays synchronization by noise and establish exponential dissipation of the interaction energy on average, provided that the common noise is sufficiently coercive relative to the deterministic self-attention drift. We finally characterize the activation functions satisfying the former condition.