Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) methods such as Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs), Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), and Universal Differential Equations (UDEs) are most effective when structural priors reflect reliable governing dynamics. We ask what happens when this assumption is violated. Using macroeconomic forecasting as a stress-test domain, we evaluate five model families, ARIMA, LSTM, NODE, PINN, and UDE, across 23 countries using sparse annual data, multiple temporal splits, and five random seeds. Our results show that none of the evaluated models achieve consistently strong forecasting performance, highlighting the difficulty of low-frequency macroeconomic prediction. However, a clear relative hierarchy emerges: less-constrained models, particularly ARIMA and NODE, consistently outperform more-constrained heuristic-prior models such as PINN and UDE. Rather than treating this as a rejection of SciML, we interpret it as a diagnostic result: structural priors can act as misregularizers when they do not match the data-generating process. We identify failure modes including prior misalignment, regime shifts, structural breaks, and optimization instability, and argue that SciML practitioners should test whether structure helps before assuming that more structure is beneficial.
Semi-supervised hierarchical clustering aims to learn a tree structure consistent with data patterns and user-provided supervision. Supervision is usually given as leaf-level relations, such as pairwise must-link/cannot-link constraints or triplet-wise must-link-before constraints. Although useful for regulating local sample relations, such supervision does not directly indicate which samples should form coherent subtrees. Consequently, the non-leaf structure of the learned tree may deviate from the hierarchical organization preferred by ground-truth labels. To address this limitation, we propose a semi-supervised hyperbolic hierarchical clustering method with set-level structural priors. The main contribution is to introduce sets as basic modeling units for hierarchy learning. Each set denotes samples expected to cohere within a subtree and is induced from leaf-level supervision together with a learned constraint-consistent similarity structure. These sets act as soft structural priors for subtree-level supervision, allowing supervision to guide non-leaf hierarchy formation beyond local leaf-level relations. Specifically, we first learn constraint-consistent embeddings to obtain a reliable set partition, then construct constraint-induced sets and estimate inter-set similarities to form set-level structural priors. Finally, these priors are incorporated into a hyperbolic hierarchy objective for continuous tree optimization. Experiments on eleven benchmark datasets and ablation studies show that the proposed method consistently improves label consistency over representative hierarchical clustering baselines while also enhancing similarity-based tree quality.