Retail supply chain operations rely on coupled decision modules that must adapt as requirements evolve. LLMs offer a natural-language interface for this task, but existing methods primarily focus on individual optimization models. Extending them to heterogeneous decision pipelines is challenging because a requirement may admit multiple intervention paths with different downstream effects. We formulate requirement-driven adaptation as the joint selection of an intervention route and an admissible module-level change, and propose a graph-constrained agentic framework in which domain agents expose admissible reformulation interfaces and a central processor searches over bounded intervention paths. Candidates are validated and compared using downstream KPIs. In collaboration with a large retail partner, we evaluate 100 warehouse requirements elicited from practitioner interviews, with GPT, Qwen, and DeepSeek as base LLMs. Relative to direct LLM reformulation, our framework improves correctness and end-to-end success across all three models, raising end-to-end success from 72--76% to 79--83%.
Shuze Daniel Liu, David Simchi-Levi, Claire Chen +2cs.LG
Modern supply chain operations can require coordinating replenishment across thousands of heterogeneous items under correlated stochastic demand, heterogeneous lead times, and shared fixed ordering costs, yielding observation spaces exceeding $10^4$ dimensions. At this scale, rolling-horizon stochastic mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs) become prohibitively slow, while standard reinforcement learning (RL) methods face increasingly challenging credit assignment in high-dimensional action spaces. We introduce OR-Transformer, a deep reinforcement learning framework for joint replenishment under stochastic demand, with an item-permutation-equivariant Transformer architecture and pathwise-gradient training through the inventory dynamics. Across problem sizes up to 1,024 inventory items, OR-Transformer increasingly outperforms learning-based and rolling-horizon MILP baselines as scale grows. It also reduces online decision-making time by over 4 million times relative to MILP solvers, enabling real-time, large-scale deep RL in supply chain operations.
Ema Salkić, Alexander Fichtl, Philipp Ulrich +3cs.CL
Semiconductor supply chains face escalating risks from geopolitical tensions, geographic concentration, and rapid technological shifts, yet no scalable system continuously extracts, structures, and prioritizes risk intelligence from public corporate disclosures. We present an end-to-end pipeline that retrieves corporate documents for semiconductor companies and uses large language models (LLMs) to extract the risks and opportunities they describe. It organizes these into a knowledge graph linking each item to its category, sources, and related events, then merges duplicates and ranks them with a three-layer mechanism combining an algorithmic formula, an LLM relevance adjustment, and expert validation. Applied to five companies across the value chain, the pipeline produces 76,207 scored items, of which an independent check finds 92.6% valid. The automated rankings match expert judgment at an average Spearman correlation of 0.55 for risks and 0.72 for opportunities, and the resulting matrices identify trade restrictions as the dominant cross-company risk.
Enterprise deployments of autonomous AI agents inherit a control model built for human users and long-lived services, and the fit fails in three specific ways: agent principals are ephemeral, appearing and vanishing faster than provisioning; their actions are selected by a model rather than programmed, so the set of things they may attempt is not known in advance; and the population is discovered rather than provisioned, because anyone who can call an API can create one. We argue that governing such agents is a runtime problem -- not a model-alignment problem and not a build-time problem -- and we derive five primitives from the questions that must be answered before an action takes effect and after it has: discovery, identity, governance, attestation, and supply chain. For each we state what fails if it is absent and why the others cannot structurally supply it. We describe an implementation in which an agent's action is mediated against policy before it takes effect, authorised against a per-tenant action vocabulary, and recorded in a hash-linked signed ledger a third party can verify with the vendor out of the loop. We report what the architecture costs: the enforcement point sits on the request's critical path, identity requires a sidecar per workload, and fail-closed mediation converts availability incidents into denial. We are explicit about implementation status: four primitives are built and running in private pilots, and the fifth is built as separate tooling and not yet integrated into the request path. We keep it in the set deliberately: a five-part decomposition that exactly matches what its authors happened to build is not a taxonomy but a description of a codebase.
Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has become a prevalent paradigm for scaling Vision Transformers efficiently. To ensure computational scalability and prevent expert overload, Vision MoE architectures employ a capacity-bounded token dispatch mechanism, where each expert's processing budget depends on the inference batch size. This work identifies this batch-dependent behavior as an overlooked attack surface, and proposes a stealthy supply-chain backdoor attack that exploits this property through a three-phase framework. First, we inject a backdoor into an early MoE layer. Second, we train a neutralizer in a deeper MoE layer that suppresses the backdoor under normal capacity. Third, we configure a batch-adaptive capacity factor that preserves high capacity for small batches while reducing it for large batches, naturally disabling the neutralizer via token overflow at deployment-scale batch sizes. The attack remains in dormant mode during small-batch security audits and enters activation mode during large-batch deployment. Experiments on V-MoE and Swin-MoE across ImageNet-100 and GTSRB demonstrate activation-mode attack success rates of 76-87% with dormant-mode ASR below 9%, while evading Neural Cleanse, STRIP, Fine-Pruning, and Activation Clustering. Our findings reveal a fundamental security risk arising from batch-dependent execution in scalable Vision MoE architectures.
Large language model providers are compute constrained, and their universal response to congestion is to degrade service: route queries to smaller models, cut reasoning effort, truncate context. The industry's accounting says this saves money. We show the accounting is wrong, because it prices a query when the customer buys an answer. A degraded answer fails with some probability, and a failed answer either returns as a retry, inflating arrivals when the system is most loaded, or departs as churn, destroying lifetime value on a ledger no cost dashboard displays. We model inference allocation with three classical primitives: a newsvendor whose stockout cost is churned lifetime value, a geometric retry multiplier in which the recycled product is dissatisfaction, and a two-regime transient queue whose arrival rate is made endogenous by retries. Statically, there is a nonempty, measurable regime in which a cheaper model saves energy per satisfied answer while consuming strictly more capacity per satisfied answer, so the discount inverts exactly when capacity binds. Dynamically, a reactive throttle fired during a surge can cross an ignition threshold beyond which it manufactures more traffic than it sheds, and a release rule set below the degraded equilibrium converts a transient surge into a permanent degraded regime. With heterogeneous customers, throttling is a transportation problem in retry-inflated load whose optimal policy rations intelligence by critical ratio, class by class, and whose dual, the shadow price of intelligence, prices a marginal query by class and by hour; closed-form trajectories make it computable in milliseconds. Stochastic analysis sharpens rather than erodes the thesis: the ignition boundary acquires a predicted width, and noise punishes the reactive policy that parks the system against it. Under congestion, throttling is not a cost lever but a demand lever.
Federated deployments of variational quantum classifiers are attractive for cross-organisation risk prediction in supply chains, because raw data never leaves the client, yet data-protection regulations such as the GDPR grant clients a right to request that their contribution be removed from a trained model after the fact. Retraining a federated model from scratch to honour such a request is correct but wasteful, and it is not obvious which quantum circuit parameters actually carry a given client's influence. We introduce Entanglement-Weighted Pruning (EWP), an unlearning procedure for quantum federated learning that scores every trainable circuit parameter with the product of two signals: the diagonal entry of the quantum Fisher information matrix estimated on the target client's data via the parameter-shift rule, and a structural entanglement weight associated with the parameter's gate. Parameters with the lowest scores are pruned, optionally followed by a short fine-tuning pass on the retained clients. We implement the full pipeline in Qiskit for a four-qubit data-re-uploading ansatz trained with FedAvg across five simulated supply-chain-risk clients, and benchmark EWP against full retraining, fine-tuning alone, random pruning, Fisher-only pruning, and entanglement-only pruning, over three random seeds. EWP attains a mean post-unlearning accuracy statistically indistinguishable from the full-retraining oracle, while producing a lower forgetting score and requiring roughly 16 times less wall-clock time. Ablations over pruning threshold, client count, and non-IID strength show that combining the two signals is necessary, as entanglement-only and Fisher-only pruning each substantially degrade accuracy relative to EWP.
Detecting or attributing a supply-chain disruption is not the same as selecting the intervention that maximizes recoverable net value. We present CriticalSCM-Bench v1, a controlled synthetic benchmark with causal ground truth, paired factual/counterfactual rollouts, and an explicit net-value objective. Relative to a full-information train-selected static benchmark, LambdaMART improves median normalized net value by 5.7--16.2\%, with paired statistical support on the semiconductor and critical-material archetypes but not on digital infrastructure. On digital infrastructure, a domain-informed constant-buffer policy remains stronger, showing that greater model complexity is not uniformly justified. Across partial and delayed settings, LambdaMART retains 33--75\% of full-clamp value. Stress tests further show that intervention fidelity, timing, cost, and held-out disruptions can alter policy ordering. Critical materials show the weakest out-of-distribution retention. Separately, a guarded explanation study over 540 generations preserves every fixed intervention decision after deterministic validation and template fallback, although exact wording remains unstable. Within this controlled setting, the results identify regimes in which adaptive ranking adds value and those in which simpler structural policies remain preferable.
This paper presents a methodological framework for real-time climate risk assessment using data-driven nowcasting techniques to enhance supply chain resilience in Colombian agricultural contexts. Climate variability in Colombia, characterized by irregular rainfall, temperature fluctuations, and recurrent extreme events, has a direct impact on agricultural production and logistics, particularly for time sensitive crops. The proposed approach integrates short term climate forecasting based on historical meteorological observations with supply chain risk modeling to establish a conceptual early warning system architecture. A prototype implementation developed in a controlled computational environment demonstrates the feasibility of the framework using historical meteorological and agricultural time series derived from official statistics and reanalysis products, without reliance on satellite imagery or computer vision components. The methodology addresses the integration of climate nowcasting with supply chain decision making through explicit risk mapping, threshold-based categorization, and stakeholder-oriented risk signals. Results from synthetic and historical data experiments indicate that short term precipitation nowcasts can be translated into actionable risk indicators for agricultural supply chains, supporting anticipatory decisions related to inventory, sourcing, and transport.
Autonomous agents are increasingly used to execute consequential tasks in environments governed by operational constraints, organizational policies, regulatory requirements, and technical standards. Their safety is therefore determined not by the correctness of individual actions, but by whether their overall behavior remains consistent with the rules and invariants of the systems in which they operate. As large language model (LLM)-based agents become more autonomous and increasingly delegate tasks across organizational boundaries, securing them evolves from a single challenge into a broad and interconnected landscape spanning the entire agentic stack. At the single-agent level, untrusted inputs through prompts, memory, retrieved knowledge, and tool interfaces create attack surfaces. In multi-agent settings, delegation and communication introduce challenges related to identity, trust, capability control, and decision transparency, while the underlying model routing and execution control plane remains vulnerable to manipulation and to unverified model provenance. Perhaps the most fundamental challenge is behavioral containment: sequences of individually permissible actions may collectively violate system-level constraints and safety invariants. At the broader level, supply-chain integrity, provenance, accountability, and end-to-end observability remain largely open problems. A common principle unifies these directions: security must become a verifiable property of the architectures, protocols, and runtimes that govern agent behavior, rather than an optional layer of guidance. Charting these challenges provides a roadmap toward trustworthy autonomous agent deployment.
Cristhian Kapelinski, Beatriz Machado, Diego Kreutzcs.CR cs.AI cs.CY cs.OS cs.SE
Docker Hub is the registry underneath most container deployments, and a flaw in a widely reused base image is inherited by every image built on it. Prior ecosystem-scale measurements each rely on a single detector, leaving the tool-dependence of their counts unquantified, while the studies that do compare scanners use samples of tens to hundreds of images. We present ChimangoScan, a pipeline that crawls the Docker Hub namespace (12,716,568 repositories, 663.8 billion cumulative pulls), reconstructs the image layer graph (54.4 million IS_BASE_OF edges), ranks images by an exposure score that folds an image's own pull count and those of its entire downstream subtree into one scalar, and scans the 52,895 highest-exposure repositories (84.7% of all recorded pulls) with six independent scanners, yielding 170.4 million findings. Vulnerabilities are near-universal: 96.3% of images carry a known package vulnerability, 93.4% a critical one, and 98.0% at least one CIS Docker Benchmark misconfiguration. The posture a single tool reports is largely an artifact of that tool: of 80.7 million distinct (vulnerability, package) groups, 66.8% are flagged by only one of the three vulnerability scanners and just 2.7% by all three, and the best single scanner recovers 66.9%. TruffleHog flags a secret in 76.9% of images, yet hand-labeling 1,100 random detections finds 99.7% are non-credentials. A single zlib CVE reaches images carrying 47.3% of total corpus exposure and propagates to 1.13 million distinct downstream images, but exposure does not predict how vulnerable an image is. We release the pipeline and the 283 GB dataset.
Can supply-chain AI move beyond isolated decision modules toward unified operational planning? A complete replenishment plan specifies which products each location carries, which upstream facility supplies it, how often it is replenished, and how deliveries are routed. These decisions are operationally coupled: the selected assortment changes the demand and load passed to later stages; source assignment and replenishment frequency reshape the delivery requests; and route feasibility and cost, in turn, determine the system value of the earlier choices. Yet in modern supply chains, these decisions are often handled by separate departments and optimized through separate systems, which can lead to stockouts, inventory exposure, and avoidable transportation. We propose SCOPE: Supply-Chain Operations through Coupled Policies for End-to-End Coordination, a composite policy model that represents supply-chain entities as tokens, contextualizes them through a shared operational representation, and maps each token type to the corresponding decision interface. Each decision builds on the partial plan formed by earlier decisions while the completed plan is evaluated using a shared system-level utility. We instantiate this framework in urban fresh-retail replenishment, where service frequency, assortment, capacity pressure, and road-network routing interact strongly, and evaluate it on real operational data from Dingdong and JD.com, two large-scale supply chains operating at different replenishment echelons. Across both settings, SCOPE consistently outperforms methods that optimize each decision stage separately, as well as practice-oriented baselines commonly used in supply-chain operations. These results show that learning and coordinating cross-department operational couplings lead to more effective end-to-end supply-chain decisions.
The responsible development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) systems requires rigorous documentation of their constituent artifacts, e.g., datasets, model weights, training pipelines, and runtime dependencies. Although the Software Package Data Exchange (SPDX) 3.0 standard introduced native support for AI and dataset profiles, practical tooling capable of generating standards-compliant AI Bills of Materials (AIBoMs) in an automated and extensible manner remains scarce. This paper presents AIGen, a modular AIBoM generator that produces machine-readable, interoperable inventories of AI system components that comply with the SPDX 3.0 AI profile. AIGen works on top of the MLflow MLOps framework and combines mining heuristics with Large Language Models to generate AIBoMs. A plugin interface allows practitioners to extend the tool with domain-specific collectors without modifying the core codebase, supporting heterogeneous AI frameworks such as Hugging Face, PyTorch, and TensorFlow. AIGen is designed to facilitate compliance with the European Union AI Act, the NIST AI Risk Management Framework, and ISO/IEC 42001, providing a concrete, reusable foundation for transparent, accountable AI supply chain governance. Tool URL: https://github.com/danielebifolco/AIGen Tool Video: https://youtu.be/\_nAbXDWfVL4
As LLM agents move from decision support to autonomous procurement, firms need to know whether delegated negotiators create value, divide it predictably, and avoid money-losing contracts. We study this in a canonical supply chain bargaining problem: a buyer with private demand information negotiates a quantity-payment contract with an uninformed seller. We benchmark nine LLMs from OpenAI, Google, and Alibaba against a validated Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium across 9,840 LLM-to-LLM negotiations. First, capability governs value creation. Agents agree in 98.9% of negotiations and capture 95.4% of first-best surplus undiscounted, but average 2.98 rounds against the benchmark's 1.25, and this delay erodes 21-34% of surplus. Capability also governs reliability: baseline models accept individually irrational contracts in 19.2% of cases, versus 0.0-0.6% at mid-tier and flagship, making automated profit verification the binding guardrail below that threshold. Second, surplus capture is relational. Provider identity predicts who captures surplus better than capability rank: self-play buyer shares average 40% for OpenAI, 50% for Google, and 70% for Alibaba's Qwen, an ordering that survives restricted communication and no discounting. Reversing which provider sells moves the division by 7-18 percentage points, and the capable Qwen flagship is the weakest cross-family seller: vendor choice is a first-order distributional decision. Third, the prompt is a strategic lever. Delegation separates the principal's economic patience from the agent's prompted strategic patience, a free deployment choice that is the single strongest driver of surplus division (90% of explained variance). Together these establish an equilibrium-referenced audit of AI agents along three dimensions: discounted efficiency, distributional profile, and operational reliability.
For years, supply chain planning at e-commerce firms has operated as a collection of isolated projects. Each planning task from static network planning to dynamic warehouse assortment planning requires analysts to spend weeks building models from scratch, calibrating and persuading executives to act on outputs they cannot verify. Three barriers drive this: bespoke models proliferate because standardization is difficult (operational fragmentation); once unified, the combinatorial scale of millions of SKUs, thousands of nodes, and intricate routing logic exceeds what solvers can handle within a tight window (computational intractability); and a mathematically optimal solution still fails to be implemented if the executives do not trust it (implementation hurdle). To bridge this gap, we propose and implement the Simulation-Propose-then-OR-Dispose method, deployed as JD.com's NetSim platform. The central insight is decoupling: simulation proposes by generating and evaluating the full set of operationally valid candidate paths-absorbing all idiosyncratic business logic, while an integer program disposes by selecting the globally optimal subset. Computationally, matrix-vectorized CPU/GPU accelerated simulation achieves a 10-100 times speedup over serial methods, and a list scheduling algorithm reduces coupled-order processing from hours to minutes. Operationally, we establish a closed loop via an intelligent diagnosis engine. Since 2025, NetSim has optimized end to-end services for over 20,000 suppliers, the cross-regional fulfillment rate dropped from 6.1% to 4.9%, and the average monthly carbon reduction is approximately 5,745 tCO2e. SPORD moves simulation from monitoring to active planning. The transparent outputs turn skeptical executives into engaged collaborators, and the modular architecture ensures that the next planning requires just configuration, not reconstruction.
Delay-risk models are usually judged by predictive accuracy. What matters in practice is narrower: with capacity to review only a few shipments, which ones should a manager check first? We evaluate whether machine learning clears a demanding no-model baseline: inspect the highest-value shipments first. Across three real supply-chain contexts: SCMS procurement, DataCo logistics, and Olist e-commerce, we use leakage-controlled rolling-origin evaluation and 1000-sample paired bootstrap confidence intervals. Ranking by predicted delay severity times known value (M1) beats severity-only ranking in all three datasets, yet it does not generally beat value sorting. At a 10% review budget, M1 minus VALUE_ONLY is -5.5 percentage points (pp) for SCMS, +10.1 pp for DataCo, and -4.9 pp for Olist. The divide is consistent with severity learnability: DataCo has R^2 = 0.27 and calibration bias of +0.01 days, whereas SCMS and Olist have R^2 of approximately -0.02 and negative calibration bias. Nested-CV cost-sensitive retraining does not deliver a stable improvement over M1. Rather than proposing a new learning algorithm, this paper presents a deployment diagnostic and evaluation protocol. Value sorting should remain a permanent benchmark, and ML should be deployed only after severity learnability and calibration have been audited and the model clears that gate under leakage-controlled rolling-origin evaluation.
Christopher Wang, Sebastien Ouellet, Behrouz Haji Soleimani +1cs.LG cs.AI
Supplier lead time forecasting is a central input to material requirements planning, inventory optimization, and supply chain risk management. However, many industrial lead time datasets are naturally right-censored: at the time forecasts are required, some orders have not yet arrived. Standard regression and classification approaches discard this information, while conventional survival models require task-specific modeling. We propose LeadTime-ICL (LT-ICL), a censoring-aware in-context learning model for probabilistic lead time forecasting. LT-ICL combines a transformer backbone with a conditional normalizing-flow head, producing a full predictive distribution over lead times. The model is pretrained on synthetic right-censored lead time tasks, enabling in-context adaptation to new industrial datasets without task-specific parameter updates. We provide theoretical support for this formulation by showing that excess CRPS is bounded by prior misspecification and amortized approximation errors, providing clear direction for improving forecasting performance. We evaluate LT-ICL on 24 proprietary supply-chain datasets spanning seven industries. LT-ICL achieves the lowest point-forecasting error on 15 of the 24 datasets, and the lowest probabilistic forecasting error on 14 datasets, yielding the best average rank across both. These results support right-censored probabilistic forecasting as a practical formulation for supplier lead time prediction and demonstrate that pretrained in-context models can provide accurate, low-adaptation-cost forecasting for industrial planning systems.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a powerful, differentiable class of learning models for graph-structured systems. Their ability to generalize across topologies opens the prospect of a surrogate for combined structural and parametric optimization, which classical metamodels cannot offer. Supply chains are a natural target, yet the use of GNN surrogates for supply chain problems is largely unexplored. This paper lays the foundation, presents initial steps, and discusses key research directions. As a foundation, we formulate the problem and create a large public training dataset of programmatically generated supply chain graphs with input parameters and steady-state performance metrics obtained using our SupplyNetPy simulation library. As initial steps, we explore GNN architectures that work well as surrogates for node- and network-level predictions, and analyze their accuracy-compute trade-off against simulation. Most importantly, we outline the exciting directions this opens, namely gradient-based optimization over topology, fast design-space exploration, and sensitivity analysis.
LLM agents are increasingly evaluated on multi-week decision tasks in which the state that drives cost is never directly observed. On such tasks the final cost cannot say why an agent failed: it may have misread the world, or read it correctly and still failed to act (the knowing-doing gap). Existing evaluations cannot separate these two failures; their reference policies either read privileged information the agent never sees, or are missing altogether. We introduce STOCKTAKE, a 26-week supply-chain replenishment benchmark built as a factored partially observable Markov decision process with six hidden factor processes, designed so that a fair reference policy is computable: an exact Bayes filter per factor drives a rollout policy on the identical observation stream the agent receives. Scoring each run between a symptom-blind base-stock floor (0) and this oracle (1) yields a skill score, and grading each week's written rationale yields a stated-belief detection lag and a knowing-doing rate, so state estimation and control are measured separately. On fifty seeds with curated stress profiles, Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.4, DeepSeek-V4-Pro, and Grok 4.5 detect 84-88% of hidden failures, typically within a week of onset, yet span skill scores from 0.62 to -0.23: two of the four end below the symptom-blind floor while naming factors slightly faster than the two that beat it. The failure has two faces. Where stress persists, 34-43% of correctly diagnosed stress weeks still end in stockout for every model, a rate that partly reflects the severity of the weeks models notice. That rate also runs opposite to skill: the two models under the floor stock out least on diagnosed weeks, so under-response is only one face of the gap, and their traces point to the other, responses whose cost exceeds what they protect. STOCKTAKE measures both directions of that failure.
Joshua R. Waite, Dana Golden, Brett Indelicato +8cs.AI
Agricultural supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions through linked biophysical and economic systems. We develop an AI-powered tool that integrates economic models (GTAP) with biophysical models (APSIM) to analyze supply chain shocks, enabling policymakers and market participants to assess cross-disciplinary impacts through queries and responses written in natural language.
This paper introduces SupplyNetPy, an open-source, well-documented Python library for modeling and discrete-event simulation of supply chain networks with arbitrary multi-echelon structures. It supports multiple replenishment policies, perishable inventory, node disruptions, and stochastic demand and lead times. All components are extensible via inheritance. Users describe a supply chain as a graph with node and link attributes, while the library handles simulation, providing logs and extensive node and network level performance reports. This paper presents the motivation, design, key features, and architecture of SupplyNetPy, along with detailed validation results (against analytical benchmarks, a commercial tool, and a published case study). A key motivation behind SupplyNetPy's development is programmatic generation and simulation of complex models, enabling design-space exploration, what-if analysis, training data generation, and supply chain digital twins.
Balance-oriented multi-warehouse inventory allocation is a recurring decision problem in large-scale e-commerce supply chains, in which a fixed replenishment quantity is distributed across warehouses to balance post-allocation inventory coverage while accounting for demand forecasts and heterogeneous allocation constraints. In practice, allocation requirements are often scenario-dependent and expressed in semi-structured or natural-language form rather than as ready-to-solve operations research (OR) formulations. We propose an OR-guided Large Language Model (LLM) for Allocation (ORLA) that uses solver feedback to generate, verify, and select OR formulations. ORLA integrates automatic "Problem-Model-Code (PMC)" generation, learning-based formulation selection, and feasibility restoration. We develop three complementary mixed-integer programming formulation families based on deviation minimization, soft band compliance, and knapsack-inspired allocation, together with solver-ready mixed-integer linear programming reformulations, modular constraint extensions, and a penalty-based relaxation mechanism for infeasible cases. The LLM component generates candidate formulations and executable solver code from textual or semi-structured specifications, while the solver provides verification signals for executability, feasibility, and solution quality. To address instance heterogeneity, ORLA estimates the expected quality of candidate formulations, selects promising candidates, and combines their outputs through score-aware aggregation. Experimental results on 29 production evaluation batches from JD.com show that the best single OR formulation improves allocation accuracy by 3.4 percentage points over the incumbent approach, while the full ORLA framework achieves a 4.5 percentage-point overall improvement and improves allocation accuracy in 26 of the 29 evaluation batches.
Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up. This study develops a machine learning framework to forecast such volatility by incorporating supply-chain-aware features and explicitly modelling the country's two cultivation seasons, Maha (October-April) and Yala (May-September). An integrated dataset was constructed by combining retail and farmer-gate prices with origin-aligned weather variables, diesel costs, and exchange rates across 12 vegetable varieties and 14 market centres from 2013 to 2019. A gradient-boosted ensemble model (XGBoost and LightGBM) was trained and optimised using Optuna, and unified and season-specific configurations were compared. Results show that season-specific models improve within-season fit, with the Yala-specific model achieving the highest R2 of 0.9420 (95% CI [0.690, 1.000]), while the unified model delivers the best overall predictive accuracy of 90.84% (95% CI [88.34%, 91.52%]) and an R2 of 0.9281 (95% CI [0.760, 1.000]). Notably, the unified model maintains 85.96% accuracy on a completely unseen 2024 hyperinflationary period without retraining, successfully tracking major price surges. These findings suggest that agricultural price movements in import-constrained markets are meaningfully predictable when models capture supply-chain dynamics, offering practical value for early warning and decision making by farmers, traders, and policymakers. Existing studies on Sri Lankan vegetable prices are confined to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) applied to single markets, with no supply-chain features, seasonal segmentation, or cross-regime validation.
Meta-reinforcement learning is a promising approach to multi-objective optimisation because it enables rapid policy adaptation across changing environments and preference settings. However, conventional few-shot methods usually fine-tune from a single shared meta-policy, which can reduce solution diversity and limit exploration of the Pareto front, especially in high-dimensional combinatorial problems such as supply chain optimisation. We propose a population-based Meta-reinforcement learning framework that combines decomposition with evolutionary search in scalarisation weight space. The framework maintains a population of weight vectors, each associated with a distinct meta-policy trained through gradient-based meta-learning, and iteratively refines this population through elitist selection, crossover, and mutation guided by hypervolume and entropy contributions. We evaluate the method in a multi-objective supply chain setting with conflicting economic, environmental, and social goals, and further test its generality on standard reinforcement learning problems. The results show that the proposed approach yields more diverse, better distributed Pareto front approximations, improves cross-task adaptation, increases hypervolume by up to 32\% over Meta-multi-objective reinforcement learning in the complex case, and attains the lowest average Hausdorff distance among all compared methods.
Henry Bodwell, Hong Yang, John C. Simeone +7cs.IR cs.AI cs.CY
Illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing (IUU) traditionally refers to fishing activities that violate applicable laws or occur in areas that lack applicable laws. We propose the term IUU+ to capture a broader suite of fisheries sector environmental and associated supply chain trade-related crimes and behaviors. Although IUU+ activity is widely recognized as a serious threat to marine ecosystems, markets, and livelihoods, a quantitative understanding of these incidents, e.g., their frequency, geography, species, actors, and patterns in the type of illicit activity, remains difficult to obtain. We propose IUU+DB, a large language model driven system for building a global incident database of IUU+ activity. The system ingests heterogeneous documents, classifies whether they describe relevant incidents, extracts key data elements such as actors, locations, species, vessels, violations, and enforcement outcomes, and supports deduplication and trend analysis. Case studies and validation results show that IUU+DB can help organize fragmented evidence, surface geographic and behavioral hotspots, support fisheries-domain specific research in academia and non-government organizations, assist source and species risk assessments for industry, and provide support for policy implementation and targeted enforcement efforts to government agencies.
In skill-constrained production-inventory systems, the qualified human capacity available tomorrow depends on training decisions made today: production requires certified workers, certifications decay unless maintained, and training consumes the same scarce worker hours that production needs now. We study a closed-loop skill-constrained model predictive controller that, at every shift, solves a finite-horizon mixed-integer program over production, inventory, backlog, and training, with binary predicted certification, hard production eligibility, and an interpretable terminal value that prices certified-capacity gaps at the horizon boundary; only the first-period action is applied before replanning. On synthetic, seed-controlled SkillChain-Gym scenarios - announced and surprise new-skill shocks, demand shocks, absenteeism, forecast- and availability-quality modes, capacity-boundary and training-rate sweeps, and negative controls - we evaluate the controller against production-only and maintenance-only ablations, static cross-training insurance plans, and a strong reactive heuristic, under an ex-ante locked configuration and paired statistics. The result is regime dependence, not superiority: no policy class dominates. Predictive control helps when skill or labor bottlenecks are forecastable early enough for training to complete; lean static insurance remains hard to beat under surprise shocks, near the demand-capacity boundary, and wherever pre-shock slack makes insurance cheap. Attribution ablations separate certification maintenance, re-acquisition of lapsed certifications, and greenfield skill acquisition. Forecastability, not adaptivity per se, decides when predictive control pays.
The rapid proliferation of machine learning model reuse has transformed the AI ecosystem into a highly interconnected supply chain. Traditional compliance tools and static reports struggle to navigate these massive, multi-hop dependency networks. To address this, we present AI Supply Chain Galaxy (AISCG), an interactive 3D visual analytics system for model provenance and compliance auditing. AISCG maps models into a 3D spatial layout, integrating explicit structural dependencies with a rule-based compliance engine. It supports multi-scale exploration, from global community detection to localized, path-aware lineage tracing. We demonstrate its efficacy through an ecosystem-scale empirical analysis of 908,449 models from Hugging Face. Our findings reveal a concerning landscape: 55.46% of models exhibit compliance risks or metadata conflicts/omissions. We also identified distinct risk patterns, including a 56.67% license omission rate in adapter derivations and an 8.05% "license drift" rate in fine-tuning. Through a case study on the complex Llama model family, we show how AISCG empowers analysts to intuitively trace inherited restrictive terms and identify root causes across deep topological networks, significantly reducing the cognitive load of compliance auditing.
AI agents in supply chains face a fundamental epistemic gap: large language models (LLMs) interpret policies but lack physical grounding, while reinforcement learning (RL) optimizes flows but is semantically blind to unstructured constraints. We introduce REFLECTICHAIN, bridging this gap through a Generative Supply Chain World Model (SC-WM) - encoding heterogeneous supply networks into a 6-dim graph-latent space with physical conservation - and Double-Loop Learning that separates epistemic uncertainty (KL-trust-region-bounded policy adaptation) from aleatoric uncertainty (stochastic latent rollouts). On Semi-Sim, a 10-node semiconductor benchmark with SIR risk propagation, 6 perturbation types, and 10 policy constraint templates, REFLECTICHAIN improves Rationale Consistency Score by 33.0% (p < 0.0001, d = 2.78), maintains 82.3% operability under adversarial shocks, and exhibits anti-fragile behavior (+40.2% gain under moderate pressure). We identify three operational epistemic mechanisms - uncertainty separation, knowledge-boundary detection, and empirical Bayesian policy updating - and discuss five limitation categories.
Pharmaceutical supply chains (PSCs) struggle with inventory management (IM) due to unpredictable demand patterns and variable lead times associated with restocking. This complexity is further compounded by the finite shelf lives of pharmaceutical products, which necessitate a delicate balance between adequate stock and minimal waste. These intertwined factors create a complex optimization problem that requires sophisticated inventory strategies to ensure both product availability and PSC efficiency. This study aims to develop an optimal inventory replenishment policy for pharmaceutical products that can handle the stochasticity arising from uncertain demand and variable PSC conditions. The objective is to maximize the profitability of the PSC while maintaining a high patient service level. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and propose a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach, specifically, a hybrid asynchronous advantage actor critic distributed proximal policy optimization (A3C DPPO)algorithm. The A3C DPPO algorithm is tailored to handle the continuous action space inherent in IM. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm adaptively updates the inventory replenishment strategy under dynamic scenarios, resulting in lower inventory costs compared to various benchmarks. We also conduct numerical validation using real-world pharmaceutical inventory data to confirm the practical feasibility of the proposed algorithm.
Mohd Sameen Chishti, Damilare Peter Oyinloye, Jingyue Lics.SE cs.AI
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as core dependencies in software systems. However, the hosted LLM services evolve continuously through provider-side updates without explicit version changes. These silent updates can introduce behavioral drift, causing regressions in functionality, formatting, safety constraints, or other application-specific requirements. Existing approaches focus primarily on regression testing or versioning but do not provide deployer-side mechanisms for governing compatibility during opaque model evolution. This paper proposes a deployment-side governance framework based on three components: clearly defined rules for how the model is allowed to behave (production contracts), focused testing organized by deployment risk categories (risk-category-based testing suite), and release checkpoints that block updates unless they meet defined safety and performance standards (compatibility gates). Through exploratory validation across multiple LLM versions, we provide evidence that targeted testing in specific risk areas can uncover performance regressions that overall metrics miss. We also identify several open research challenges, including how to systematically build effective test suites, how to set reliable performance thresholds in non-deterministic systems, and how to detect and explain model drift when providers offer limited transparency. Overall, we frame LLM update management as a software supply chain governance problem and outline a research agenda for putting deployer-side compatibility controls into practice.