Do Cantonese-Adapted Language Models Better Predict Cantonese Reading? A Cross-Model Eye-Tracking Evaluation

Information-theoretic measures derived from autoregressive language models are widely used to characterize the expectations that shape human reading, but whether language-variety-specific training improves such psycholinguistic alignment remains unclear. This question is still open for Cantonese, where recent NLP evaluations reported mixed benefits from Cantonese-specific training relative to Mandarin-oriented or general-purpose models. Using naturalistic Cantonese eye-tracking data, we compare two within-family adaptation contrasts: CKIP GPT-2 Tiny versus its lightly Cantonese-adapted JED351 derivative, and Qwen2.5-7B versus CantoneseLLM-7B, which underwent substantially more extensive Cantonese continued pretraining and instruction tuning. From each model, we derive lexical surprisal, POS surprisal, entropy before the target, and entropy reduction. Lexical surprisal and the joint four-metric model consistently favor CantoneseLLM-7B, followed by Qwen2.5-7B, CKIP, and JED351, whereas entropy reduction favors CKIP. These results suggest that more extensive Cantonese-specific training can be associated with stronger predictive fit, while model rankings also depend on the information-theoretic measure being evaluated.

Stochastic Estimation of Transduced Language Models

Transduced language models (TLMs) compose a pretrained \emph{source} language model with a functional finite-state transducer to induce a language model over \emph{target} strings. Computing the probability of a target prefix under a TLM amounts to summing the source-model probabilities of all source strings that the transducer maps to target strings beginning with that prefix. This set can be exponentially large or infinite. Prior work uses a computational shortcut based on source prefix probabilities, then approximates the resulting sum with threshold-pruned beam summing. This produces a lower bound with unknown error. Instead, we resample source prefixes without replacement and reweight each selected prefix by the inverse of its inclusion probability. We show that applying this correction recursively gives an unbiased estimator of the target prefix probability and lets us estimate the mass lost by threshold pruning. Our beam-summing algorithm extends the retained source prefixes and samples which prefixes to keep, reducing their number as more probability mass is added to the running estimate. This can save computation and guarantees that the run halts with probability one. We evaluate the method on encyclopedic text and DNA against sequential Monte Carlo baselines that resample with replacement. It achieves a better compute--variance tradeoff on text and lower error at the same maximum number of particles on DNA. On a DNA-to-amino-acid transduction, it reduces runtime by several orders of magnitude relative to threshold-pruned beam summing and makes estimating prefix probabilities for long target strings feasible. Replacing threshold pruning with unbiased sampling in a published reading-time analysis substantially lowers the estimated corpus surprisal but leaves the published conclusions unchanged.

Distinct dynamics of conceptual and referential disruptions in human reading and large language model processing

Linguistic meaning is grounded in conceptual content, from which reference to particular entities emerges as words enter discourse. To examine the processing dynamics associated with these two dimensions of meaning, we selectively disrupted conceptual or referential information in short narratives and traced the resulting effects in human self-paced reading and in the predictive and representational processing of large language models. In human reading, conceptual disruptions produced a strong but localized processing cost, emerging immediately after the distorted word, reaching an early maximum, and then declining rapidly. Referential disruptions produced weaker effects, which decreased more gradually across subsequent words, and were more strongly modulated by sentence boundaries. In the language model, both disruptions emerged immediately at the manipulated word. Contextual model surprisal showed a pattern closely paralleling human reading: conceptual disruption produced a larger, more locally concentrated effect that decayed rapidly, whereas referential disruption produced a smaller and more gradual downstream effect. Output-layer representations showed a different pattern: referential disruption produced a larger initial displacement, while both distortions were subsequently characterized by power-law decay. Together, these results provide convergent evidence for distinguishable processing dynamics of two types of meaning: conceptual information imposes a more locally concentrated integration cost, whereas referential information engages a more distributed process of maintaining discourse-level identity.

From Exposure to Expectation: Frequency, Surprisal, and Language Across Development in Spanish

Surprisal, the negative log-probability a language model assigns to a word given its preceding context, reliably predicts adult reading times. Does it contribute as much to explaining when children acquire individual words? Frequency reflects a learner's cumulative exposure to a word, whereas surprisal reflects how predictable a single occurrence is given its context. We investigate this question across two corpus-based studies of Spanish. In Study 1, we modeled age of acquisition (AoA) for 225 Spanish nouns using lexical frequency and contextual diversity from child-directed speech, plus surprisal from three language models differing in architecture and training language (BETO, BERTIN, mGPT). Frequency strongly predicted AoA (r=-.597, p<.001); surprisal added little beyond frequency and word length, including in a naturalistic-context analysis. In Study 2, we modeled adult fixation durations in the Chilean Spanish subsample of the Multilingual Eye-movement Corpus (MECO Wave 2), using mGPT surprisal alongside two independent frequency measures. Surprisal robustly predicted longer fixation durations after controlling for frequency and word length, consistent across both frequency sources. A matched word-type-level comparison showed the surprisal-behavior association was stronger in reading than in acquisition (z=3.63, p<.001). The findings suggest cumulative lexical exposure and contextual predictability play different roles across the language trajectory: frequency is particularly informative about when early lexical representations are acquired, whereas surprisal captures moment-to-moment processing difficulty in an already-established linguistic system. We discuss this pattern in relation to usage-based and entrenchment-based accounts of lexical development and to the evaluation of language models as models of human language behavior.

Human-Like Anaphor Resolution in Large Language Models

Anaphors are expressions that refer to other expressions, called antecedents. The process of connecting the two is called resolution. Cognitive science has identified multiple factors that affect the speed and success of anaphor resolution, including discourse structure, situation-model properties, and semantic factors. Here, we investigate whether these factors also affect anaphor resolution in five Large Language Models (LLMs) with open weights: GPT-2-XL, Llama-3.1-8B, Pythia-12B, Mistral-7B, and Mistral-24B. To model processing difficulty, we adopt the standard linking hypothesis that relates human reading times to model surprisal at the anaphor. As a second behavioral measure, we compare model accuracy to human accuracy on comprehension questions probing the antecedents of anaphors. The results show selective cognitive alignment: some LLMs exhibit human-like sensitivity to discourse prominence and distance-based factors in anaphor resolution, while showing weaker or absent sensitivity to semantic interference effects. These findings delimit the conditions under which LLMs approximate human anaphor resolution.

Encoding EEG Signals to Examine Human-Like Next-Word Prediction Behaviour in Language Models

Language models (LMs) are trained to excel at predicting the next word in the sequence given prior context, and humans also share this predictability in reading comprehension. Neuroscience research reveals that next-word predictability influences brain response, as recorded at millisecond resolution using electroencephalography (EEG). While our evidence indicates that advanced LMs achieve accuracies closely aligned with human performance at the next-word prediction task, this raises the question: Does higher prediction accuracy necessarily mean that these models adequately capture the cognitive signals associated with human reading comprehension? Here, we generate regressors for both humans and LMs based on two information measures, including top-1 prediction and surprisal, to predict event-related potential (ERP) elicited from EEG recordings which reflect different stages of cognitive processing during reading. We argue that modelling ERP patterns offers fine-grained analysis of the cognitive plausibility of various LMs during reading. Our results indicate that only surprisal potentially correlates with language-processing ERPs, especially for open-class words with high semantic content. Moreover, our findings challenge the assumption that scaling LMs with increased parameters and computational budgets will consistently lead to improved convergence with human-like linguistic processing.

LEXIC: Lightweight Eye-tracking eXtension via Injected Complexity

On the recent EyeBench benchmark, predicting reading comprehension from eye movements exposes a stark gap: text-aware models using pretrained language models reach 56--63% AUROC, while gaze-only models operate at chance. We ask how far a gaze-only model can be pushed by lightweight, language-model-free conditioning. Building on the EyeBench AhnCNN baseline, LEXIC-Base, we propose two mechanisms to inject three precomputed word-level difficulty signals, GPT-2 surprisal, word frequency, and word length, into the per-fixation input: direct concatenation, LEXIC-Concat, and a residual mechanism, LEXIC-Res, where a small head predicts typical-reader gaze response and the encoder is conditioned on the deviation. On the OneStop reading comprehension task, with K=5 seed-ensemble training across ten folds, both mechanisms produce statistically consistent AUROC gains on Unseen Text, +1.8 to +2.2 percentage points, Wilcoxon p <= 0.065. LEXIC-Concat additionally lifts Unseen Reader by +2.9 percentage points, p = 0.010. We trace an architectural boundary in LEXIC-Res on Unseen Reader, +1.8 percentage points, p = 0.19, to the prediction head being calibrated to training readers, transferring imperfectly to out-of-distribution readers.

Contextual Semantic Relevance and Word Surprisal Predict N400 and P600 Dynamics During Naturalistic Reading

Word surprisal is a well-established computational predictor of human neural responses during language comprehension, but it remains less clear whether local semantic fit explains neural response variation beyond lexical expectation during naturalistic reading. Using the Dublin EEG-based Reading Experiment Corpus (DERCo), this study examined whether contextual semantic relevance predicts word-locked EEG activity in the N400 and P600 windows. Contextual semantic relevance was computed as an attention-aware measure of how strongly a target word is semantically connected to its recent discourse context, and it was compared with GPT-based word surprisal. Across 22 participants and 32 EEG channels, we tested both predictors using regression-based ERP analyses and generalized additive mixed models while controlling for lexical variables and repeated observations. Both predictors were reliably associated with EEG responses, but they showed partly different temporal and scalp-level patterns. Surprisal captured expectancy-related variation, whereas contextual semantic relevance showed robust effects across N400- and P600-window mean voltages, with particularly strong explanatory support in the P600 window. Model comparisons indicated that contextual semantic relevance contributed explanatory value beyond lexical controls and surprisal. These findings suggest that naturalistic reading depends on both lexical expectation and local semantic integration, and that contextual semantic relevance offers an interpretable computational link between discourse semantic fit and ERP dynamics.

Temporal Multi-Signal Fusion for Token-Level Hallucination Detection

Token-level hallucination detectors score each token independently from a single signal, and fail exactly when the generating model is confidently wrong. This paper instead treats hallucination as a temporally extended span and detects it by sequence labeling: each token is scored from a 33-dimensional feature stream that fuses text statistics, Natural Language Inference (NLI) entailment, and language model surprisal, with no access to model internals. A Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) over these features reaches an AUC of 0.840 on RAGTruth (10 seeds), an 11-point gain over an independent logistic-regression baseline (p = 0.002, Wilcoxon signed-rank). A controlled decomposition attributes most of the gain to temporal order rather than model capacity: evidence propagates from confident positions to ambiguous neighbors within a span. The same 0.845 ceiling recurs across recurrent, state-space (Mamba), and attention architectures, locating the bottleneck in the feature set rather than the model. Because it reads only the generated text and external signals, the detector works on closed-source models, and it keeps working on text produced by language models it never saw during training, losing under 4% AUC.

How Surprising Is Historical Italian to Language Models? Tokenization Tax, Comprehension Tax, and a Simple Mitigation

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly critical to digital library workflows, yet their ability to process historical language remains poorly understood. Historical difficulty is typically treated as a monolithic barrier, conflating orthographic variation, linguistic distance, and pretraining exposure. In this paper, we propose a diagnostic framework that decomposes this difficulty into four distinct dimensions: tokenization cost, predictive uncertainty (surprisal), semantic robustness, and context sensitivity. We evaluate this framework on three datasets spanning three centuries: (1) a newly curated corpus of 17th-century Italian texts (1610-1689) digitized from original page images; (2) canonical 19th-century Italian "I Promessi Sposi" serving as a high-exposure control; and (3) 18th-century Russian civil print books as a contrastive orthographic stress test. Our results reveal a distinct dissociation between encoding cost and comprehension. While Russian and early modern Italian incur comparable tokenization penalties (25-30% inflation), their predictive difficulty diverges sharply. 17th-century Italian is on average 2.4 times more surprising than its modern equivalent - with academic prose reaching 3.2 times - whereas Russian shows only a modest increase. But predictive uncertainty does not imply representational degradation: embedding similarity remains robust (> 0.85) across all datasets, confirming that models can represent historical meaning even when generation is unstable. Finally, we demonstrate that a minimal temporal context prompt reduces historical surprisal by approximately 60%, offering a simple, model-agnostic mitigation. These findings suggest that while historical text imposes a consistent encoding tax, digital libraries can safely deploy LLMs for semantic retrieval tasks, provided that generative applications are carefully adapted.

Syntactic Belief Update as the Driver of Garden Path Processing Difficulty

Garden path sentences present a processing difficulty for humans -- the sentence prefix leads the listener towards one interpretation, until the listener hears a critical word that shows that the initial interpretation was wrong. Lexical surprisal, a measure that usually predicts sentence processing difficulty quite well, fails to provide good predictions for garden path sentences. We propose an alternative that actively predicts a probability distribution over syntactic trees (its syntactic belief) and updates that distribution after each new word. If a processor is led down a garden path, syntactic beliefs will be wrong and will require a large update at the critical word. The magnitude of the update is measured with a generalized Rényi divergence. Crucially, this metric is dependent on lexical items, but is fully independent of the probability of lexical items. This Syntactic Belief Update provides a better fit to the human reading time data on garden path sentences. This suggests a new research direction examining purely non-lexical alternatives to surprisal for psycholinguistics.

Energy-Based Transformers as Predictors of Reading Difficulty

Transformer language models have become established tools for modeling human sentence processing, with measures such as surprisal and attention entropy serving as effective predictors of reading difficulty that together capture complementary aspects of processing load. Here, we explore a related class of transformer models: energy-based transformers, which provide a principled formal link to associative memory models, bringing processing research into direct contact with the broader literature on Hopfield networks and dense associative memory. To our knowledge, this is the first exploration of an energy-based transformer measure in computational psycholinguistics. Across reading-time corpora (Natural Stories, UCL eye-tracking, UCL self-paced reading), the energy measure is a robust predictor of reading times, providing significant fit beyond surprisal in all three. In a controlled experiment on relative clause processing, energy at a single layer captures the well-known object/subject asymmetry. We find evidence that it subsumes effects attributable to both attention entropy and surprisal, suggesting that energy may serve as a single unified predictor where multiple complementary measures have previously been required.

When Context Misleads: Surprisal, Energy and Attention Entropy as Metrics of Coherence Illusions in LLMs

Psycholinguistics studies show that human readers fall for coherence illusions: an incoherent discourse can seem coherent simply because a distractor matches what comes next. We investigate whether Dutch language models (6 monolingual and 4 multilingual) show the same behavior on texts that link back to earlier context with words such as 'again' and 'too'. First, we find that surprisal at the critical word tracks human acceptability judgments and eye-tracking data. Models are more surprised by incoherent continuations, but a matching distractor in the prior context reduces this surprisal. Second, attention entropy at the critical position identifies heads that behave differently under coherence vs. incoherence. We find that ablating these heads shows transfer effects across experiments, suggesting a shared mechanism. Third, we introduce energy from the associative-memory literature as a metric to quantify discourse coherence. Taken together, our results show that coherence illusions arise in Dutch LLMs, with entropy and energy exposing mechanisms that operate across settings.

Light-weight Pronunciation Assessment via Discrete Speech Token Surprisal

Training automated pronunciation assessment often relies on labeled learner errors or non-native corpora that are costly to collect. We propose a lightweight framework trained only on native speech resources, operating unsupervised or lightly calibrated with a small set of scored utterances. At inference, learner speech is discretized with an SSL encoder and a K-means codebook. A token language model trained on native sequences computes surprisal where higher surprisal indicates phonotactic deviation. We add a transcript-guided Text2DUnit--DTW module that predicts native token sequences from reference text and aligns them to acoustic tokens to derive error-sensitive features. Surprisal and alignment features are fused via simple regression. On SpeechOcean762, PCC improves from 0.60 to 0.66 with transcript guidance, near supervised baselines. Cross-dataset evaluation on L2-ARCTIC shows consistent gains.

Trajectory Dynamics in Language Model Hidden States Predict Human Processing Costs Beyond Surprisal

Human language comprehension unfolds sequentially: each word is processed in the context of those that came before, and the interpretation builds incrementally over time. Surprisal, the negative log probability of a word given its context, has been the dominant predictor of incremental processing cost. But surprisal reduces rich sequential representations to a single scalar at each word, discarding information about the direction in which the interpretation has been evolving. Dynamical-systems approaches suggest that the trajectory of the evolving interpretive state, not just its position at each moment,should shape processing, and language itself may have local momentum, since speakers plan utterances a few words at a time. We introduce trajectory extrapolation error: at each word, we fit a linear trajectory to the preceding hidden states of a transformer language model and measure deviation from the extrapolated path. On the Natural Stories corpus, this measure is nearly orthogonal to surprisal (r = .044) and independently predicts self-paced reading times. The effect is especially pronounced in garden-path sentences, strengthens with model scale (GPT-2 Small to Large), and replicates across architectures with different positional encoding schemes (GPT-2 vs. Pythia/RoPE). A displacement control shows the effect is not reducible to representational change magnitude: displacement and extrapolation error predict in opposite directions. These findings reveal two dissociable components of processing cost: word-level prediction error (surprisal) and sensitivity to the local momentum of the unfolding interpretation (trajectory extrapolation error).

Quantifying the cross-linguistic effects of syncretism on agreement attraction

Agreement attraction errors, in which a verb erroneously agrees with an intervening noun rather than its grammatical head, are amplified by morphological syncretism in some languages (English, German, Russian) but not others (Turkish, Armenian), a cross-linguistic pattern without a principled account. We use surprisal and attention entropy from large language models as processing proxies to investigate this variation across four languages. LLM-derived measures replicate behavioral findings in English and German (syncretism modulates attraction), align with Turkish null results (no modulation), and partially capture Russian patterns. We discuss further directions for better understanding why syncretism affects agreement attraction differently across languages.

On the Proper Treatment of Units in Surprisal Theory

Surprisal theory links human processing effort to the predictability of an upcoming linguistic unit, but empirical work often leaves the notion of a unit underspecified. In practice, experimental stimuli are segmented into linguistically motivated units (e.g., words), while pretrained language models assign probability mass to a fixed token alphabet that typically does not align with those units. As a result, surprisal-based predictors depend implicitly on ad hoc procedures that conflate two distinct modeling choices: the definition of the unit of analysis and the choice of regions of interest over which predictions are evaluated. In this paper, we disentangle these choices and give a unified framework for reasoning about surprisal over arbitrary unit inventories. We argue that surprisal-based analyses should make these choices explicit and treat tokenization as an implementation detail rather than a scientific primitive.