Reliability in LLM-based agentic systems is a property of the whole execution (its tool calls, model calls, guardrails, and inter-agent messages), not of the final answer alone, yet evaluating only task outcomes reveals little about how or why a run fails. We present AGENTCHAOSBENCH, a benchmark for detecting and localizing runtime faults in agentic systems from their execution telemetry. We run five heterogeneous applications that coordinate agents over the Agent-to-Agent protocol and call tools through the Model Context Protocol, and inject ten types of operational fault (unavailable or slow tools, corrupted or oversized responses, and delayed, looped, or misrouted delegations and bypassed guardrails) at their tool, model, guardrail, and inter-agent boundaries, alongside a no-fault control. The resulting dataset contains 275 sanitized traces: 250 faulty executions spanning ten fault types and 25 no-fault controls. Each faulty trace is aligned with the no-fault execution of the same input; fault-type labels and, where applicable, location labels are held out from diagnosis. On structured single-trace inputs, a first set of zero-shot LLM baselines shows the task is far from solved: local detectors up to 14B parameters reach only 13.6-19.2% top-1 fault-type accuracy and the frontier DeepSeek-v4-pro only 24.8%, while jointly identifying the fault type and its location tops out at 22%; reference-dependent faults (above all a bypassed guardrail) stay near-unsolved from a single trace. An aligned reference improves selected relative faults but does not resolve guardrail bypass. The held-out labels and compact prediction format support reproducible comparison of LLM-based and non-LLM diagnosis methods.
Predicting student performance and characterizing metacognitive calibration are essential for personalization in intelligent tutoring systems. Prior research treats performance prediction, calibration error calculation, and variance decomposition as separate pipelines, preventing unified interpretation. I propose the Unified Behavioral Prediction and Calibration Analysis Pipeline (UBP-CAP), an integrated framework processing student pre-execution behavioral telemetry through three linked modules: (1) a LightGBM classifier with SHAP for binary correctness prediction, (2) formal calibration metrics (ECE, MCE, and Brier score decomposition) to evaluate metacognitive alignment, and (3) a crossed Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Model (GLMM) for decomposing calibration deviations. I introduce the Predictive-Explanatory Divergence Index (PEDI), which quantifies structural divergence between predictive and explanatory feature profiles. Evaluated on 1,195 interaction records (27 students, 45 tasks), Logistic Regression achieves AUC-ROC = 0.903, outperforming LightGBM (0.878). Student naive ECE (0.109) significantly exceeds model ECE (0.068), confirming systematic miscalibration. The crossed GLMM yields ICCStudent = 0.123, showing calibration is situational rather than dispositional. PEDIcos = 0.081 (p = 0.327) indicates structural alignment between prediction and explanation on shared behavioral features.
Next-generation wireless networks are expected to rely on multiple concurrent AI-driven control functions that optimize different network objectives simultaneously, particularly in AI-integrated and open radio access network architectures such as AI Radio Access Network (AI-RAN) and Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN). When these functions interact, they can interfere with one another in ways that are difficult to detect from raw network data alone. A key missing piece for managing such interactions is a reliable, interpretable dependency structure that captures which control parameters are actively influencing which network performance outcomes at any given time. This paper focuses on the event-detection step needed to support such dependency learning by converting noisy continuous telemetry into binary indicators of parameter activity and KPI response. The central difficulty is that not every fluctuation in the data reflects a genuine control interaction, so the method must distinguish real parameter-outcome relationships from background variation. Because real AI-RAN traffic traces with known parameter-KPI ground truth are difficult to obtain, we introduce a synthetic closed-loop traffic generator with planted latent dependencies. We use this controlled telemetry to evaluate a machine-learning-based dependency recovery pipeline that formulates the conversion of continuous traces into binary event indicators as a significance-detection problem. Experimental evaluation shows that the proposed pipeline reliably recovers the latent dependency structure from noisy continuous traces when the signal is sufficiently separated from background variation, while highlighting threshold calibration as the key factor controlling event-detection quality. These results constitute a foundational step toward interpretable dependency learning for adaptive AI-RAN control systems.