Revisiting TD Target Aggregation under Uncertainty in Q-Learning

Deep Q-Networks (DQNs) learn value functions through bootstrapped temporal-difference updates, where future returns are approximated using a greedy maximization over next-state action values. While effective, this aggregation rule is inherently sensitive to estimation noise: when Q-values are uncertain, the maximization operator deterministically favors the largest estimate, regardless of its reliability, leading to amplified errors through bootstrapping. In this work, we propose the \textbf{S}uccessor Rollout \textbf{A}ggregation \textbf{D}eep \textbf{Q}-Network (SADQ), a simple modification to Q-learning that regularizes how the TD target is formed. SADQ uses one-step rollout predictions from a learned dynamics model to guide the comparison among candidate next-state actions, introducing additional structure into the aggregation step without altering the underlying learning framework. The resulting mixed Bellman update attenuates unreliable maxima while preserving the standard fixed point under diminishing model error. We provide theoretical analysis showing that SADQ reduces bootstrap-induced overestimation in a pointwise manner. Empirically, SADQ consistently improves training stability across classical control tasks, real-world vector-based environments, and Atari benchmarks when compared to strong DQN variants.

Online Policy Evaluation for MDPs with Dynamic UBSR Measures

Developing efficient function-approximation methods for policy evaluation is a fundamental challenge in risk-aware reinforcement learning. Existing approaches either focus on restrictive classes of risk measures or rely on access to a simulator, limiting their applicability in fully online settings. In this work, we propose computationally efficient online learning algorithms for policy evaluation in Markov decision processes (MDPs) with dynamic utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR) measures under linear function approximation. Specifically, we introduce the UBSR-TD algorithm, establish conditions under which it converges almost surely, and develop several variants designed to accelerate convergence. Our formulation shows that existing policy evaluation algorithms for risk-neutral MDPs can be readily adapted to dynamic UBSR settings by incorporating a loss function into the temporal-difference error. Numerical experiments support our theoretical findings, and an application to a perishable inventory management problem with shelf-life uncertainty demonstrates the practical effectiveness of the proposed methods.

On the Variance of Temporal Difference Learning and its Reduction Using Control Variates

We analyze the variance of temporal difference (TD) learning using the phased setting with tabular representation, and show that one of the mechanisms behind its ability to reduce variance is by effectively aggregating over a larger number of independent trajectories. Based on this insight, we demonstrate that (1) the variance of TD is asymptotically bounded from above by Monte Carlo (MC) estimators, and (2) shorter horizon updates incurs less variance for a fixed number of samples. Beyond TD, we show that Direct Advantage Estimation (DAE), a method for estimating the advantage function, can be seen as a type of regression-adjusted control variate, which achieves a tighter bound on the variance compared to TD in the large-sample limit. Finally, we numerically illustrate the behaviors of these estimators with carefully designed environments.

You Don't Need Strong Assumptions: Visual Representation Learning via Temporal Differences

Progress in AI has largely been driven by methods that assume less. As compute and data increase, approaches with weaker inductive biases generally outperform those with stronger assumptions. This is particularly characteristic of the field of Visual Representation Learning, where approaches have gone from being dominated by Supervised Learning, to Weakly Supervised Learning, to the now widespread success of Self-Supervised Learning without human labels. Yet, even modern Self-Supervised Learning approaches still depend on strong inductive biases such as augmentations, masking, or cropping. If this trend holds, even these remaining biases should become bottlenecks at scale -- and our experiments confirm this: the optimal strength of inductive biases decreases as data grows. This motivates the search for approaches that rely on fewer assumptions. To this end, we introduce Temporal Difference in Vision (TDV), a new paradigm for self-supervised learning from video that avoids existing inductive biases, relying instead on a causal assumption that the past causes the future. TDV functions by jointly training an image encoder and a motion encoder so that the current frame's representation plus the encoded motion equals the next frame's representation. Despite not leveraging any strong inductive biases, TDV matches state-of-the-art recipes on dense spatial tasks, laying the foundation for representation learning without strong assumptions.

Fast and Robust Convergence Rate for TD(0) with Linear Function Approximation, Universal Learning Steps and I.I.D. Samples

In this paper, we study the finite-time behavior of the TD(0) temporal-difference method with linear function approximation (LFA). We consider on-policy independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples, a constant learning step, and the Polyak-Juditsky averaging method. We establish a new convergence rate, for the Mean-Square Error (MSE) on the approximated function, that is (i) fast in the sense that it admits an optimal dependency in the number of iterations k (i.e., of order 1/k), (ii) robust to ill-conditioning: it only depends on an initial error and modelindependent constants and (iii) sharp up to a multiplicative constant lower than 11. In particular, it does not depend on the smallest eigenvalue of the uncentered covariance matrix of the linear parametrization, unlike all pre-existing O(1/k) rates in the TD(0) literature. We also introduce PCTD(0), a variant of TD(0), which benefits from better convergence properties under an additional assumption of strong mixing on the Markov Chain.

Extending Differential Temporal Difference Methods for Episodic Problems

Differential temporal difference (TD) methods are value-based reinforcement learning algorithms that have been proposed for infinite-horizon problems. They rely on reward centering, where each reward is centered by the average reward. This keeps the return bounded and removes a value function's state-independent offset. However, reward centering can alter the optimal policy in episodic problems, limiting its applicability. Motivated by recent works that emphasize the role of normalization in streaming deep reinforcement learning, we study reward centering in episodic problems and propose a generalization of differential TD. We prove that this generalization maintains the ordering of policies in the presence of termination, and thus extends differential TD to episodic problems. We show equivalence with a form of linear TD, thereby inheriting theoretical guarantees that have been shown for those algorithms. We then extend several streaming reinforcement learning algorithms to their differential counterparts. Across a range of base algorithms and environments, we empirically validate that reward centering can improve sample efficiency in episodic problems.