Multimodal temporal data are inherently irregular and uneven in information density, yet most models rely on uniform discretization, leading to inefficient representations. We propose \textbf{EvtGraph}, a unified framework that aligns computation with temporal salience under explicit budget constraints. EvtGraph reparameterizes sequences into event-level tokens via event-adaptive compression (EAMC), selects a compact subset with a node budget (NBC), and performs temporally constrained sparse graph reasoning (T2SG). This transforms dense sequences into structured computation over salient events, reducing complexity while preserving critical transitions. We show that this design provides a practical mechanism for allocating representational capacity under a fixed budget, yielding a consistent performance--efficiency trade-off, where a small budget is often sufficient in practice. Experiments on multimodal clinical (MIMIC-IV + CXR) and cross-domain benchmarks demonstrate that EvtGraph outperforms both Transformer-based and recurrent baselines while significantly improving efficiency. These results suggest that budget-constrained event-centric representation provides a general paradigm for learning from high-redundancy temporal data.
Institutional equity holdings disclosed in SEC Form 13F filings provide a rich temporal record of portfolio decisions by large investment managers. However, forecasting future allocations and modeling future demand remains challenging due to disclosure lags, reporting noise, and strong persistence in institutional behavior. We introduce the first benchmark for these tasks using temporal graph machine learning, framing holdings prediction as node affinity prediction -- i.e., forecasting portfolio weights -- on a discrete-time temporal bipartite graph of managers and securities extracted from preprocessed filings. On a sampled dataset comprising 99 managers and the S\&P 500 index (503 securities, 209,351 temporal edges across 48 quarters from 2013--2025), Node Affinity prediction model using Virtual State (NAVIS) achieves a state-of-the-art test Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG) of 0.9127 with features (0.9121 without), outperforming all dynamic graph representation learning competitors by a substantial margin, and outperforming all heuristic methods. Remarkably, a simple Exponential Moving Average baseline achieves 0.8882, surpassing all dynamic graph models except NAVIS and all heuristics except Persistent Forecast (0.8891), highlighting the strong smoothness and persistence of institutional portfolios. Domain-specific node features provide only marginal gains (<1.2\%), indicating that temporal and structural signals in the 13F ownership graph already capture most of the predictable information. By benchmarking a suite of Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB) models under the node affinity prediction setting, both with and without features, on real-world 13F data, this work provides a reproducible foundation for temporal graph machine learning in holdings prediction and portfolio allocation.
Understanding tactical organisation of association football, hereafter referred to as football, requires identifying distinct match phases. Yet in-possession phases are rarely directly observable and are shaped by evolving tactical intentions, rather than spatial patterns alone. This study proposes a data-driven framework for identifying in-possession match phases from spatiotemporal tracking data. Seven German Bundesliga matches recorded at 25 Hz with TRACAB were analysed. A hierarchical phase model was defined with three tactical intentions (Invade Opponent Space, Keep Possession, Scoring) and six phases (Build Up, Progression, Counter Attack, Maintenance, Sustained Threat, Finishing). A Temporal Graph Attention Network (T-GAN) was developed to combine frame-level player-interaction graphs, contextual features, and Transformer-based temporal modelling. Performance was evaluated using frame-level F1 and a sequence-aware Intersection over Truth-Dominance (IoT-D) metric. T-GAN achieved macro-average frame-level F1 scores of 0.87 at the intention level, 0.76 for invasion-related phases, and 0.79 for scoring phases. At the sequence level, mean diagonal IoT-D F1 increased from 0.68 to 0.79 for intentions and from 0.61 to 0.71 for phases after post-processing, indicating improved temporal coherence. Model comparisons showed that sequence modelling was the main driver of segmentation quality, while graph-based relational modelling was particularly beneficial for Counter Attack recognition. Exploratory player attention analysis further suggested that wide and midfield positional groups contributed strongly to phase discrimination. Overall, the framework translates continuous tracking data into tactically interpretable in-possession phase representations, with potential applications in automated match annotation, tactical analysis, and playing-style profiling.