Electricity price forecasting is crucial for market participants but remains difficult because prices are volatile, market-specific, and closely tied to anticipated system conditions. Existing supervised methods depend largely on market-specific historical data, limiting their use in newly established or data-scarce markets. This paper proposes a market-information-aware adaptation framework that transfers the Chronos-2 time-series foundation model to day-ahead electricity price forecasting. It first constructs a multi-source market information (MSMI) interface aligning 7-day price context with pre-clearing supply--demand, reserve, maintenance, generator-capacity, and intertie variables, and then trains a source-domain gated low-rank adapter (LoRA), updating about $1\%$ of model parameters without target-market labels. The gate scales the frozen source adapter according to reserve-tightness and operating-state signals. A leave-one-market-out protocol is adopted for evaluating cross-market transferability. Experiments on four Chinese provincial day-ahead spot markets show that the proposed framework reduces the average MAE/RMSE by $6.24\%/7.99\%$ relative to market-information-aware zero-shot Chronos-2 and by $3.05\%/3.52\%$ relative to vanilla Source-LoRA. Experiments show that the gain is not reproduced by a learned global scalar or by random gate initialization, while the additional improvement over Source-LoRA is limited. These results suggest that market-structured inputs and state-dependent gated LoRA can provide a practical transfer path for data-scarce electricity markets.
We present a three-phase deep reinforcement learning system for personalized portfolio management that addresses three limitations shared by all prior financial RL work: 1) ticker lock-in, 2) monolithic objectives , and 3) static user models. Phase 1 pretrains a ticker-identity-free cross asset encoder via self-supervised learning on a multi-asset corpus, augmented by a frozen parallel branch using Chronos, a T5-based time series foundation model, fused via a learned gating mechanism. To our knowledge, this is the first application of a time series foundation model to portfolio management RL. The encoder generalizes to any publicly traded asset via a 50-dimensional observable metadata vector that requires no retraining for new tickers. Phase 2 fine-tunes a MoE (Mixture of Experts) portfolio actor critic with PPO under an objective-conditioned reward that simultaneously serves six distinct investment goals sampled per episode: short-term alpha, short-term gain, long-term gain, capital preservation, tax-loss harvesting, and long-term-gains-only. A MoE architecture assigns each objective to a specialized expert head (momentum, growth, defensive, tax-aware), and a learned intent router blends experts based on the active objective and current market regime, which eliminates cross-objective gradient conflict. Phase 3 adds a lightweight personalization layer further adapted at inference time to each individual via a 76-parameter LoRA module fine-tuned on real brokerage transaction history, inferring investment objectives from revealed trading behavior rather than questionnaires. A natural language intent parser converts free-form goals directly into structured investment objective parameters.
Sribalaji C. Anand, Anh Tung Nguyen, George J. Pappaseess.SY cs.LG
This paper addresses the problem of attack detection in cyber-physical systems without any knowledge of the plant model or its structure. A remotely located plant transmits sensor measurements to an operator over a network that is assumed to be under attack. We consider two classes of attacks: model-free replay attacks and model-based stealthy attacks. For the latter, we derive closed-form expressions for the optimal stealthy attack policy against a $χ^2$ detector, for both linear and nonlinear systems. We then propose a model-structure-free detector based on TimesFM, a time-series foundation model developed by Google Research, which serves as a surrogate residual generator operating in a zero-shot fashion. We show empirically that the TimesFM-based detector achieves a comparable or superior attack detection performance. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated numerically on the IEEE 14-bus power system. We also demonstrate that TimesFM predictions can serve as a substitute for corrupted measurements, a practical mitigation technique when classical redundancy assumptions fail.