How Do LLM Agents Actually Get the Flag? Trace-Level Provenance for Agentic Offensive Security Evaluation

Capture-the-Flag (CTF) benchmarks are widely used to assess the offensive security capabilities of autonomous language-model agents. Evaluations rely on shallow binary judgments or aggregate scores, overlooking the agent's trajectory to the flag. Consequently actual exploitation is conflated with direct flag exposure, memorized recall, external lookup, guessing, and unsupported claims, potentially overstating the agent's cybersecurity capability. We introduce CTF-ABACUS, a trace-based agent auditing framework that reconstructs each run as an evidence-grounded solve profile. By decomposing agent actions into penetration-testing phases and categorical techniques, it identifies where exploitation occurs, where the flag first appears, and whether the recovered flag is supported by demonstrated behavior. Aggregating solve profiles across agents yields challenge signatures that reveal whether success was achieved via the intended exploit or via shortcut pathways. We apply CTF-ABACUS to 1,435 CTF attempts by six frontier and open-source models on 240 challenges, yielding 2,870 solve profiles under two judge lenses. Trace-verified exploits account for only 62-87% of recovered flags across benchmarks, while shortcut recoveries follow substantially shallower trajectories. These findings shift CTF evaluation from counting recovered flags to verifying demonstrated exploitation and provide a basis for designing benchmarks that better isolate the offensive capabilities.

Adaptive Influence Graphs for Failure Attribution in Multi-Agent Systems

Multi-agent LLM systems are increasingly deployed in real-world applications, where failures can be costly and difficult to localize. Despite growing efforts to automate failure attribution, diagnosing failed runs still largely relies on human engineers. Yet engineers rarely debug complex systems by reading raw logs end to end. Instead, observability tools organize traces around components, actions, and dependencies to support targeted navigation. We hypothesize that modern LLMs can benefit from the same paradigm. To test this hypothesis, we introduce Adaptive Influence Graphs (AIGs), a two-stage agentic framework that first transforms a failed trace into a structured graph and then navigates it to identify the critical error. Across multiple models, we show that richer trace representations consistently improve failure attribution, with adaptive graph construction and agent-directed traversal yielding the strongest results. AIGs establish a new state of the art on Who&When, the standard benchmark for multi-agent failure attribution. This affirms our hypothesis that attribution depends not only on the diagnosing model, but also on how the trace is represented and explored.

RL Post-Training Builds Compositional Reasoning Strategies

Does RL post-training merely amplify primitive skills already latent in a base model, or can it compose primitive skills into new higher-level strategies? We study this question in a fully observable rewrite-grammar environment where the pretraining distribution is known and every generated rewrite can be audited. A Transformer is pretrained on primitive symbol-rewrite chains and post-trained on a Trace-based reasoning task with only a binary final-answer reward. RL solves held-out problems that remain rarely solved by the pretrained model even under much larger sampling budgets, while rejection fine-tuning improves early but plateaus. Trace analysis shows that RL reorganizes primitive competence through a phased compositional mechanism: it first strengthens primitive reductions, then discovers valid composed procedures. These include sequential compositions, which collapse ordered chains of primitive contractions, and parallel compositions, which combine independent primitive contractions in a single step. The composed procedures are not isolated samples; they are reused and consolidated into a stable repertoire. Comparing RL with rejection fine-tuning shows that the key difference is not exploration volume but selectivity: RFT produces many shortcut-like rewrites, much of them invalid, whereas RL concentrates exploration into valid reusable structure. Pretraining ablations show that the emergence of compositional strategies is gated not by primitive exposure alone, but by whether pretraining organizes primitive competence into reduction procedures that RL can later compress. The base model provides weak procedural ingredients; RL builds them into reliable higher-level strategies.

TraceLab: Characterizing Coding Agent Workloads for LLM Serving

Coding agents are rapidly becoming a major application of agentic LLMs, but serving them efficiently remains challenging. Progress on this challenge requires understanding real workload patterns, yet the data needed for such analysis is largely absent. Existing public traces and benchmarks do not capture real, day-to-day coding-agent usage across multiple agents and model families for serving-system analysis. To help fill this gap, we collect and release a trace of roughly 4,300 coding-agent sessions, containing about 350,000 LLM steps and 430,000 tool calls from our own day-to-day use of Claude Code and Codex. Our analysis shows that coding-agent workloads feature long autonomous loops, long contexts with short outputs, diverse and heavily-tailed tool calls, and high but imperfect prefix cache hit rates. These findings point to concrete opportunities for optimizing serving, including lower-overhead tool calling, append-length-aware prefill, semantic-aware tool-latency prediction, and improved KV-cache management around human-paced gaps. We release the dataset, trace collection pipeline, and analysis code at https://github.com/uw-syfi/TraceLab.git; the project website is https://tracelab.cs.washington.edu.

Knowledge-Based Zero-Replay Debugging of Multi-Agent LLM Traces

Reliable operation of multi-agent large language model (LLM) systems depends on debugging long execution traces, where the few causally decisive events are buried in unstructured logs of messages, routes, memory writes, and tool calls. The standard tool is counterfactual replay (rewind, edit, and re-run the trajectory to measure each event's effect), but its cost grows linearly with the number of candidate events, making exhaustive replay infeasible at scale. We frame trace debugging as a knowledge-based decision-support problem. Each trace is compiled into a structured event knowledge graph over routing, memory, tool-use, uncertainty, and latent evidence, and a calibrated predictor decides where a scarce replay budget should be spent. We do not propose a new replay oracle; we propose a method to predict its results without paying the replay cost. We formulate zero-replay counterfactual-effect prediction: given a trace under a fixed budget, predict which events the oracle would mark high-effect before any replay is performed. BranchPoint-Latent is a lightweight predictor over observable, structural, uncertainty, and latent features of the knowledge graph. Calibrated against a deterministic replay oracle across 37 trace families, a single learning-to-rank gradient-boosted predictor raises per-trace localization (Branch Recall@5) from 0.73 to 0.93 on held-out families at zero oracle-replay cost. Rather than claiming universal dominance, we characterize when cheap graph centrality suffices and when learned evidence is necessary. The result is an auditable, cost-efficient decision-support system for AI-reliability debugging, positioned explicitly on the cost-accuracy frontier with reproducible artifacts.

REFLECT: Intervention-Supported Error Attribution for Silent Failures in LLM Agent Traces

Large language model (LLM) agents now solve complex tasks through long plan-and-execution traces, yet the ability to locate errors in a completed traces still lags far behind, especially in the \emph{silent failure} regime. Existing approaches predict suspect steps via classifiers or LLM judges, or recover correct answers via retry, but none feed the intervention outcome back to \emph{refine the attribution itself}. We propose \methodname, a method that closes this gap by diagnosing a candidate error step, testing it through controlled replay with a diagnosis-specific patch, and using the verified outcome flip as contrastive evidence to refine the final attribution. Across four localization benchmarks spanning multi-hop reasoning across domains, \methodname achieves the highest localization accuracy among same-auditor methods across all four benchmarks, with the largest gains on structured tool-use traces, while providing actionable localization even when ground-truth answers are unavailable.

Extreme Low-Bit Inference in Reasoning Models: Failure Modes and Targeted Recovery

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) rely on long reasoning traces, making inference expensive. While low-bit quantization reduces per-token decoding cost, we show that aggressive 2-bit inference can fail to deliver end-to-end speedup because instability in the generation process inflates total token count. Instead of merely lowering answer accuracy, 2-bit quantization often produces much longer traces with repetitive loops, budget exhaustion, delayed commitment, and unclosed reasoning segments. We analyze full reasoning traces of Qwen3 reasoning models across mathematical and commonsense benchmarks and show that accuracy degradation is tightly linked to these process-level failures. To address them, we introduce two lightweight controls: FP16 planning, which gives the 2-bit model a short high-precision outline, and loop rescue, which detects repetitive traces and either commits to an earlier answer or falls back to FP16. On MATH-500, loop rescue improves Qwen3-8B accuracy from 17.2% to 74.2%, while planning plus loop rescue improves Qwen3-32B from 65.0% to 87.2%. Overall, our results show that extreme low-bit reasoning becomes practical when its failures are treated as controllable generation pathologies: with lightweight detection and selective FP16 support, 2-bit inference can recover accuracy while preserving real end-to-end speed. Our code is available at: https://github.com/brain-lab-research/quantized-reasoning.

Trace-Level Analysis of Information Contamination in Multi-Agent Systems

Reasoning over heterogeneous artifacts (PDFs, spreadsheets, slide decks, etc.) increasingly occurs within structured agent workflows that iteratively extract, transform, and reference external information. In these workflows, uncertainty is not merely an input-quality issue: it can redirect decomposition and routing decisions, reshape intermediate state, and produce qualitatively different execution trajectories. We study this phenomenon by treating uncertainty as a controlled variable: we inject structured perturbations into artifact-derived representations, execute fixed workflows under comprehensive logging, and quantify contamination via trace divergence in plans, tool invocations, and intermediate state. Across 614 paired runs on 32 GAIA tasks with three different language models, we find a decoupling: workflows may diverge substantially yet recover correct answers, or remain structurally similar while producing incorrect outputs. We characterize three manifestation types: silent semantic corruption, behavioral detours with recovery, and combined structural disruption and their control-flow signatures (rerouting, extended execution, early termination). We measure operational costs and characterize why commonly used verification guardrails fail to intercept contamination. We contribute (i) a formal taxonomy of contamination manifestations in structured workflows, (ii) a trace-based measurement framework for detecting and localizing contamination across agent interactions, and (iii) empirical evidence with implications for targeted verification, defensive design, and cost control.