Target-centered gaze interaction requires more than suppressing frame-to-frame fluctuations: target acquisition produces task-aligned changes in gaze-head dynamics, while a gaze trace may retain a persistent target-relative residual direction. We formulate gaze correction as online target-centered gaze-trajectory forecasting and stabilization and introduce GazeFS, which maps a variable-length gaze-head history to the next target-center direction and a short-horizon Search/Focus estimate without target information at inference. Across 7,960 acquisition episodes from 30 participants, Search-Focus differences remain stable under quality control, onset exclusion, and duration matching. History windows improve phase decoding over the current endpoint, but explicit task progress remains a strong control. Under the 30-participant, five-fold grouped out-of-fold protocol across three seeds, the reductions relative to raw hold in Focus episode bias, within-episode dispersion, and P90 target error are 0.182 degrees, 0.257 degrees, and 0.400 degrees, with participant-bootstrap 95% confidence intervals excluding zero. Endpoint-free replay from empty history preserves the Focus advantage and yields raw-network phase balanced accuracy/AUPRC of 0.925/0.993; coordinate controls further show that recent history contributes beyond explicit progress metadata. GazeFS therefore improves Focus target centering and empirical residual contraction while leaving temporal smoothness as a separate objective.
Stephane Da Silva Martins, Victor Petrovic, Emanuel Aldea +1cs.CV
Most trajectory forecasting models are trained on clean annotated histories, and are often evaluated under the same idealized assumption, although practical deployments rely on trajectories produced by imperfect multi-object trackers. The real-world observations exhibit localization jitter, missed or unstable detections, and data-association ambiguity, which are usually either ignored or removed through denoising. This paper instead treats tracking-derived reliability cues as an informative signal to be propagated to the predictor. We propose a plug-in uncertainty-aware formulation in which each observed state is encoded as an uncertain state representation, modeled by a Gaussian distribution whose covariance combines detection-level localization uncertainty and association-level ambiguity through the law of total variance. Existing backbones are adapted with minimal architectural changes: input trajectories are represented as Gaussian observations, and predicted trajectories are produced as Gaussian forecasts rather than deterministic coordinates. To train predictors that remain robust under structured observation noise, we combine temporally correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck perturbations with response-based knowledge distillation from a teacher trained on clean trajectories. Experiments on Oxford Town Centre and VIRAT using real tracker outputs, together with a complementary ETH/UCY pseudo-detection protocol, show that the proposed formulation improves displacement accuracy and the reliability-sharpness trade-off of probabilistic forecasts.
Weiliang Huang, Huanrong Liu, Bob Zhang +5cs.CV cs.RO
Reliable surgical planning requires models to anticipate not only how instruments will move, but also how the operative visual state will evolve together with such motion. Existing approaches typically treat future scene generation and instrument trajectory prediction as two separate tasks. Scene-only models cannot directly evaluate the accuracy of future instrument motion at the trajectory level, while trajectory-only models fail to capture the visual consequences of instrument movement, leaving the consistency between predicted trajectories and future scene evolution unaddressed. Jointly forecasting both provides a more complete account of surgical action-scene dynamics by enabling explicit trajectory-level evaluation while simultaneously modeling the corresponding visual evolution. To bridge this gap, we present a preliminary joint visual-trajectory world-action model that simultaneously forecasts future visual states and instrument trajectories from historical surgical observations. Specifically, we encode historical video frames and tool trajectories into latent representations, which are processed by a temporal-spatial encoder and subsequently decoded through separate visual-state and trajectory prediction heads. Based on this preliminary architecture, a chunked autoregressive rollout is repeatedly applied to predict fifteen future steps. The chunked strategy consistently outperforms direct one-shot prediction across all evaluated horizons, improving first-segment PSNR from 18.86 to 23.11 dB and reducing ADE from 45.77 to 22.22 pixels. These results demonstrate the initial feasibility of joint visual-motion forecasting. However, we observe progressive visual degradation and accumulated trajectory errors over longer prediction horizons, which remain important challenges for future surgical world-action modeling.
Understanding object dynamics requires not only predicting future trajectories but also examining whether a model captures the physical properties that govern motion. However, existing benchmarks rarely expose object-level physical properties as explicit evaluation targets alongside trajectory forecasting. To address this gap, we introduce \emph{ExPhy}, a multi-object trajectory forecasting benchmark containing 24,000 simulated physical scenes with explicit object-level labels for mass, friction, and restitution. ExPhy provides observed and future trajectories together with an in-distribution (ID) split and two out-of-distribution (OOD) splits over physical parameters (OOD-Parameter) and initial states (OOD-Initial) for jointly evaluating trajectory forecasting and physical property estimation. We further instantiate \textsc{PhyODE}, a physics-guided model with an explicit property interface that estimates physical properties from observed trajectories and uses them for differentiable future rollout. On the long-horizon OOD-Initial setting, \textsc{PhyODE} reduces ADE and FDE by 33.1\% and 31.0\%, respectively, compared with the strongest baseline. Zero-shot evaluation on ComPhy further assesses cross-benchmark transfer. Property-level analyses reveal that accurate trajectory forecasting does not necessarily imply accurate recovery of the underlying physical properties. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Zest86/ExPhy.
Autonomous driving systems must operate under partial observability, where safety-critical objects may be occluded or visible only to neighboring connected vehicles. Vehicle-to-vehicle cooperation can reduce this uncertainty, but existing cooperative driving methods often compress multi-agent evidence into latent features or hidden multimodal states. As a result, they obscure which agent observed each object, whether the object is visible to the ego vehicle, and how conflicting evidence affects downstream decisions. We propose G-MARK, a grounded multi-agent reasoning framework that converts cooperative object-centric observations into explicit provenance-aware knowledge graphs (KGs). The resulting KGs preserve object hypotheses together with their source attribution, ego-versus-partner visibility, uncertainty, conflicts, spatial relations, and planning-relevant context. G-MARK then derives a shared feature representation from these KGs, enabling lightweight task heads to support object reasoning, motion prediction, control selection, and trajectory forecasting. Compared with the state-of-the-art baseline, GMARK improves occlusion reasoning accuracy by 42.2%, reduces control-selection error by 13.1%, and achieves comparable trajectory-planning accuracy with a 25.6x smaller structured communication payload. Our code is available at https://github.com/bhavyagupta98/g-mark.
Om Roy, Yashar Moshfeghi, Keith Malcolm Smithcs.LG
Many complex systems such as brain networks, financial markets, and gene-regulatory circuits are described not by a fixed graph but by one that changes over time. A standard way to summarise such structure at each instant is the sparse precision (inverse-covariance) matrix, and the time-varying graphical lasso (TVGL) turns a multivariate signal into a smooth chain of these matrices. We introduce TVGL-CFM, a single model that learns the distribution of such chains and can both generate new, realistic time-varying network trajectories for a given class and forecast how an observed trajectory will continue. Each precision matrix lives on a curved space of positive-definite matrices, but a log-Euclidean chart flattens an entire trajectory into an ordinary vector space, so a simple conditional flow-matching model can be trained and sampled there while every decoded matrix is guaranteed to be a valid precision matrix. For forecasting we start the flow not from noise but from a rough extrapolation of the recent history, so the model only has to learn a small correction. Across EEG motor-imagery, chaotic systems, and gene-expression data, TVGL-CFM generates trajectories that keep the class-discriminative structure of real data, and it forecasts future connectivity more accurately than raw-signal baselines. Generating the structured precision trajectory directly is therefore more faithful than generating raw signals and estimating connectivity afterwards.
Markus Knoche, Daan de Geus, Bastian Leibecs.CV cs.RO
Accurate trajectory forecasting of surrounding traffic participants is a core capability for autonomous driving, enabling vehicles to anticipate behavior and plan safe maneuvers. We observe that current state-of-the-art forecasting models on Argoverse 2 and the Waymo Open Motion Dataset tailor their training objectives to the different benchmark metrics. Because these metrics encourage conflicting behavior, we propose a paradigm change for trajectory forecasting: training models with metric-agnostic probabilistic objectives and treating metric optimization as a downstream task applied to the predictive distribution. Concretely, we introduce Trajectory Distribution Evaluation (TraDiE) policies, metric-specific policies that map a predictive distribution to the set of $K$ trajectories and confidences required by trajectory forecasting metrics. We evaluate this framework by introducing DONUT-NLL, which adapts the training objective of the state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting model DONUT to directly optimize the predictive distribution. Using our policies, DONUT-NLL achieves state-of-the-art results on all metrics of the Waymo motion prediction benchmark.
Qiyuan Wu, Katie Z Luo, Bharath Hariharan +2cs.LG cs.CV cs.RO
Trajectory forecasting for autonomous driving has advanced rapidly, yet representative models often produce uninformative posteriors over forecast modes, causing problems for mode pruning. We trace this to a modeling-training mismatch: forecasters are typically modeled as conditional Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) but trained with a winner-take-all (WTA) loss that assigns each sample to its nearest mode. We argue that this K-means-like hard assignment (one-hot), while preventing mode collapse, is the source of uninformative mode probabilities: it over-segments the trajectory space, ignores relatedness among nearby modes, and yields assignment instability under small perturbations. Guided by this lens, we introduce two post-hoc treatments: (1) test-time posterior-weighted merging that aggregates nearby candidate trajectories; and (2) a one-step expectation-maximization (EM) update that replaces hard labels with soft responsibilities, sharing probability mass across neighboring modes. Across several WTA-trained architectures, these lightweight steps produce more informative, faithfully ranked mode posteriors and strengthen final forecasts on popular displacement metrics -- without retraining. Our analysis unifies recent design choices through a GMM-vs-K-means perspective and offers principled, practical corrections that better align training objectives with inference.
We recast pass evaluation in football (soccer) as a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-like evaluation problem whose components mostly exist in the literature under different names: a value model (possession value), a world model (multi-agent trajectories with ball interactions), and a policy over counterfactual actions (sampling pass variants with noise). Building on the first public high-fidelity tracking dataset with 3D ball trajectories from the Bundesliga, we introduce Monte Carlo Pass Search (MCPS), which infers kick parameters for each observed pass, samples execution variants and option variants, rolls each candidate forward with a ball-conditioned world model until the next ball interaction, and scores outcomes with a learned value model to obtain a distribution over gained value. This distribution enables distribution-aware attribution with two complementary execution-surplus scores used for analysis and ranking: mean-based and percentile-based scores. To make the world model sample-efficient under limited public data, we adapt a discrete-token, autoregressive trajectory generator from autonomous driving (SMART) and show it yields strong best-of-20 forecasting accuracy compared to baselines, while supporting fully hypothetical rollouts for downstream evaluation. We have released model checkpoints and code.
Hongwei Wang, Miao Zhou, Fengde Wang +10cs.AI cs.LG
Long-horizon maritime trajectory prediction is important for shipping management, logistics planning, and maritime risk analysis, yet month-level forecasting remains insufficiently studied. Existing deep learning methods mainly focus on short- and mid-term coordinate extrapolation and often struggle to preserve route feasibility and destination correctness over extended horizons. This paper investigates joint long-horizon vessel trajectory and destination forecasting with reasoning-capable large language models, and develops a Maritime LLM post-training framework based on Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Reward (RLVR). An AIS-based benchmark is constructed with 60-day historical trajectories and 30-day forecasting horizons, where trajectories are converted into semantic textual representations for RL prompt construction. RLVR aligns LLMs with maritime forecasting objectives by enforcing physical validity, providing early-weighted trajectory supervision, and evaluating destination correctness through hierarchical matching and curriculum learning. Experimental results show that RLVR-trained LLMs substantially improve over zero-shot LLMs and representative deep learning baselines, especially on destination-related metrics. Among the evaluated RLVR-trained variants, 4B LLMs achieve the best overall performance, suggesting that reward-compatible optimization and task-specific capacity matching are more important than simply using larger 8B or 14B LLMs. The results also show that LSTM remains a strong deep learning baseline under limited fine-tuning data, while Transformer-style spatio-temporal models typically require larger datasets and richer structured inputs. Overall, this work advances semantic, verifier-aligned maritime forecasting for operational decision support.