Entry-only automatic fare collection systems record boardings but not alightings, preventing direct construction of origin-destination (OD) matrices. This study develops a Hierarchical Bayesian Latent-Destination (HBLD) model that combines station-hour boarding and inferred alighting demand with passenger card histories. Trip-chain destinations are treated as noisy evidence with a reliability parameter, allowing destination uncertainty to propagate into OD flows. The model was applied to 838,305 bus tap-ins collected in Changzhou in May 2025 and linked to stop-network and hourly weather data. It estimates destination distributions over feasible downstream and reverse-direction through-terminal stops using network, time-of-day, weather, and smoothed historical demand effects. A Bayesian personalization layer uses prior card trips and reverts to the shared trip-level distribution when history is unavailable. Fitted by stochastic variational inference and evaluated on the final week, HBLD outperformed the strongest baseline. Observed boarding patterns consistently improved prediction, especially without card history, while inferred alighting patterns helped only when trip-chain evidence was strongly trusted. The model captured travel consistent with through-terminal riding and bus-assisted road crossing and estimated destinations for trips unresolved by deterministic chaining. Because true alightings were unavailable, scores measure agreement with trip-chain outputs rather than actual destination accuracy. HBLD provides uncertainty-aware destination predictions and OD matrices for service management, planning, scheduling, and resource allocation.
Transit video understanding can provide valuable fine-grained data that conventional passenger counters and fare systems cannot capture. However, supervised video models require task-specific annotations, while applying vision-language models (VLMs) directly to long onboard videos is unreliable and costly. To leverage the complementary strengths of both approaches, we propose GHR-VLM, a visual grounded hybrid reasoning framework for zero-shot transit-bus video analytics. It is motivated by the observation that explicit visual grounding can improve VLM reasoning by converting long surveillance streams into compact, passenger-centered spatiotemporal evidence. Specifically, we propose an edge-cloud design in which a lightweight edge-based monitor continuously tracks door status and segments passenger clips. A backend VLM then identifies boarding passengers and classifies payment behavior through a two-stage coarse-to-fine refinement of spatiotemporal evidence. By invoking the VLM only on grounded passenger clips and contact sheets, GHR-VLM reduces cloud inference, avoids payment-specific training data, and supplies the localized evidence that VLMs otherwise struggle to identify. Evaluation on 486 minutes of real-world bus surveillance video demonstrates the potential of grounded edge-cloud reasoning for passenger-level payment analytics while highlighting the challenges posed by degraded video conditions.