We establish a sharp phase transition for fitting random vectors by an ellipsoid. The random vectors have independent subgaussian coordinates with mean zero, variance one, and a common fourth moment, and the number of vectors is proportional to the square of the dimension. We identify an explicit satisfiability threshold such that, with high probability, a positive definite ellipsoid passes through every data point below the threshold, whereas no positive semidefinite fit exists above it. We also determine the optimal squared fitting error throughout the unsatisfiable regime. In particular, the threshold depends on the coordinate distributions only through their common fourth moment, revealing a fourth moment universality phenomenon. For standard Gaussian data the threshold is $1/4$, resolving the ellipsoid fitting conjecture.
We investigate message-passing graph neural networks with random node features. Random node features are known to enhance the expressiveness of graph neural networks (GNNs) both theoretically and empirically. Here, we establish a novel universality result focusing on permutation-equivariant neural networks (PENNs), a class of GNNs built from feedforward neural network components that subsumes many prominent GNN architectures. We show that PENNs, combined with partially random node features, can approximate arbitrarily well in probability any measurable permutation-invariant or permutation-equivariant function on directed graphs of fixed size with multidimensional node and edge features. For $k$-times continuously differentiable functions, $k\geq 2$, we also derive upper bounds on the approximation rates, relating the complexity of the feedforward components of a PENN in terms of layer depth and number of nonzero weights to the desired approximation accuracy.
Neural scaling laws describe how pre-training loss decays as power laws with training time, model size, and compute. This position paper argues that the exponents of these power laws are fixed by generic mechanisms: a one-third time scaling due to the strong nonlinearity of Softmax, an inverse width scaling due to representational superposition, and an inverse depth scaling due to ensemble averaging of Transformer layers. These mechanisms are robust to a wide range of data structures and architectural details, placing current large language models in a universality class with fixed exponents. The coefficients, however, are expected to be sensitive to data and architecture details, and directly determine practical quantities such as the optimal model shape and the compute-optimal frontier. We therefore argue that understanding the coefficients is the key to near-term performance improvements, and that a closer examination of the current universality class may reveal pathways to better universality classes.