LLM-Derived Preference Judgments Are Not Self-Consistent

Agents increasingly interpret a person's natural-language preferences by querying an LLM for numerical preference judgments, e.g., by asking how much the person would be willing to pay for an item. A growing body of work estimates a utility function from these judgments and then chooses actions based on their estimated utility. This pipeline assumes the judgments are approximately self-consistent: that a single utility function can reproduce them. But are they? To study this question, we measure the self-consistency of cardinal LLM preference judgments. For example, the difference in stated willingness-to-pay between two items should match the stated payment that makes a person indifferent to exchanging them. We develop statistical tests and interpretable measures of how far observed responses depart from the best-fitting self-consistent utility function. Experiments with flight, apartment, and hotel examples across six LLMs reveal large persistent inconsistencies. This suggests that LLM-derived preference judgments cannot be faithfully summarized by a single utility function.

When Should Active RAG Retrieve? A Budget-Aware Evaluation of Utility, Calibration, and Cost

Active RAG systems decide when to retrieve external knowledge during generation, making them a budget-sensitive case of agentic RAG and self-adaptive retrieval. Yet evaluations often leave the operating point underspecified: two systems may both claim a 50% evidence-usage budget while realizing different held-out usage rates, so higher accuracy can reflect a looser budget rather than a better retrieval policy. We study budget-aware evaluation for Active RAG by recasting active retrieval as utility estimation, where retrieval is valuable only through its marginal correctness change over a no-retrieval answer. This view separates three questions that single-point evaluations conflate: whether trigger scores rank useful retrieval decisions, whether thresholds calibrated on past data meet future budgets, and how trigger-side computation changes deployment cost. We operationalize these questions with exact top-k utility frontiers, deployable threshold frontiers, conservative budget frontiers, harm audits, and cost decompositions. Across knowledge-intensive multi-hop QA datasets and open instruction models, retrieval harm is non-negligible, router rankings change across datasets and budgets, nominal thresholds can miss target usage, and simple uncertainty or retrieval-score baselines often rival learned utility routers. Budget-aware Active RAG evaluations should therefore report frontiers, realized usage, threshold-transfer error, harm rates, and cost decompositions alongside accuracy.

Worker Utility as Hysteresis: A Preisach Model of Transaction Acceptance in Gig Labour Markets

Worker utility is not observed -- only its consequence is. Each gig transaction produces a single bit: accepted or rejected. We argue this structure points directly to the Preisach hysteresis model as the natural representation of latent worker preferences. The Preisach operator models aggregate output as an integral over a population of binary threshold elements -- precisely the structure that emerges when heterogeneous workers each carry a private acceptance wage. We estimate two latent utility surfaces: acceptance utility U_1(X) and rejection utility U_0(X), via a dual-output neural network (shared layers 256->128, margin loss enforcing U_1 >= U_0). Classification reduces to the Preisach gap U_1(X) - U_0(X), passed into an XGBoost classifier alongside clip-stabilised price-to-threshold encodings. On 36,891 gig transactions, this pipeline achieves Jaccard = 0.827 and ROC AUC = 0.799. The price-to-threshold encoding accounts for +11.0 pp AUC over raw utility features. The model confirms the directional asymmetry hysteresis predicts: price decreases depress completion rates more than equivalent increases raise them. Applied to the full dataset, the model's recommendations simultaneously reduce the total wage bill by 21.3% and increase expected fill rate by 9.7 pp. For 74.2% of transactions, P(accept) already exceeds 0.80; reducing the wage keeps it above threshold (mean post-cut P = 0.972), releasing cost savings (median 31%). For the remaining 25.4%, a median 7% wage increase recovers +43 pp acceptance. A model without an explicit indifference zone cannot execute both moves simultaneously.