Personalized video recommendation predicts user preference at the video level, while temporal video grounding localizes query-relevant moments. However, strong localization does not establish whether the retrieved moment constitutes valid evidence for recommending the video to a particular user. We study counterfactual behavior-grounded evidence retrieval, which separates where personalized evidence occurs from whether such evidence exists and evaluates whether model predictions respond consistently when that evidence is replaced. We introduce CBGER-10K, containing 5,000 controlled factual--counterfactual pairs for 3,026 users, where each pair replaces only the focal behavior-supported segment while preserving the user, temporal position, and hard distractors. We further propose CBGER, a compact framework that decouples segment-level localization from video-level evidence estimation and learns both through structured counterfactual supervision. CBGER achieves $0.4432$ MRR, $0.6977$ Pair Accuracy, and $0.6987$ Intervention Consistency across five adapted personalized-highlight and temporal-grounding baselines. Notably, compared with QD-DETR, its MRR improvement is not statistically significant, while Pair Accuracy improves by $11.03$ points. These results show that accurate temporal localization does not necessarily imply reliable personalized evidence existence, motivating explicit evaluation of Whether alongside Where.
Yuming Liu, Hongye Yang, Harrison Zhao +5cs.IR cs.CV cs.LG cs.MM
We present NEXT (Next-interest EXploration Transformer), a reasoning-driven video recommendation framework that reasons over the video a user has just watched, infers the viewer's next intent, and retrieves concrete follow-up videos. Explicit continuations such as episodes are linked directly; implicit cases are handled by generating intent queries and searching for matching candidates. This Item-to-Intent-to-Item formulation produces directed recommendations beyond co-engagement correlation or semantic similarity. To make this framework reliable at scale, we train NEXT-8B, a purpose-trained 8B vision-language model with a three-stage recipe: Perception-Enhanced Reinforcement Learning for query-agnostic evidence extraction, Distribution-Aligned Supervised Fine-Tuning over real and synthetic visual QA mixtures, and Group Relative Policy Optimization for last-mile alignment. NEXT-8B achieves the best single-model DocVQA performance, ranking second overall only behind a multi-agent system while surpassing a substantially larger 200B+ scale model, and improves next-intent logic-wise quality by 3.3% over the base model in a task-specific LLM-as-a-judge evaluation. We deploy NEXT as an additional retrieval path in a large-scale social media recommendation system and observe statistically significant production gains, including +0.53% watch time and +0.51% distinct video exposure. Overall, NEXT shows that a carefully trained compact vision-language model can serve as a practical reasoning engine for next-interest exploration at production scale.