MoRF-AST: Calibrated Probabilistic Virtual Sensing for Structural Monitoring under Changing Operating Conditions

Probabilistic full-field reconstruction provides uncertainty-aware response evidence for structural reliability assessment, yet inference from sparse and noisy measurements remains underdetermined. Most existing methods overlook shifts between offline training and operational distributions. Under such shifts, posterior intervals may become miscalibrated, causing the reported uncertainty to lose its probabilistic meaning. This study proposes Modal Residual Flow Matching with Context-Conditioned Affine Spread Transport (MoRF-AST) for calibrated structural virtual sensing under changing operating conditions. MoRF constructs an analytic Gaussian reference posterior in normalized modal coordinates and trains a conditional flow only on posterior-whitened residuals. At deployment, AST estimates response scale from historical measurements at installed sensors and uses gated, mean-preserving Bures-Wasserstein transport to adjust posterior spread. On a bridge-deck benchmark, MoRF achieves a posterior-mean normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) of 7.20%, compared with 16.1% and 17.9% for two direct conditional flows. Across eight shifted traffic domains, AST reduces MoRF's cross-domain average coverage error from 0.0535 to 0.0236, a 55.9% reduction, while preserving posterior-mean accuracy. The same transport does not improve the tested alternatives in aggregate, showing that calibration gains require its direction to match the base posterior's dispersion bias. MoRF-AST provides a data-efficient framework for probabilistic full-field reconstruction whose uncertainty remains interpretable under scale-dominated operational distribution shifts. More broadly, this work highlights the need to calibrate uncertainty under changing operational distributions, thereby supporting trustworthy probabilistic modeling and reliability-informed decision-making in civil and infrastructure engineering.

Low-Latency Activation-Regularized Sparse Neural Operators with Distillation Assistance Towards Real-Time Edge-Deployable Virtual Sensing

Virtual sensing enables digital twins and safety-critical systems to reconstruct and forecast spatial-temporal physics in real time. However, conventional computational and data-driven methods often face challenges in generalization, latency, and energy efficiency for edge deployment. Neural operators offer a promising alternative but remain reliant on power-intensive hardware. Spiking neurons and neuromorphic computing can improve efficiency, yet surrogate-gradient training and multi-step spiking introduce convergence and latency challenges. We propose the Sparse-Activation-ReLU (SAR) layer, a single-step alternative that promotes activation sparsity without surrogate-gradient training while remaining compatible with event-based computing. Within a trunk-based NOMAD architecture, SAR achieves over a fivefold improvement in the combined Latency-Error-Energy (LEE) metric compared with Variable Spiking Neuron (VSN) and Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) implementations. We further analyze spiking entropy and feature usage and introduce synthetic knowledge distillation, reducing the LEE score by more than twofold. Finally, we improve VSN through a ReLU-based spiking loss and graph-neighbor thresholding. On the Heat Exchanger dataset, these approaches reduce L2 error by more than twofold and nearly sevenfold, respectively, while reducing spiking and spatial aggregation. Overall, the work presented is a step towards energy-efficient virtual sensing by providing an alternative framework that can be positioned towards neuromorphic or other edge device integration that can be a gold standard to compare latency, energy, and error performance for future efficient designs that are sparsity or brain-inspired spiking based.

Simulation-Driven Vehicular Traffic Data Augmentation: Extending Sensor Coverage Through Virtual Sensing

Urban traffic management relies on sensor networks whose spatial coverage is limited by deployment costs and privacy regulations. Machine learning models trained on such sparse data cannot generalize to unmonitored locations and must be retrained whenever the sensor infrastructure changes. We propose a simulation-based methodology that addresses this problem by generating augmented traffic count datasets in which each physical sensor is replaced by a virtual sensor placed at a surrogate location in the road network. Virtual sensors are selected by a graph-search heuristic that jointly maximises vehicle-flow continuity and traffic-metric similarity between the original and surrogate locations, while enforcing a minimum spatial displacement to ensure diversity of observed traffic conditions. We validate the method on two Belgian cities: Brussels, using a calibrated model, and Namur, using synthetic models. The augmented datasets preserve the bimodal daily demand profile and the dynamics of traffic at the observed locations.

Bridging battery design and health assessment through virtual sensing and physics-informed learning

Supercharging of lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) requires robust health monitoring to ensure durability, safety, and user confidence, particularly for emerging vehicle-to-grid applications with bidirectional energy flows. Yet battery management remains largely disconnected from the material and structural origins of aging, limiting both interpretable health assessment and informed battery design. Here we propose a physics-informed learning framework with virtual sensing that infers hard-to-measure design parameters, including solid-state diffusion coefficient, electrode thickness, ion concentration, and particle size, directly from standard battery management system (BMS) measurements. Across diverse fast-charging strategies and driving profiles, embedding a digital-twin-derived particle-cracking mechanism as a soft constraint reduces trajectory and lifetime prediction errors by 6-8 times relative to state-of-the-art machine learning baselines using only 2% early-life observations. We further show that accurate degradation extrapolation does not require fully resolved governing equations; validated partial mechanisms, jointly refined with limited data, provide sufficient guidance. Virtual sensing transforms standard charging signals into latent design variables without additional sensors, bridging observable battery behavior and underlying aging processes while reducing capacity loss error by up to 39%, end-of-life (EOL) error by 17%, and prediction variability by up to 54%, enabling real-time exploration of new battery configurations. More broadly, the proposed framework establishes a practical feedback loop between deployment and development, demonstrating how real-world operation can continuously inform upstream design decisions across complex multiphysics systems.

Modular Foundation Models for Time-Series Perception in Digital Twins

Engineering Digital Twins and Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) systems rely on robust perception modules to extract actionable information from heterogeneous and non-stationary time-series data. However, most existing approaches remain task-specific, data-hungry, and difficult to integrate into scalable monitoring and decision-making pipelines. Moreover, purely data-driven models often lack robustness and transferability across varying operating conditions. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a modular foundation model for time-series perception based on a collection of pretrained representation encoders. The framework leverages self-supervised learning on heterogeneous datasets to learn transferable and task-agnostic representations, which can be reused across multiple PHM tasks. A gating mechanism is introduced to dynamically select relevant encoders for a given target dataset, enabling conditional computation and adaptive model composition. The selected representations are projected into a shared latent space and aggregated using a Transformer-based self-attention module that explicitly models cross-encoder interactions. The resulting architecture supports multiple downstream tasks, including imputation, long-term forecasting, and few-shot learning, through lightweight task-specific heads, while keeping pretrained encoders frozen during adaptation. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the complementary roles of self-supervised pretraining, encoder selection, representation alignment, and adaptive aggregation. Experimental results on the ETT benchmark show competitive performance across tasks, while a real-world industrial case study on virtual sensing for hydro-generator rotor temperature highlights the practical relevance of the approach.

PiGGO: Physics-Guided Learnable Graph Kalman Filters for Virtual Sensing of Nonlinear Dynamic Structures under Uncertainty

Digital twins provide a powerful paradigm for diagnostic and prognostic tasks in the monitoring and control of engineered systems; however, their deployment for complex structures remains challenged by model-form uncertainty, arising from unknown nonlinear dynamics, and by sparse sensing. These limitations hinder reliable online state estimation using either purely physics-based or purely data-driven approaches. This work introduces the Physics-Guided Graph Neural ODE (PiGGO) framework, a physics-informed, graph-based Bayesian state estimation approach in which a learned graph neural ordinary differential equation (GNODE) serves as the continuous-time state-transition model within an extended Kalman filter. The graph representation explicitly defines the system state-space, while physics-guided inductive biases encode known structural relationships and constrain the learning of nonlinear dynamics. By integrating graph-native learned dynamics with recursive Bayesian filtering, the proposed PiGGO framework enables online virtual sensing and uncertainty-aware state estimation for nonlinear systems with unknown model form, while maintaining generalisation across topologically similar structures. Numerical case studies demonstrate improved robustness to model uncertainty and measurement noise, outperforming both open-loop graph neural models and conventional filtering approaches in online prediction tasks.