Domain-Adapted Power Curve for Cross-Farm Applications

The wind energy industry relies on accurate power curve models to make power forecast, evaluate turbine performance, quantify upgrade, or support site-planning decisions. In this paper, we focus on site-planning power curves, i.e., we investigate how power curve models trained using turbine data on an operating wind farm can be transferred to a new, undeveloped farm. The traditional wisdom in the wind energy literature relies on distance, layout, or terrain characteristics for making cross-farm power curve transfer. Through the lens of domain adaptation, we propose a more reliable transfer learning approach for cross-farm power curve modeling. In the cross-farm applications, a domain is specified by the temporal environmental variates and spatial terrain variables. Domain adaptation is to find a capable similarity metric to adapt the domain on the new farm to that on the existing farm. Empirical results show that our domain adapted power curve consistently outperforms competing approaches by an appreciable margin for site-planning power predictions.

Clustering algorithms for multivariate wind farm SCADA data filtering

During wind farm operation, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems record numerous anomalies, transients, and specific operational modes, leading to large datasets. However, for a wide range of applications, only measurements corresponding to normal operation are required and, therefore, the SCADA data must be filtered. For this purpose, several methods have been proposed to automate and replace manual filtering conducted by experts via visual inspection of the data. In this paper, we compare the filtering accuracy of multiple clustering algorithms against manual filtering, introducing evaluation metrics that are suitable for unlabeled data and robust across potential applications. Based on the results, we provide recommendations for generalizing model calibration to different datasets and discuss potential use cases for each model. The models are applied to the SCADA data of three turbines of an existing offshore wind farm, using 10-minute statistics across multiple data channels. In addition to the anomalies and operational modes typically recorded, the dataset presents a large number of non-evident outliers due to several field tests. Overall, the results highlight the importance of extending the analysis beyond the power curve, both in feature selection and in the design of evaluation metrics. In most cases, cluster-based methods are able to detect both evident and subtle outliers, achieving higher accuracy than manual filtering. However, the accuracy and the amount of data retained vary considerably depending on the model, and expert involvement remains necessary, though to a reduced extent compared to manual filtering.

Spatio-Temporal Gaussian Process for Building Terrain-Incorporating Wind Power Curves

Accurate modeling of wind turbine power curves is crucial for optimal wind farm operation. Nearly all existing power curve models focus on temporal variables such as wind speed and temperature while overlooking the influence of terrain covariates, which governs inflow wind conditions and thus also affects wind power production. This paper proposes a nonparametric spatio-temporal Gaussian process model that integrates temporal environmental covariates with spatial terrain features. The model falls in the category of spatial-temporal Gaussian process models with data on a grid. The challenge to be addressed is that the spatio-temporal modeling require certain temporal alignment among the data, a property that the wind farm data does not have. Our solution strategy is to construct a shared representative temporal covariate set which not only aligns the temporal inputs but also has a size an order of magnitude smaller than the original data size. With this transformation, our resulting model is able to employ a separable kernel structure that captures both spatial and temporal dependencies. Empirical analysis on a real wind farm dataset shows that our method improves predictive accuracy over existing baselines and can be used to quantify the various impact of the terrain characteristics on turbine performance.

Stochastic weather generators for high-frequency wind vector time series

Surface winds can vary substantially from one minute to the next, so there is scope for studying its variation on this fine time scale. Restricting to the month of June to minimize seasonality, this work develops a range of machine learning models for generating realistic time series of surface wind vectors at a site in Lamont, Oklahoma based on more than 30 years of high quality measurements at the minute time scale. Such a generator could be used as an input into models from a range of disciplines, notably for wind energy, but also wildfire spread and aviation, among others. The data show complex diurnal structures in both wind speed and direction that would be challenging to capture with standard time series models, so we consider a number of machine learning approaches to producing a stochastic wind generator based on time vector-quantized variational autoencoders. We consider generating a day's worth of data at a time and generating a day of wind vectors conditional on the previous day's winds. We also study methods for incorporating a discrete weather state variable in the generator. We evaluate the generators using a wide range of formal and informal methods. The best of these generators can capture many but not all of the complex features present in the observational data. In particular, the best of our approaches accurately mimic diurnal changes in wind volatility but struggle to match the observed distribution of extreme wind speeds.