A Transferable Learned Temporal Prior for Transmission Reconstruction and Decision-Relevant Uncertainty in Real Outbreak Labels
Md Ahsan Karim
Abstract
Outbreak transmission reconstruction treats epidemiological timing and transmission labels as deterministic ground truth; neither has been systematically evaluated. We trained a logistic regression temporal prior on eleven disease families, locked all parameters before accessing any target outbreak data, and applied it without refitting to a strict Andes virus (ANDV) parent-ranking benchmark of 29 tasks. The locked prior achieved mean reciprocal rank (MRR) 0.571 versus 0.274 and Top-1 accuracy 37.9% versus 13.8% against the best source-trained parametric baseline (permutation p <= 0.0002; 7-8 reversals to lose MRR significance). A phylogenetic concordance audit of 75 NYC mpox inter-host pairs - independent label-reliability evidence rather than a prior validation - found that 54.67% (exact 95% CI: 42.75-66.21%) were genomically unresolved or unsupported. Retaining uncertain edges in ANDV and Guangdong Delta graphs shifted top-5 source-priority sets (Jaccard 0.429-0.667). Transmission-label uncertainty was measurable in the outbreak evidence modules examined, and retaining uncertain links changed which source cases were prioritized for intervention.
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Classified with taxonomy v2 on Sat, 5 Sept 2026.