Label-Free Foundational Model Selection for Medical Image Classification under Distribution Shift via Pseudo Label Discrepancy
Juan Iñaki Larrea, Lucas Mansilla, Enzo Ferrante
Abstract
Foundation models are increasingly deployed for medical image analysis. However, under the inter-institutional distribution shift typical of deployment, their performance varies widely and cannot be known without target-domain labels, which are rarely available. This leaves a practical question unresolved: given several candidate foundational models and labeled-data from a source domain, which one to deploy in an unlabeled target domain? We propose a label-free selection criterion built on SUDO, a framework for evaluating clinical AI systems without ground-truth annotations. SUDO partitions the unlabeled target data by predicted probability and, for each region, measures a pseudo-label discrepancy reflecting class contamination; aggregated across regions, this yields a score (AURCC) requiring neither target annotation nor fine-tuning. We show that AURCC can be used to rank a variety of vision-language models (BioMedCLIP, CXR-CLIP, CheXzero, MedCLIP, MedImageInsight, CLIP) on chest X-ray classification across three inter-hospital shift scenarios, under zero-shot and MLP-probe regimes. The AURCC ranking recovers the ground-truth ranking with Spearman rho up to 0.943 (p<0.05). Against the natural baseline of ranking by held-out source accuracy, AURCC is competitive when the labeled source is large and yields a more accurate ranking once it is small; the regime of interest in resource-constrained settings.
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Classified with taxonomy v2 on Sat, 5 Sept 2026.