Research on the agency of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) systems focuses on agency as a normative concept and on the agency of particularly agentic AI systems. While recent work also focuses on the different profiles of agentic systems, no framework exists to address the question of the type of agency instantiated by advanced AI systems, particularly when considering non-moral forms of agency. Based on established theoretical positions in philosophy, ethics, legal theory and sociology, we develop a typology of agency for frontier AI systems consisting of three dimensions: the nature of agency (moral or legal), its mode (individual or collective) and its locus (human or non-human). Combining these dimensions produces eight possible instantiations of agency, which we classify as conventional, contested or controversial. The typology separates legal from moral agency and thereby creates conceptual space for considering individual, legal, non-human agency without presupposing that advanced AI systems are moral agents. We argue that this distinction is increasingly relevant where instrumental goal pursuit complicates the attribution of AI actions to particular human actors.
Quantitative forecasts of frontier artificial intelligence often connect dated targets to trends in benchmark scores, training compute, release time, or expert belief. This paper audits whether the public measurement record supports those connections before another trend is fitted. I construct a frozen, event-centric record through 12 August 2026 with 62 selected systems, 12 versioned benchmarks, seven capability or impact criteria, 144 graded events, 27 source records, and 408 typed relations. The record is an audit sample, not a census. Only seven systems jointly observe estimated training compute and a METR 50 percent task horizon. Training compute is absent for 19 of 27 closed systems, including every selected closed release from 2026, while none of the 35 open-weight systems has a METR horizon observation. Benchmark succession creates a second break: a seven-system link from METR Time Horizon 1.0 to 1.1 has a log-scale slope of 1.206 (95 percent CI 1.021 to 1.390), whereas a six-system MMLU to MMLU-Pro comparison appears shift-like under logit and probit links but not under linear or logarithmic links. The observed bridges have about 80 percent power only for slope departures near 25 percent. Provenance is concentrated: 52 of 71 substantive quantitative events, or 73.2 percent, come from one measurement programme, and 76.1 percent are laboratory releases. A review of 56 methodological and empirical sources identifies 16 complementary measurement directions spanning resources, inference budgets, reliability, agentic work, safety, human preference, field outcomes, and forecast backtesting. No direction supplies a replacement scalar. The result is not that frontier AI forecasting is impossible, but that a defensible dated forecast is a claim about a versioned measurement system with explicit joins, protocols, links, and source dependence, not merely a fitted curve or calendar date.