Sofia Gulevskaia, Mikhail Trapeznikov, Aleksandr Poslavsky +1cs.IR cs.LG stat.ML
Accurate watch-time (WT) prediction is an important requirement for short-video recommendations. Yet WT distributions are near-zero-inflated, long-tailed and multimodal. The recent Exponential-Gaussian Mixture Network (EGMN) models the full conditional WT distribution rather than a single point estimate and achieves state-of-the-art performance. Our large-scale reproduction study reveals that EGMN is vulnerable to variance collapse, component redundancy, and inactive components. We propose a Hierarchical Exponential-Gaussian Mixture (HEGM) model that addresses these failure modes through a hierarchical skip-watch decomposition, KL-based variance regularization, structured initialization, removing the forced Gaussian shift and the entropy regularizer. Across public and large-scale industrial datasets, HEGM improves ranking accuracy and threshold-event prediction, while maintaining competitive point-estimation accuracy and substantially improving mixture stability and interpretability. A 1.5-month production A/B test confirms statistically significant engagement lifts. Our code and models are publicly released at https://github.com/rw404/HEGM.
User experience is a first-class objective in industrial e-commerce recommender systems (RS). Post-ranking strategies, which govern diversity, similarity, and exposure over a ranked list, are widely deployed in industrial RS for their simplicity and low serving cost. However, as the online recommendation environment evolves continuously, these statically configured strategies gradually become stale, thereby degrading the user experience. Refining them typically relies on manual inspection, diagnosis, and updates, making it slow, costly, and difficult to scale or reuse. Although recent LLM-based agents (e.g., RecUserSim, SimUSER, and Self-EvolveRec) offer promising directions, none of them close the full loop of automated, self-evolving strategy refinement. To bridge this gap, we introduce SR-Agent, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first agentic framework deployed to refine post-ranking strategies in industrial RS. SR-Agent unifies three components: (i) a UserSim agent that applies inspection skills to surface user-perceived bad cases; (ii) an Analysis agent that consolidates recurring bad cases into structured, reusable diagnoses; and (iii) a constrained Strategy Refinement Harness that maps diagnoses to typed and bounded actions, gated by a four-stage reward pipeline with reversible rollback. Deployed on the Kuaishou e-commerce platform, SR-Agent continuously runs this refinement loop and, in a one-month online A/B test, increases order volume by 0.71%, browsing depth by 0.34%, and clicked-category diversity by 0.48%, while markedly shortening the refinement cycle and lowering operational cost.