Mind the Noise: Sensitivity of Transformer-based Interaction-Aware Trajectory Prediction Models to Noisy Data

Trajectory prediction allows autonomous vehicles to anticipate the future behavior of surrounding objects (or agents) and, accordingly, maximize the safety and efficiency of their driving. State-of-the-art Transformed-based interaction-aware trajectory prediction models, which rely on attention mechanisms to capture multi-agent interactions and maximize prediction accuracy, are commonly trained and evaluated on long-range high-quality datasets. These datasets are typically obtained by aggregating data from multiple vehicles or drones and removing any object detection or tracking noise offline. Yet, information about a surrounding object's state (its position, speed, heading) is far from being noiseless in real-world deployments. Object state estimation is affected by perception uncertainties and localization errors that can be particularly large for objects received via Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) communications. In this paper, we analyze the impact of noisy object state information on the trajectory prediction accuracy of a state-of-the-art Transformer-based interaction-aware trajectory prediction model. Our study demonstrates that trajectory prediction accuracy can rapidly deteriorate as the noise intensity increases. Numerical results show that the prediction accuracy can reduce by a 1.3x factor under small noise levels and by as much as a 3.9x factor under the highest (yet realistic) noise conditions. These findings reveal the strong sensitivity of trajectory prediction models to noisy data, underscoring the need for more realistic training and evaluation datasets as well as noise mitigation strategies.

Energy-Conserved Neural Pipelines: Attenuating Error Propagation in Modular Neural Networks via Physical Conservation Constraints

Modular neural network pipelines suffer from error compounding: noise at any module boundary propagates and potentially amplifies through subsequent modules. We introduce energy conservation as a hard physical constraint on inter-module information flow. Activation energy (the squared L2 norm of feature vectors) is enforced to be exactly preserved at every module boundary. Unlike soft energy penalties, conservation is an inviolable law: the network may redistribute energy across neurons but cannot create or destroy it. Four experiments on CIFAR-10 demonstrate: (1) conservation retains 77.4% of clean accuracy at noise sigma=0.2, versus 35.1% for baselines and 30.9% for energy-penalized models (p<0.001, 5 seeds); (2) pipelines become depth-invariant, retaining 93.3% at depths 2 through 5 with noise at every boundary; (3) the advantage generalizes to systematic bias (+45.1%), Gaussian (+40.4%), and adversarial noise (+4.8%), with a principled non-effect on dropout (-0.3%); (4) on ResNet-18, the conservation advantage scales inversely with intrinsic normalization: +0.3 pp with BatchNorm, +26.2 pp without at sigma=0.2, reaching +58.0 pp at sigma=0.5. Experiment 5 validates the operator on a real modular robotic pipeline (MuJoCo physics, Franka Panda). Across three independent runs on separate machines (90 trials per cell), conservation provides +18.9 pp average advantage on monocular-depth-style noise. A formal bound proves conserved noise energy is strictly less than input noise energy.