Equation-Free Period-Aware Forecast-Error Contraction for Estimating Negative Largest Lyapunov Exponents from Short Trajectory Ensembles

Estimating positive largest Lyapunov exponents from data is comparatively natural because neighboring trajectories separate, whereas stable dynamics require resolving contraction before measurement noise or finite precision erases the signal. We introduce a period-aware forecast-error contraction procedure for estimating a dominant negative Lyapunov exponent from ensembles of short scalar trajectories without using governing equations or an analytical Jacobian. A k-nearest-neighbor predictor is trained on trajectory histories, the geometric-mean absolute forecast error is evaluated at phase-consistent horizons, and the exponent is obtained from the slope of the logarithmic error profile. Unlike data-driven approaches that reconstruct local evolution matrices or differentiate a learned surrogate, the proposed method extracts the contraction rate directly from out-of-sample forecast errors. Two adaptations are essential: the forecast step is synchronized with the detected orbit period, and candidate slopes are accepted only when they form a stable consensus across several transient lengths. On the logistic map, the method recovers 92 of 112 negative-exponent parameter values with a mean absolute error of 0.0253 and $R^2=0.886$. On a two-dimensional map without fixed points, independent scalar pipelines based on the three observables $x_n$, $y_n$, and $z_n$ give mean absolute errors of 0.00879--0.01145 and $R^2=0.983$--$0.986$. Because the estimation stage uses only observed trajectories, the framework provides a basis for repeated-relaxation experiments in which short sensor responses are available but the governing equations and analytical Jacobian are unknown. Experimental validation remains a subject of future work.

Scalar Representations of Neural Network Training Dynamics

Training in artificial neural networks can be viewed as a trajectory evolving through a high-dimensional loss landscape. However, the large number of trainable parameters makes the direct analysis of these dynamics challenging. In this work, we treat such training trajectories as temporal networks and apply recently proposed strategies for the scalar embedding of temporal networks. We investigate whether such a scalar embedding provides a meaningful low-dimensional representation of neural network training dynamics. Using a multilayer perceptron trained on the MNIST classification task, we show that the embedding preserves the main dynamical features observed in the original parameter space, including the emergence of sensitivity to initial conditions for specific learning rate regimes and an accurate reconstruction of the network's maximum Lyapunov exponent. We then use the embedded scalar trajectory to define a characteristic time, analogous to a Lyapunov time, after which the exponential separation between initially close embedded trajectories saturates. This characteristic time captures the typical decorrelation time between initially close network trajectories in the original high-dimensional system. Finally, we investigate the statistical organization of asymptotic training states through a spacing observable defined in the embedded space. We find that the distributions of rescaled asymptotic spacings collapse onto a common form across initial conditions and are compatible with a skew lognormal distribution. Altogether, our results suggest that scalar low-dimensional embeddings provide a useful framework for studying and visualizing the dynamical properties of neural network optimization trajectories.