Many scientific and engineering applications generate responses that are not scalars or vectors, but statistical objects whose form evolves over an ordered index such as time, depth. Probability distributions are a prominent example, capturing variability and uncertainty that cannot be summarized by low-dimensional statistics. When such responses are observed sequentially, the resulting dynamic distributional trajectories pose significant challenges for regression, particularly in relating scalar predictors to both within-index variability and cross-index evolution. We propose Dynamic Fréchet Regression (DFR), a framework for modeling index-dependent trajectories of distribution-valued responses. DFR extends Global Fréchet Regression by introducing an index-aware weighting mechanism. At each index, predictions are defined as weighted Fréchet means in a metric space of distributions (e.g., Wasserstein space), preserving the intrinsic geometry of the response. The weights depend jointly on predictor similarity and index proximity, enabling index-specific prediction while borrowing strength across neighboring indices. To improve interpretability in high-dimensional settings, DFR incorporates a geometry-aware feature selection approach based on sparse metric learning, which identifies predictors driving distributional dynamics without relying on Euclidean coefficients. Simulation studies show improved predictive accuracy and feature recovery over existing methods. An application to additive manufacturing data demonstrates its ability to produce interpretable, index-specific distributional predictions.
We study the minimax rate of estimating a future value $μ_{t_n+h}$ of a curve $t\mapstoμ_t$ in the $2$-Wasserstein space $\mathcal{P}_2(\mathbb{R}^d)$ from finitely many noisy snapshots of its past, under an adiabatic bound $\|\nabla_t^k v\|\le\varepsilon$ on the $k$-th covariant derivative of the velocity field. Our central result is a unified temporal-spatial minimax lower bound: over regular, locally transport-rich subclasses, every estimator incurs $W_2$-risk with $M$-exponent $γ_d(k+1)/(k+1+γ_d)$, $γ_d=\min(1/d,1/2)$ ($M$ the total sample size). It follows from a temporal-to-spatial reduction: the smoothness budget defines a reachable $W_2$-ball into which a transport packing is embedded along the time axis, and the information of the entire snapshot experiment is controlled by a Fano argument -- the spatial packing is classical, but its smoothness-admissible temporal embedding and the full-window analysis are new. The bound interpolates a dimension-free extrapolation floor of order $\varepsilon h^{k+1}$ -- the irreducible cost of an unobserved future, present even with the exact past -- and the spatial estimation curse $M^{-γ_d}$, recovering the static distribution-estimation rate as $k\to\infty$. We state the lower bound in a design-dependent form -- with a design-weighted effective sample size -- valid for arbitrary observation times, and obtain the closed-form exponent in the dense (equispaced) regime. The matching upper bound is established at $k=0$ (rate $M^{-1/(d+1)}$, $d\ge3$) and, in a translation submodel, for all $k$; for $k\ge1$ a covariant estimator attains the rate conditionally on two estimates (a comparison-geometry bias bound and an optimal-transport map-estimation rate), leaving the unconditional general-$k$ upper bound as an open problem. Numerical experiments on synthetic curved and flat families corroborate the predicted exponents.
Riccardo Passeggeri, Rohan M. Shenoy, Pengcheng Yemath.ST stat.ML
Optimal transport provides an inherently geometric and highly structured framework for studying spaces of probability measures, supplying a rich theoretical toolkit for contemporary statistics, machine learning, and generative modelling. In applications, however, the measures of interest are almost never known precisely, calling for a theory of optimal transport that accounts for statistical uncertainty. We construct such a framework, lifting the classical theory to the setting of random probability measures. We introduce the $L^2$ over Wasserstein space establishing that it inherits the formal Riemannian structure of the Wasserstein space by characterising distances and geodesic geometry. The structure induces random flows with Wasserstein gradient flow sample paths, making it the natural extension of the Wasserstein space which allows for random gradient flow dynamics. We ensemble statistical convergence results of the optimal transport machinery using the empirical measure within the $L^2$ over Wasserstein framework. Moreover, in the setting of Bayesian non-parametrics, we refine Schwartz's consistency theorem to the Wasserstein topology and deduce posterior convergence of the same machinery in the $L^2$ over Wasserstein space. We demonstrate that the growing theory of random token sampling for transformer models using self-attention flow paths can be embedded into the our framework. The results provide a unified treatment of random optimal transport and its consequences for principled inference and generative modelling under the statistical uncertainty of random sampling.