EDGE: a closed-form directed test for the calibration of probabilistic binary classifiers

A probabilistic binary classifier is judged almost everywhere by discrimination - accuracy, the ROC curve, the area under it. Every such criterion is invariant to a monotone distortion of the predicted probabilities, so a classifier can rank perfectly and still return probabilities that are badly wrong. Calibration is the property decisions need, and the field's instrument for it, the binned expected calibration error with its reliability diagram, is descriptive: it has no null distribution, so it cannot say whether the miscalibration it displays is real or noise, and it depends on the binning. We propose EDGE, a calibration test for the canonical probabilistic classifier, logistic regression. EDGE reads the same binned predicted-versus-observed table a reliability diagram plots, and projects its standardized bin residuals onto a small pre-specified basis of smooth calibration-distortion shapes. Its null distribution is a weighted sum of chi-square variables in closed form, costing one pass over the data and one small eigendecomposition: no refit, no resampling, no tuning, so it can run inside cross-validation loops. Binning also makes it robust to the sparsity continuous features create. Across link and feature misspecification the pre-specified default led or tied every rival binned test on the fitted index in 19 of 22 detectable scenarios, and stayed computable where the refit-based Stukel score test separates in 20% to 28% of sparse samples. Its honest limit is rough, high-frequency miscalibration, where omnibus statistics win - a limit an elementary resolution argument shows is shared by every binned instrument, the calibration error included.

Convex losses and their applications to SVM, SVR, and Shallow Neural Networks

We propose multiple new convex losses for SVM and Neural Networks, applied to binary classification tasks. While there are practical limitations in exploiting them with the dual SVM models, we are able to use them with SVM primal formulation and Neural Networks. In detail, the primal SVM problem with the modified losses has been solved with the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm. We prove that the proposed losses are a generalization of the standard loss, and we experiment them with several small data-sets. This preliminary study shows that using pattern correlations inside the loss function could in theory enhance the generalization performances on some data-sets. To evaluate the performance of each loss, we adopt a Nested Cross-Validation procedure. Results show that generalization measures are the same with or without the new losses.

SoftMCC: An MCC-Brier Calibration Bridge for Threshold-Free Model Selection under Class Imbalance

Model selection for imbalanced binary classification often uses the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), but thresholding makes validation rankings threshold-dependent. SoftMCC is a post-training MCC validation framework on established probability-valued confusion counts, coupling an MCC-specific calibrated identity with a tie-aware, shared-pool selection protocol. Its core score is a covariance-normalized probability-label association, reduces exactly to MCC for hard predictions, and is Pearson-bounded. Under perfect population calibration it equals the Brier skill score with identical candidate ordering; outside that regime the gap does not identify calibration error. Across 18 settings with 12 duplicate-safe grouped repeats, SoftMCC attains the best stability mean rank (2.31) and highest mean tie-corrected Kendall's W (0.659), with a significant Friedman test (p=0.007); Nemenyi analysis separates it from AUPRC and MCC@0.5, while 14-source-family sensitivity retains only the latter. Selected-model utility shows no advantage. Three of six prespecified comparisons have negative mean test-MCC differences, only F1@best survives Holm correction (p=0.014), and the dataset-level test is not significant (p=0.117). Label permutation lowers mean W to 0.092; temperature scaling shifts SoftMCC rankings (mean Spearman 0.851) whereas rank-based and threshold-optimized metrics remain invariant. SoftMCC is a calibration-sensitive MCC-family selector with bounded stability and utility evidence.

Variable Importance Identification Through Lazy Training for Binary Classification

Deep neural networks have been widely used in many applications (e.g., computer vision and natural language processing); however, understanding their explainability remains a challenging task. Recently, substantial research has been devoted to improving the explainability of deep neural networks, with most of this work focusing on the regression framework. In this paper, we instead focus on the binary classification framework and adopt a variable-importance framework combined with the idea of lazy training to propose an efficient algorithm for identifying important features. From a theoretical perspective, our method relies on only a minimal set of assumptions and achieves well-controlled error rates. The validity of the proposed method and algorithm is examined through extensive simulation studies and real-data applications.

The Calibration Channel Determines the Bayes-Error Proxy: An Exact Law for Temperature-Induced Distortion

The soft-label Bayes-error estimator beta(z) = E[min(z, 1-z)] of Ishida et al. estimates the irreducible error of a binary task directly from probability-valued labels. Recent work by Ushio et al. showed that this estimator is fragile when the probabilities are not the true posterior: even perfectly calibrated soft labels can yield a substantially inaccurate estimate, and they propose isotonic calibration as a consistent remedy. We complement that line of work by characterizing exactly how the most widely used post-hoc calibration map -- temperature scaling -- distorts the proxy. We prove an exact, model-free identity reducing the temperature-scaled proxy to the classifier's margin distribution, from which we obtain (i) strict monotonicity in the temperature and (ii) a continuous bijection from the temperature axis onto the open interval (0, 1/2), so that a fixed classifier -- with fixed decisions and fixed 0-1 error -- can be made to report any proxy value whatsoever. Under a Gaussian model of the logits we further derive a two-parameter closed form for the entire proxy-versus-temperature curve. Across CIFAR-10, Fashion-MNIST, and SVHN (eight binary tasks), the proxy varies by 56x to 980x at constant test error, the closed form reproduces the empirical curve to within 0.018, and the calibration temperature that minimizes the expected calibration error does not coincide with any stable proxy value. Our results give a precise, predictive account of the distortion whose existence motivates calibration-based remedies, and they reinforce the practical recommendation that a proxy value is meaningful only together with the mechanism that produced its probabilities.

From hyperplanes to hyperellipsoids: characterizing the inherent interpretability of linear and single-qubit mixed-state binary classification models

We characterize and compare the inherent interpretability offerings of a standard linear model with a single qubit mixed state model for the task of supervised binary classification. A side by side comparison reveals that a single qubit mixed state model for binary classification is just the ``ellipsoid version" of standard linear model classification. More precisely, rather than learning a hyperplane to classify data, we learn a hyperellipsoid. We discuss the consequences of the geometric inductive biases of both models, as well as how each model contains a different feature importance inductive bias. This short characterization offers an accessible route to quantum machine learning (ML) ideas for readers who have zero background in quantum and are only familiar with linear classification in ML. In support of ML pedagogy, we encourage instructors to utilize this piece to smoothly introduce quantum ML ideas into the undergraduate ML classroom.

PUe: Biased Positive-Unlabeled Learning Enhancement by Causal Inference

Positive-Unlabeled (PU) learning aims to achieve high-accuracy binary classification with limited labeled positive examples and numerous unlabeled ones. Existing cost-sensitive-based methods often rely on strong assumptions that examples with an observed positive label were selected entirely at random. In fact, the uneven distribution of labels is prevalent in real-world PU problems, indicating that most actual positive and unlabeled data are subject to selection bias. Building on the SAR-PU propensity-weighted framework of Bekker et al., we study a PU learning enhancement (PUe) framework using normalized propensity scores and normalized inverse probability weighting (NIPW). PUe's main contributions are a normalized inverse-probability-weighted PU risk formulation; additional theoretical analyses of normalized sample-weight error and common PU estimators under biased labeling; regularized deep propensity-score estimation; integration with modern cost-sensitive PU methods; and support for selectively labeled negative classes. Experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and ADNI demonstrate improvements over several PU baselines under non-uniform label distributions.

Cross-Audit Projection for Model Risk Prediction

For training-data-based model risk prediction, $K$-fold cross-validation~(CV) is widely used to mitigate the well-known over-optimism of the empirical risk and is often regarded as reliable. However, for binary classification via empirical risk minimization, our numerical studies reveal a surprising phenomenon: $K$-fold CV may perform poorly in estimating class-specific risks, even worse than the empirical estimator. We perform a higher-order asymptotic analysis showing that $K$-fold CV may converge at a slower rate, whereas the empirical estimator exhibits a second-order asymptotic bias that explains its over-optimism. These findings motivate a novel two-step procedure for model risk prediction, termed cross-audit projection (CAP). The cross-audit step adopts the same resampling scheme as $K$-fold CV to estimate over-optimism in subsamples, while the asymptotic-theory-informed projection step adjusts for the reduced sample size in bias correction of the empirical risk. The resulting CAP estimator is first-order asymptotically equivalent to the empirical risk while achieving second-order asymptotic unbiasedness. An accompanying inference procedure is also developed. Simulation studies support theoretical advantages of CAP and demonstrate favorable finite-sample performance. An application to breast cancer detection further illustrates the proposed method.

Function-Counting Theory for Low-Dimensional Data Structures

The success of deep learning models in classification and regression is widely attributed to the low-dimensional structure that real-world data tend to exhibit, despite their high-dimensional representation. This work attempts to provide a mathematical framework for binary classification on low-dimensional data, building on Cover's (1965) function-counting theory. With our framework, we aim to address the question of how the low-dimensional structure of the data affects the classification capabilities of learning models. Cover's theory relies on a general position assumption that blinds it to the underlying data structure. We refine this assumption to account for the low-dimensionality of the data and derive dichotomy counts that reflect the data structure. We further extend Cover's separation capacity and problem of generalization to the low-dimensional setting, enabling the impact of the underlying data structure on both to be analyzed.

Optimized Sequential Testing for Binary Ensemble Classifiers

Ensemble classifiers are predictive models that combine the results of simpler base models, often by majority vote. A classic example is random forests, which combine the predictions of decision trees. Ensembles that use more base models can be more accurate but also more costly to train and run. In this paper, we consider strategies for reducing the computational cost of binary classification using an approach from the field of sequential testing. Rather than evaluating all the base models and taking a majority vote, we evaluate the base models sequentially and stop execution when a clear majority emerges. We consider three different notions of optimality for early-stopping strategies that minimize the number of base models executed while controlling the rate of disagreement with the full ensemble. For each notion of optimality and allowable disagreement rate, we show that a linear program can be constructed and solved efficiently to find the optimal stopping strategy. We tested these methods on real-world datasets taken from the UC Irvine Machine Learning repository, and on the benchmark datasets proposed by Grinsztajn et al. We found that on most datasets, these methods provide speed-ups of 4x or more while controlling disagreement at 0.1%

Elite-Driven Support Vector Machines for Classification

Support vector machines (SVMs) are a standard tool for binary classification, but their classical formulations are purely data-driven and offer no direct way to encode trusted benchmark models or structured preferences on selected subsets of the data. We propose Elite-Driven Support Vector Machines (EDSVM), a general framework that augments regularized empirical risk minimization by guiding the slack variables for a curated set of elite observations (typically the union of support vectors from one or more reference SVMs). EDSVM combines the usual slack loss with a deviation penalty that shrinks new slacks toward benchmark slack values, defining a localized, margin-aligned notion of proximity to reference models, unlike global function penalties in knowledge distillation or teacher-student methods, and without requiring privileged features as in SVM+/LUPI. Within this framework we develop two concrete models, C-EDSVM and LS-EDSVM, based respectively on hinge-type and squared-slack losses. For both variants we derive dual quadratic programs that can be implemented with modest modifications of standard SVM solvers, and we give simple sufficient conditions under which the induced margin losses are classification calibrated. Simulation studies and experiments on several UCI benchmarks show that EDSVMs closely track the behaviour induced by reference SVMs while achieving predictive performance that is competitive with, and sometimes better than, C-SVM, LINEX-SVM, and LS-SVM.