Equation-Free Period-Aware Forecast-Error Contraction for Estimating Negative Largest Lyapunov Exponents from Short Trajectory Ensembles

Estimating positive largest Lyapunov exponents from data is comparatively natural because neighboring trajectories separate, whereas stable dynamics require resolving contraction before measurement noise or finite precision erases the signal. We introduce a period-aware forecast-error contraction procedure for estimating a dominant negative Lyapunov exponent from ensembles of short scalar trajectories without using governing equations or an analytical Jacobian. A k-nearest-neighbor predictor is trained on trajectory histories, the geometric-mean absolute forecast error is evaluated at phase-consistent horizons, and the exponent is obtained from the slope of the logarithmic error profile. Unlike data-driven approaches that reconstruct local evolution matrices or differentiate a learned surrogate, the proposed method extracts the contraction rate directly from out-of-sample forecast errors. Two adaptations are essential: the forecast step is synchronized with the detected orbit period, and candidate slopes are accepted only when they form a stable consensus across several transient lengths. On the logistic map, the method recovers 92 of 112 negative-exponent parameter values with a mean absolute error of 0.0253 and $R^2=0.886$. On a two-dimensional map without fixed points, independent scalar pipelines based on the three observables $x_n$, $y_n$, and $z_n$ give mean absolute errors of 0.00879--0.01145 and $R^2=0.983$--$0.986$. Because the estimation stage uses only observed trajectories, the framework provides a basis for repeated-relaxation experiments in which short sensor responses are available but the governing equations and analytical Jacobian are unknown. Experimental validation remains a subject of future work.

fSRD: Fuzzy Spectral Region Decomposition -- Automated Multi Operator Koopman Representations via an Adaptive Spectral Learning Architecture

Highly nonlinear chaotic dynamical systems remain difficult to model due to fundamental trade-offs between complexity, expressivity, and data efficiency. Modern machine learning methods achieve strong predictive performance but often rely on a-priori system knowledge or curated data with limited interpretability. Koopman operator theory offers a promising direction via linear representation in an infinite-dimensional observable space. However, many data-driven Koopman methods seek globally valid operators for which useful finite-dimensional spectral embeddings remain difficult to identify under these constraints. To overcome associated limitations, we introduce Fuzzy Spectral Region Decomposition (fSRD), a fully automated learning framework for estimating finite Koopman representation via multiple operators. The proposed method realizes a data-adaptive framework for assembling locally invariant embeddings, termed Invariant Decomposition. fSRD achieves highly accurate linear reconstructions of nonlinear systems while learning finite-dimensional representations of their induced evolution operators, bridging interpretable operator-theoretic models with expressive data-driven sequence learning. These embeddings are adaptively constructed via a global fuzzy tree model, drawing inspiration from fuzzy neural architectures to learn the induced dynamics while prioritizing parsimonious solutions. Empirical results across canonical chaotic systems (e.g., Lorenz and Duffing) and high-dimensional real-world data demonstrate strong predictive accuracy, interpretability, and robust expressivity across data-rich and data-limited regimes, highlighting the method's generality.