Which Metrics Save the Most Human Annotation? Prediction-Powered Evaluation and Meta-Evaluation

Across various non-verifiable tasks, human evaluation is reliable but expensive, while automatic metrics are more scalable but often biased. Building on prediction-powered inference (PPI), we propose prediction-powered evaluation, a framework that combines limited human judgments with large-scale automatic scores to obtain data-efficient system comparisons that are provably unbiased. We develop parametric and non-parametric procedures, analyze the efficiency trade-off between paired and unpaired designs, and validate the framework on six WMT datasets. We further introduce the Prediction-Powered Saving Ratio (PPSR), a meta-metric that measures how much human annotation an automatic metric can save when used within prediction-powered evaluation. PPSR directly targets metric utility for prediction-powered evaluation and yields more discriminative and stable metric rankings than existing system-level meta-metrics. Overall, our new paradigm reframes automatic metrics as tools for reducing human annotation cost rather than replacing human judgment, and applies broadly to non-verifiable tasks.

Revenge of Monosemanticity: Specialized Neurons Improve Data Efficiency in MLPs

Understanding how neural networks learn and organize features is central to understanding their behavior. Much existing theory of feature learning has focused on the emergence of a global low-dimensional predictive geometry. We show that this picture is incomplete. In regression problems with clustered data, we demonstrate that multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) naturally develop monosemantic specialized neurons: individual neurons become strongly aligned with a specific predictive feature relevant to a particular region of the input space. Rather than learning a single global low-dimensional representation, MLPs learn a collection of local low-dimensional representations that can collectively span a high-dimensional space. This specialization provably gives MLPs a data-efficiency advantage over feature-learning methods based on a global low-dimensional representation.

Non-Parametric Spatiotemporal Trajectory Prediction via State-Conditioned Transition Sampling

We present a training-free method for multi-modal trajectory prediction that achieves comparable accuracy to a 57M-parameter transformer while requiring no GPU and zero learned parameters. The method builds a transition table of historical state-to-next position pairs and retrieves neighbors using a product kernel over spatial proximity, bearing, speed, and temporal context. Two inference modes operate over this shared representation: diversity-penalized sampling produces trajectories covering distinct plausible routes, while beam search finds the highest-likelihood path. On the TrAISformer benchmark (Danish Maritime AIS), our method achieves competitive accuracy at full data availability and dramatically outperforms the transformer in data-scarce regimes---remaining stable down to 10% of training data where TrAISformer degrades catastrophically. This enables deployment in new geographic regions from an order of magnitude less historical data.

Bridging Compute- and Data-Optimal Pretraining

Classical compute-optimal scaling laws assume an unbounded supply of fresh pretraining data, yet pretraining is increasingly entering a regime in which compute grows faster than the availability of high-quality data. We propose Compute-Data (CD) scaling laws, a unified framework that bridges compute-optimal scaling, where data scales freely with compute, and data-optimal scaling, where the corpus is fixed while compute can grow without bound. CD scaling extends classical scaling laws by introducing a token-effectiveness function, $η$, which quantifies the value of a derived token-produced, for example, through multi-epoch repetition or paraphrasing-relative to a fresh token, ranging from a perfect substitute to having no value. We fit $η$ for two data-expansion strategies, multi-epoch repetition and paraphrasing, across model sizes from 14M to 600M parameters using the Dolma-3 corpus. We find that token effectiveness is far from constant: it depends jointly on model size, the tokens-per-parameter ratio, and the amount of derived data, and it saturates as the corpus is expanded. The functional form of $η$ implies diminishing returns when substituting compute for data as either model size or data availability increases. It also partitions training into three operational regimes---compute-bound, data-bound, and model-bound---and shows that classical compute-optimal allocation is suboptimal across most practically relevant settings.

Data-Efficient Deep Learning: Empirical Guidelines for Training Set Size Estimation in Inertial Sensor Classification

Deep learning models dependency on large-scale inertial datasets presents a significant bottleneck in inertial sensor-based classification tasks, such as human activity recognition and smartphone location recognition. In these domains, data collection requires massive recording campaigns that are complex, time-consuming, and difficult to scale. Currently, data-driven guidelines for determining the minimum sample size required to reach a desired accuracy level do not exist. To address this gap, this study presents a systematic empirical evaluation of learning curve convergence rates in inertial classification. We introduce a unified framework that analyzes classification performance under both binary and multi-class scenarios, and derive an empirical formula to estimate performance relative to dataset size. Testing across six diverse, real-world datasets totaling 102.7 hours of inertial measurements demonstrates that accuracy follows a consistent logarithmic growth pattern, regardless of task complexity. Leveraging this finding, we propose a quantitative stability point metric, defined as the sample size required for the learning curve to stabilize within a predefined mean absolute percentage deviation of its asymptotic maximum. Our analysis reveals that models often reach practical stability with substantially fewer samples than traditional heuristics suggest. Ultimately, we offer a generalizable framework to extrapolate total data requirements from small-scale pilot studies, optimizing the tradeoff between recording effort and model reliability. These findings shift the prevailing paradigm from maximizing data volume toward optimizing data efficiency, offering concrete, data-backed guidelines for planning recording campaigns in inertial sensing applications.

Confusion-Aware Transfer Teacher Curriculum Learning Framework: Disentangling Scoring and Pacing Effects

Curriculum learning couples two design choices, how samples are scored by difficulty and how harder samples are paced into training, making it difficult to attribute observed gains to either component. We disentangle these factors with two evaluation protocols: stage-wise test subsets that validate scoring functions independently of curriculum training, and a baseline that applies the same pacing schedule to randomly ordered data. Within the Transfer Teacher framework (TTF), we use these protocols to evaluate a confusion-aware difficulty score that considers both correct-class confidence and the probability distribution over incorrect classes. On CIFAR-10 with ResNet-18 and VGG-16, the proposed score produces model-interpretable difficulty rankings that align with human intuition. However, at full data, neither curriculum nor anti-curriculum ordering improves accuracy over standard training, indicating that improving the scoring function alone is insufficient to overcome the known failure modes of curriculum learning in TTF. In contrast, We find that confusion-aware curriculum ordering result in consistent data-efficiency benefits, outperforming random ordering by up to 8.7% points at the 20% data regime, suggesting the potential of TTF as a data-efficient training method.