At a junction, a score field can reveal weighted tangent rays, yet these first-order quantities do not determine how individual branches bend or how their densities change away from the center. Recovering this missing information is necessary for describing local continuation beyond a single point, but finite observations must separate branchwise second-order effects while allowing error in the estimated center. We address this inverse problem using matched score queries at noise scales $σ$ and $λσ$. For a finite union of $C^{2,α}$ half-branches in $\mathbb{R}^D$, the normalized score has the expansion $F_σ=F_0+σG+O(σ^{1+α})$. Matched subtraction cancels the tangent contribution and exposes $G$, which depends linearly on branchwise curvature and log-density slope. Given tangent directions and weights on distinct rays, $G$ uniquely identifies all $sD$ branch parameters, and $sD$ scalar component observations are necessary. An $O(σ^2)$ center error introduces $D$ translation modes, leading to $(s+1)D$ observations under full-rank calibration, except for a translation-invariant full line. We also establish a perturbation bound and a conditional kernel-density-estimation rate. Experiments reproduce the predicted population and $N^{-1/5}$ trends and remain full rank up to $D=20$ with 16 supplied branches. In end-to-end tests for $D=3$--$5$, a known-count first-order frontend yields full rank in all 135 population systems and a median relative jet error of 0.132. With strong first-order error, matched responses reduce median parameter error by a factor of 49.4 relative to naive tangent subtraction.
An intuitive method for dimensionality reduction is proposed, which is highly effective for finding interesting projections of multivariate data. Following similar intuitive motivation to a number of existing techniques, the proposed method is based on enhancing the nearest neighbour relationships in the data. The proposed projection arises from the spectral decomposition of a matrix designed to encode the local covariance structure in the data, where the local covariance at a point is captured by pairs of its nearest neighbours. We show that under standard regularity conditions this matrix is a consistent estimator of the so-called ``Density Information Matrix'' (DIM); a non-parametric analogue of the Fisher Information Matrix. Spectral decompositions of DIMs have been shown to be connected with the important problems of Independent Components Analysis and, in the supervised context, Sufficient Dimension Reduction. However, existing estimators of the DIM are computationally expensive to compute and only target the DIM of a surrogate density, which is proportional to the square of the true underlying density. In addition, we go on to explore the practical utility of our method in aiding the downstream tasks of cluster analysis and outlier detection.
We study posterior contraction in positive-order Sobolev norms and Bayesian derivative estimation for infinite-dimensional exponential families. We embed the natural parameter in a Hilbert scale and model it via a standard Gaussian series prior expanded in the eigenbasis generating the scale. Under a two-sided link condition on the Fisher information and suitable local regularity assumptions, we show that smoothness-matching priors achieve minimax-optimal posterior contraction rates in any Hilbert scale norm up to the regularity of the ground truth. Our analysis builds on the novel approach to posterior contraction based on the Wasserstein distance recently introduced by Dolera et al. (2024). It combines refined Laplace-type estimates for infinite-dimensional integrals associated to the posterior kernels with a mixed-geometry estimate controlling their stability under fluctuations in the data, itself resting on a tailored Poincaré inequality for posterior distributions conditioned on neighbourhoods of the truth. We apply the general theory to density estimation with a logistic parametrisation, Poisson intensity estimation with an exponential link, and the Gaussian white-noise model, yielding minimax contraction rates in Sobolev norms across all three settings. In particular, these yield optimal recovery of density score functions and derivatives of Poisson intensities.
Density estimation underlies many unsupervised tasks on tabular data such as anomaly detection, out-of-distribution detection, and data augmentation. Although all these problems reduce to questions about where probability mass lies, they are typically solved individually by fitting a separate model to each dataset, with its own hyperparameters and tuning budget. We introduce ICED, an in-context, energy-based density estimator that removes this per-dataset cost. ICED is a transformer-based model pretrained once on a synthetic prior built specifically for density estimation under an objective that fits log-density where it is informative and preserves its ordering elsewhere. In the inference, it reads a dataset as context and returns an unnormalized log-density for any query point in a single forward pass, with no fitting, sampling, or hyperparameter selection. A single frozen ICED model then drives four tasks usually handled by four specialized pipelines: density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, unsupervised anomaly detection, and generative augmentation. Across all four, it is competitive with the strongest task-specific method, while being the only approach that needs no retraining, no tuning, and no labels to move between them. The code is available at https://github.com/gmum/iced.
Lishuo Zhang, Ruizhi Huang, Yang Yu +1cs.LG math.NA
We introduce Potential Matching Optimal Transport (PMOT), a potential-flow framework for general $p$-cost optimal transport with $c_p(x,y)=\|x-y\|^p$. PMOT parameterizes the CNF velocity field with a scalar potential in the generalized Benamou--Brenier form for the chosen exponent $p$. It trains the potential gradient with a self-induced matching loss along straight bridges determined by the model's own endpoints, while allowing flexible terminal distribution matching. Our main result establishes zero-loss exactness: under the stated regularity, exact terminal matching, and uniqueness assumptions, any zero-loss solution satisfies the generalized Benamou--Brenier optimality system and recovers the corresponding $p$-optimal transport map and dynamics. On synthetic benchmarks, PMOT learns $p$-specific maps that agree with the corresponding $p$-matched OT references. It also remains competitive as a likelihood-based density model on high-dimensional tabular data, and an MMD-based color transformation experiment demonstrates flexible sample-based terminal matching.
Drifting objectives compare a target and model distribution through a vector field observed noisily at finitely many locations. We ask what distributional conclusion such a frozen measurement system warrants. For integrable antisymmetric interactions and absolutely continuous laws in a declared finite density basis, the unnormalized sampled numerator satisfies $\operatorname{vec}(V_X)=Mc$, where $c$ is an antisymmetric mismatch and $M$ is probe-dependent. This identity yields an a posteriori total-variation (TV) upper confidence bound accounting for held-out field noise, estimated-operator error, and externally validated $L^1$ residual radii around normalized density approximants in the span; a nonpositive observability margin returns the trivial TV bound and abstains. The audit recomputes this numerator from held-out samples; a normalized drift statistic requires a separate joint numerator--denominator analysis. For Gaussian-RBF interactions, a global envelope supports distribution-free and empirical-Bernstein radii without truncation, with companion bounds for the Laplace similarity in the original drifting objective. We characterize random-probe observability by a population Gram matrix, identify rank and symmetry degeneracies, and prove large-bandwidth collapse toward mean matching. Synthetic studies exercise Gaussian and Laplace numerators, separately prespecified bounded-vector and variance-adaptive radii, Monte Carlo-calibrated operators, nonzero residual radii around normalized finite-basis approximants, outward-rounded observability bounds, and designed abstention. A joint basis-size/dimension stress path extends evaluation through $m=8$. The result is a conditional diagnostic for a finite density class, or for normalized finite-basis density approximants with external residual radii, not a universal guarantee from small training drift.
Minimax-optimal rates for multivariate distribution estimation are known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We propose a sparse Bayesian network approach in which each conditional probability is estimated using sparsity-aware conditional mean methods. The resulting estimator, \textit{BAyesian Network Distribution regression} (BAND), handles mixed data types in high-dimensional time series and achieves polynomial total variation convergence rates while allowing the feature dimension to grow polynomially with the sample size. These rates are substantially faster than the classical optimal rates for multivariate histogram density estimators that lack sparsity. Empirical evaluations show that BAND performs competitively for data sampling and confidence region forecasting against a range of state-of-the-art benchmarks.
Sergio Díaz-Elbal, Andrei Martínez-Finkelshtein, Darío Ramos-Lópezmath.ST stat.ME stat.ML
Compactly Supported Radial Basis Functions (CS-RBFs) are a fundamental tool in multivariate approximation theory. However, their use in statistics and probability modeling remains underexplored, having been used mainly to express covariance functions in Gaussian processes or as kernel functions. This work explores CS-RBFs as a novel parametric family of probability density functions, focusing in particular on Wendland $\mathscr{C}^2$ kernels. The primary contribution of this work is the derivation of analytical expressions for various statistical properties, such as moments and the cumulative distribution function, of CS-RBFs as univariate and conditional densities. The approach comprises two alternative scenarios: when the CS-RBF support lies entirely within the variable's domain (untruncated support) and when part of it is outside (truncated support). Mixture models employing CS-RBFs are also analyzed, and their main properties are detailed. Furthermore, we introduce an incremental learning algorithm for density estimation with CS-RBF mixture models, in which centers are determined using k-means and weights and shape parameters are optimized by stochastic gradient descent. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that CS-RBF densities provide competitive results in terms of likelihood and model complexity in comparison with Gaussian mixture models. In addition, these CS-RBF densities allow the exact computation of key distributional properties in univariate and conditional settings.
Neural stochastic differential equations (SDEs) have emerged as powerful tools for learning noisy or stochastic dynamics directly from data; however, existing approaches largely assume uncoupled and continuous noise, limiting their applicability to realistic stochastic drivers, and often scale poorly in time, requiring expensive autoregressive training. To address these limitations, we propose Neural Kolmogorov Equations (NKEs), a deterministic, infinite-dimensional reformulation of Neural SDEs based on the Kolmogorov Forward equation, transforming the learning problem from modelling individual stochastic trajectories to modelling the evolution of probability densities. NKEs learn general Lévy-type stochastic forcing directly through the operator structure of the KFE, and enable parallel-in-time training via a Lagrangian Galerkin projection and operator splitting. We evaluate NKEs on several stochastic benchmarks, including systems with coupled noise and jump processes, and verify that NKEs provide flexible models that accurately recover deterministic and stochastic dynamics with competitive predictive accuracy and improved training efficiency. Code and pretrained models will be released.
Imbalanced learning addresses predictive modeling problems with underrepresented regions of the data distribution. Although widely studied in classification, imbalanced regression remains challenging because of continuous target variables and heterogeneous density distributions. Existing data-level methods often rely on fixed target partitioning or synthetic sample generation without jointly considering density variations and local feature-space structure. We propose DADIR, a Density-Aware Data-level Imbalanced Regression framework that exploits density information throughout the balancing process. DADIR comprises three components: (1) Density-Aware Adaptive Partitioning (DAAP), which recursively partitions the target space according to density variations; (2) a Density-Regularized Conditional Variational Autoencoder (DR-CVAE), which preserves sparse-region representations while learning latent features; and (3) latent-space data balancing, which combines feature-level clustering with oversampling to generate structurally consistent synthetic samples. Together, these components identify minority regions more effectively, preserve sparse-region information, and generate realistic synthetic data. The resulting balanced dataset can be used directly with existing regression models without modifying their architecture or learning objective. Experiments on diverse imbalanced regression datasets demonstrate consistent improvements in predictive performance, particularly in underrepresented regions, while also improving overall accuracy.
Probabilistic circuits (PCs) can model complex joint distributions while supporting exact and efficient computation of many inference queries. However, standard likelihood-based PC learning is vulnerable to overfitting and fragile generalization when confronted with data noise, small sample sizes, or distribution shifts. This can be mitigated using distributionally-robust optimization which consider worst-case distributions within a Wasserstein ball of the empirical distribution, but current methods are limited to training a model from scratch in this framework. Instead, we propose PeTeR: a novel, data-free post-training framework designed to robustify pre-trained PCs against distribution shifts without retraining from scratch. Empirical evaluations across multiple density estimation benchmarks demonstrate that PeTeR effectively robustifies baseline models against both random and adversarial perturbations, achieving competitive or superior performance to data-dependent robust learning baselines.
Normalizing Flows excel at modeling a single fixed density, yet many problems across the sciences, such as high energy physics, instead require modeling how that density deforms as a function of continuous parameters: the strength of a physical effect, a calibration constant, or a source of systematic uncertainty. Learning a separate flow for every parameter configuration quickly becomes intractable, since the number of joint settings grows exponentially with the number of parameters. We introduce Factorizable Normalizing Flows (FNFs), which represent the parameter-dependent density as a fixed, high-fidelity flow for a reference configuration composed with a learnable transformation that is polynomial in the parameters and factorized over them. This structure has a practical consequence: each parameter's effect is learned in isolation, from samples in which that parameter alone is varied. The combined response of many parameters is then recovered by summation at inference, without ever sampling their combinatorially large joint space. On a controlled problem with two interpretable deformations applied jointly to the data, the learned transformation reproduces the true deformations and matches the optimal likelihood, while optional interaction terms capture residual correlations when several parameters vary strongly at once. The resulting model is interpretable, scales linearly with the number of parameters, and keeps the likelihood tractable. This provides a general tool for any inference workflow requiring continuous density morphing, and directly enables the next generation of unbinned likelihood fits in high energy physics.
In a deep forecasting pipeline for fat-tailed financial returns at short horizons, which matters more - the backbone architecture or the output head? We compare four modern backbones (TimesNet, DLinear, N-BEATS, iTransformer) under three output heads: a point head, a single-Gaussian density head, and a Gaussian mixture density head with K=4 components. On S and P 500 monthly log-returns (1871-2023) under anchored walk-forward validation, the three heads form a strict gradient: switching from point to Gaussian improves CRPS by about 1.3 percent; switching from Gaussian to mixture adds a further about 2.4 percent. Switching between backbones, in contrast, changes CRPS by less than 1.5 percent on the point-head row and on the backbone-mean axis; density-head backbone spread is larger (up to 5.1 percent on the h=1 Gaussian row, driven by N-BEATS) but the head gradient (3.7 percentage points) still dominates. The Model Confidence Set on squared errors does not exclude any of the 12 variants at the 5 percent level: the head separates them only on distributional metrics (CRPS, pinball, coverage), not on squared error. The mixture head incremental value over a single Gaussian is largest in the highest-volatility regimes (13.9 percent in 1970s stagflation at h=12), confirming the mixture captures tail risk beyond what a unimodal Gaussian can express. The picture is horizon-dependent: the head dominates at short horizons, but at long horizons (h >= 6) the backbone re-takes the lead - an h-split we document against classical baselines (section 5.1). We conclude that on fat-tailed returns at short horizons, the head dominates the backbone, and the mixture distribution adds genuine value over a single Gaussian during crisis periods when risk-management decisions actually matter.
Quanling Zhao, Jiaying Yang, Ye Tian +5cs.LG cs.AI
Unsupervised tabular anomaly detection requires methods that are accurate, robust across heterogeneous datasets, and computationally efficient. Classical statistical detectors are often efficient, but they usually rely on a fixed data view and a single notion of abnormality. Deep anomaly detectors can learn more flexible scoring functions, but they are substantially slower and difficult to tune in unsupervised settings due to the lack of a reliable supervisory signal. We propose RGLD, a randomized global-local density estimator for efficient unsupervised tabular anomaly detection. RGLD combines a global random-feature density branch, which identifies samples in broadly low-density regions, with a local neighbor branch, which detects samples that are weakly supported by nearby observations. Both branches operate over feature-bagged randomized views, allowing RGLD to expose anomaly evidence that may be hidden in any single representation. We conduct experiments on 47 tabular datasets against 23 statistical and deep anomaly detection baselines under fully unsupervised setting. RGLD achieves the strongest dataset-level AUROC performance, ranking 1st in dataset wins, and ranks 2nd in AUPRC wins. RGLD is also faster than all evaluated deep detectors, achieving 50x-580x speedups, and remains competitive with statistical methods in runtime, yielding a favorable accuracy-efficiency tradeoff.
We introduce Perron--Frobenius Operator Matching (PFOM), a generative framework that matches density evolution via the integral PF operator, subsuming flow, diffusion, and jump models. We prove that among Bregman divergences, only Kullback--Leibler divergence preserves equality between density-level and sample-conditioned objectives, yielding a practical loss equivalent to Koopman path matching. We further develop Nesterov-accelerated training and sampling that stabilize discretization and accelerate convergence. %On Gaussian mixtures and two-moons, PFOM achieves faster KL/$W_2$/MMD decrease and improved wall-clock efficiency with empirical validation. PFOM unifies operator-theoretic identification with modern generative modeling and opens paths to adaptive dictionaries and high-dimensional applications.
Sampling from complex, unnormalized probability densities is a fundamental challenge in Bayesian inference and probabilistic modeling. While Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide asymptotic guarantees, they often suffer from slow mixing and high computational costs due to fixed or manually tuned trajectory lengths. In this work, we propose a novel framework that treats trajectory termination as a learnable component of the sampling dynamics. By framing MCMC within the theory of non-acyclic generative flow networks (GFlowNets), we train state-dependent neural classifiers to decide when a trajectory has reached a high-density region and should terminate. We theoretically establish the connection between optimal classifiers and the target density via detailed balance conditions and introduce a multilevel training scheme to facilitate exploration in complex geometries. Experimental results across various benchmark densities demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces average trajectory lengths while improving mode coverage and mixing compared to standard MCMC baselines.
Michael Denis Kraus, David Huk, Claudia Czadostat.ME stat.ML
Vine copulas provide a flexible framework for modeling complex multivariate dependence structures using only bivariate building blocks. Their practical success relies heavily on the simplifying assumption, which restricts conditional pair copulas to be independent of the specific conditioning values. While this assumption greatly facilitates estimation, it may lead to model misspecification in applications with pronounced varying conditional dependence. We propose a novel calibration strategy for simplified vine copula models based on observation-specific correction factors. These factors are derived using noise contrastive estimation (NCE), a supervised learning technique for density estimation that reframes the problem as a binary classification task with an easily sampled noise distribution. Treating the fitted simplified vine copula as the noise model, the NCE approach yields corrected log-likelihood estimates for individual observations, thereby locally adjusting the simplified vine toward the underlying data-generating dependence structure. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed calibration provides sensible and effective adjustments, improving model accuracy when the simplifying assumption is violated while remaining neutral when the simplified model is adequate. Two real-data applications further illustrate the practical benefits of the method. The results highlight NCE-based calibration as a promising tool to enhance simplified vine copula models without abandoning their computational tractability.
We study the task of density estimation, where we hope to accurately estimate a probability density from $n$ samples. A textbook method for density estimation in total variation distance is the minimum-distance estimator approach, where we conclude both the algorithm and the analysis merely from bounding the VC dimension of a particular concept class (the so-called Yatracos class). While this technique has originally yielded sharp guarantees primarily for total variation distance, in this work we extend the minimum-distance estimator approach for learning within Hellinger distance. Our main observation is that we may produce an analogous recipe for Hellinger (where we only require bounding the VC dimension of a related concept class) by drawing connections to recent results yielding reverse data processing inequalities. This recipe is flexible enough to accommodate fast algorithms originally designed for total variation distance; by modifying the approach of Acharya et al. (2017) we conclude the first near-linear time algorithm for learning classes including univariate mixtures of log-concave densities and mixtures of Gaussians (with arbitrary variances), with near-optimal sample complexity.
Christian Klötergens, Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi, Lars Schmidt-Thiemecs.LG
Joint probabilistic modeling is essential for forecasting irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) to accurately quantify uncertainty. Existing approaches often struggle to balance model expressivity with consistent marginalization, frequently leading to unreliable or contradictory forecasts. To address this, we propose CircuITS, a novel architecture for probabilistic IMTS forecasting based on probabilistic circuits. Our model is flexible in capturing intricate dependencies between time series channels while structurally guaranteeing valid joint distributions. Experiments on four real world datasets demonstrate that CircuITS achieves superior joint and marginal density estimation compared to state of the art baselines.