Confidence Calibration of Deep Learning Systems

In high-stakes applications, reliable confidence estimates are as important as the predictions themselves. Confidence calibration ensures that predicted probabilities reflect the likelihood of correctness, making it essential for safe deployment of deep learning models. However, existing methods typically assume access to clean validation data, which is often unrealistic due to label noise and domain shifts. This thesis develops methods for improving calibration under these conditions. First, we address calibration under label noise. Standard methods can produce misleading confidence estimates when labels are unreliable. We propose a framework that uses an estimated noise model to reconstruct noise-free confidence estimates by modeling the relationship between noisy and clean label distributions. We extend this approach to Conformal Prediction (CP), which provides set-valued predictions with guaranteed coverage. Our noise-aware CP method estimates clean conformity scores despite label noise, enabling reliable uncertainty quantification. Next, we study calibration in unsupervised domain adaptation, where a model trained on a labeled source domain is adapted to an unlabeled target domain. Since labeled target data are unavailable, we estimate target-domain accuracy from source performance and domain discrepancies, enabling calibration without target labels. We also consider privacy-preserving settings in which user labels and model outputs must remain protected. We propose a locally differentially private conformal prediction framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification while maintaining privacy guarantees and balancing privacy, computational feasibility, and prediction reliability. Our results bridge calibration theory and practical deployment in safety-critical applications, contributing to reliable, privacy-preserving, and noise-resilient neural network predictions.

Private Generative Bootstrap via Blocking

With AI systems gaining more access to individuals' information, it is important to protect privacy when reporting statistical answers. Equally important is to privatize the reporting of uncertainty in such answers. To this end, we adopt a Bayesian likelihood-free framework and make simulation from the posterior private. In particular, we propose a new private instantiation of the Bayesian bootstrap using a blocking strategy. Rather than assigning idiosyncratic random weights to each individual, we randomly group individuals and assign a single weight to each group. By concealing individuals' contributions within a group, we fortify differential privacy gates. We harness amortized inference that decouples private learning from posterior sampling. A push-forward map from observation weights to posterior samples is learned privately by adding calibrated noise during training. Subsequent posterior draws require no additional privacy and computation budget. We call the resulting method the Private Generative Bayesian Bootstrap (PGBB). We establish a differential privacy guarantee, analyze convergence to the non-private blocked-bootstrap target, and quantify the discrepancy between the ordinary and blocked Bayesian-bootstrap posteriors. In addition, we derive data-free tuning of the block Dirichlet concentration parameter that restores posterior dispersion asymptotically. We also show a single fit of PGBB can support a family of loss-based decision rules simultaneously without additional privacy cost. In simulations and in applications to U.S. Census returns to schooling and U.S. natality birthweight quantiles, PGBB gives competitive private uncertainty quantification and improves over private Bayesian alternatives that require a specified data-generating model in common settings.

Differentially Private Nonparametric Modal Learning with Applications to Regression and Clustering

Density modes provide a localized and interpretable summary of multimodal distributions, but their estimation under rigorous differential privacy constraints remains largely unexplored. We study differentially private recovery of density modes for multivariate distributions under local smoothness, curvature, and separation conditions. We propose DP-GRAMS, a mean-shift inspired method that performs noisy ascent on a differentially private score estimator. Assuming the density belongs locally to a Hölder class with smoothness parameter $β> 2$, our score estimator uses bias-reducing higher-order kernels, and then enforces privacy in the gradient ascent steps via gradient clipping and calibrated Gaussian noise. A private initialization scheme combines a density-aware utility with a suppression rule and, with $k\asymp M\log n$ draws over a public $h_{\mathrm{DAP}}$-grid and suppression radius $ρ_{\mathrm{init}}\asymp (\log n)^{-1/d}$, achieves high-probability coverage of the modal basins by successively suppressing selected local neighborhoods in competitive regions, while correlated noise across multiple starts enables joint release under a single $(\varepsilon,δ)$-differential privacy guarantee. We prove that all population modes are recovered with high probability and establish asymptotic error rates of the form $O\!\left((\tfrac{\log n}{n})^{\frac{2(β-1)}{d+2β}}\right) + O\!\left((\tfrac{\mathrm{polylog}(n,δ)}{n^2\varepsilon^2})^{\frac{β-1}{d+β}}\right)$. We also provide minimax lower bounds for private mode estimation, and show that our estimators are nearly optimal, up to a logarithmic factor in the MSE. We present two natural extensions: DP-PMS, a private modal-regression method, and DP-GRAMS-C, a clustering pipeline. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate favorable privacy-utility trade-offs relative to common baselines.

DP-IVON-Gradsq: Differentially Private Squared-Gradient Improved Variational Online Newton

Differential privacy provides formal privacy guarantees for training neural networks on sensitive data, while Bayesian deep learning offers a principled framework for uncertainty-aware prediction. Combining these two objectives remains challenging, as privacy noise can interact with the stochasticity introduced by Bayesian posterior sampling. In this work, we investigate differentially private variational Bayesian learning through the Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) optimizer. We introduce DP-IVON-Gradsq, a private variant of IVON. The proposed method constructs its curvature estimate from the privatized gradient using a noise-corrected squared-gradient estimator, reducing the direct interaction between posterior-sampling noise and privacy noise while preserving the Adam-like computational efficiency of IVON. We evaluate DP-IVON-Gradsq on CIFAR-10 against the standard private optimizers DP-SGD and DP-Adam over a range of privacy budgets. The results show that DP-IVON-Gradsq is competitive under weak-to-moderate privacy constraints, i.e., large-to-moderate values of $\varepsilon$, while degrading under strong privacy. Code is available at https://github.com/NourJamoussi/DP-IVON-Gradsq.git.

Near-optimal node-private community estimation in polynomial-time

In this paper, we resolve an open question of Klopp & Zadik (2026) by providing a high-probability polynomial-time, node-private algorithm which nearly matches the performance of their exponential-time node-private algorithm for exact recovery in stochastic block models. Our result involves an explicitly constructed Lipschitz surrogate for the penalized likelihood function, as well as a carefully devised accept-reject algorithm that samples community labels from the corresponding exponential mechanism in polynomial-time. We rigorously analyze the privacy, runtime, and utility of our proposed algorithm, showing that even when the number of communities K grows logarithmically with the number of nodes n, we can achieve the minimax rates for exact recovery with the privacy parameter epsilon growing as log(n), thus matching known lower bounds on the cost of privacy for this setting.

Workload-Preserving Differentially Private Synthetic Data for Causal Inference via Maximum-Entropy Calibration

Workload-based differentially private (DP) synthetic data methods privately measure aggregate queries and post-process the noisy answers into synthetic records. Generic workloads can achieve strong distributional fidelity, but causal estimands such as the average treatment effect (ATE) depend on treatment-arm balance and outcome moments that generic marginals need not preserve. We propose causal workloads: DP query sets designed around the orthogonal moments used by doubly robust causal estimators. The released workload can be used directly by stable moment-map estimators or reconstructed by maximum-entropy calibration into reusable synthetic data; our theory decomposes ATE error into sampling, privacy, workload-approximation, Monte Carlo, and calibration terms. We also introduce Causal-AIM, an adaptive workload selector, and a noise-aware multiple-imputation (NA+MI) procedure for confidence intervals from DP synthetic data. Because the workload is released once, the same DP synthetic table can support ATE, ATT, and subgroup analyses without additional privacy spending. Empirically, causal workloads are most useful at strict privacy budgets and for calibrated uncertainty, while generic workloads often retain an advantage for point RMSE as privacy relaxes. The broader lesson is a tradeoff: distributional fidelity can help point accuracy, but valid causal inference requires preserving causal moments and propagating DP noise rather than treating synthetic rows as real.

Enhancing Differentially Private Mechanisms via Empirical Bayes

Differential privacy (DP) has become the gold standard for ensuring the privacy protection of machine learning and statistical algorithms in recent decades. A plethora of algorithms and methods have been developed to enhance the utility of DP algorithms while maintaining the same level of DP. However, these are often overly complex or computationally ineffective. We propose a novel approach focusing on denoising the output of the simple additive Gaussian mechanism by adopting the idea of \textit{empirical Bayes estimation}. We highlight that the empirical Bayes approach can reduce the mean-squared error solely by taking the output of the Gaussian mechanism as input. Our numerical studies show that this simple yet powerful approach can be applied to improve upon various statistical problems, including histogram release, principal component analysis, and linear regression, often outperforming existing private algorithms.

Doeblin Curves

Recent research on Doeblin coefficients has shed light on their usefulness as a multi-way generalization of the Dobrushin contraction coefficient for TV distance, in a separate vein from their classic role in the theory of Markov chain ergodicity. However, strong conditions, such as being bounded away from 0, are typically necessary for Doeblin coefficients to establish the existence of information contraction. Building on recently formulated concepts of nonlinear information contraction, we aim to propose a finer-grained Doeblin-based characterization of multi-way contraction behavior which yields non-vacuous contraction guarantees even for channels whose Doeblin coefficient is 0. To this end, we introduce the notion of a Doeblin curve -- a nonlinear function which quantifies the contraction behavior of a Markov kernel on collections of input distributions at specific levels of divergence and power. Through the course of our analysis, we develop a new variational characterization of Doeblin coefficients, present several properties of Doeblin curves, define several versions of power-constrained Doeblin curves, and derive upper and lower bounds using our aforementioned variational characterization. We then utilize these results in diverse areas, including generalization bounds for noisy iterative optimization, error bounds for reliable computation with noisy circuits, and differential privacy guarantees for online iterative algorithms. In particular, we extend results in these areas to broader domains or group settings, leveraging Doeblin curves to reveal finer-grained contraction phenomena than Doeblin coefficients.

Private Learning with Public Feature Conditioning

We study differentially private (DP) regression in settings where each data sample includes public, non-sensitive features -- common in applications such as recommendation and advertising systems. While such label-DP or semi-sensitive-feature settings have been primarily explored in the context of classification, effective approaches for regression remain underexplored. We introduce Cond-DP, a conditioned variant of DPSGD that leverages the structure of public feature matrices to improve optimization under privacy constraints. Motivated by the observation that these public features often exhibit rapidly decaying spectra, Cond-DP incorporates a data-driven conditioning matrix to reshape the optimization landscape and accelerate convergence. We provide convergence guarantees for convex, strongly convex, and non-convex settings, and recover standard DPSGD as a special case when the conditioning matrix is the identity. We show how to construct an effective conditioning matrix for Cond-DP directly from public features, enabling provably faster convergence than DPSGD in private linear regression without incurring additional privacy cost. Empirically, Cond-DP with this conditioning matrix consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across a wide range of datasets and model architectures under label DP, demonstrating strong and robust performance in practice.

Differential Privacy of Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling

We study the privacy of releasing posterior sample paths from a Gaussian process (GP) when the entire training set including covariates and responses is private. Unlike standard differential-privacy (DP) mechanisms that add external noise, posterior sampling is random by construction. We show that this intrinsic randomness yields DP guarantees by deriving explicit Rényi-DP bounds for GP posterior sample-path release. The bounds separate posterior-mean leakage from data-dependent posterior-covariance leakage showing that meaningful privacy depends sharply on effective ridge regularisation. We apply membership-inference attacks to show that empirical leakage follows the predicted dependence on regularisation, posterior variance and the number of released posterior sample-paths. Utility experiments on downstream posterior-sampling tasks identify noisy-observation regimes where privacy-compatible regularisation preserves useful decisions with modest utility loss. When stronger privacy is needed, the intrinsic guarantee can be sharpened by adding calibrated GP noise, providing an explicit additional privacy knob.

Computationally tractable robust differentially private mean estimation

We develop a new, differentially private mean estimator called the balloon mean. The main features of the balloon mean are that it is computationally tractable and enjoys robustness to outlying observations. It is based on an iterative clipping procedure over expanding Mahalanobis balls, or ``balloons.'' The method satisfies zero-concentrated differential privacy and depends on a small number of interpretable tuning parameters. We provide theoretical guarantees under heavy-tailed and contaminated elliptical models, characterizing its statistical performance and robustness to outliers. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the balloon mean is robust to heavy-tailed and contaminated data, and outperforms existing differentially private mean estimators in contaminated settings.

Differentially Private Synthetic Data via APIs 4: Tabular Data

This paper investigates the problem of generating synthetic tabular data with differential privacy (DP) guarantees, enabling data sharing in sensitive domains. Despite extensive study, state-of-the-art methods often focus on minimizing low-order marginal query errors and overlook the challenges posed by high-order correlations. To address this gap, we extend the Private Evolution (PE) framework, originally developed for DP-compliant image and text synthesis, to tabular data. We introduce Tab-PE -- an algorithm for synthetic tabular data generation under DP constraints. Tab-PE iteratively improves a candidate dataset via an evolutionary process that leverages tabular-specialized operators to produce variations, privately scores them, and selects the highest-quality samples to retain and propagate. In contrast to the original PE, which relies on large foundation models, Tab-PE employs heuristic operators with significantly lower computational costs, making PE more practical and scalable for tabular data. Through extensive experiments on real-world and simulation datasets, we demonstrate that Tab-PE substantially outperforms prior baselines on datasets exhibiting high-order correlations. Compared to the best baseline -- AIM, Tab-PE improves classification accuracy by up to 10% while running 28 times faster.

When Do Fewer Coordinates Suffice in DP-SGD?

Differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) injects noise into every updated coordinate, making the injected noise energy scale with the ambient parameter dimension \(d\). We ask when private training can update fewer coordinates without losing the signal needed for optimization. We propose \textsc{TP-TopK} (Two-Phase TopK DP-SGD), a two-phase method for coordinate-sparse private training without public data, in which a private warm-up phase identifies a coordinate support used to guide the main training phase. We give a criterion characterizing when coordinate restriction can be beneficial, show via a nonconvex stationarity bound that under this condition the relevant noise term scales with the active dimension \(k\) rather than the full parameter dimension \(d\), and provide a lower bound on the reliability of warm-up-based coordinate ranking. Experiments on MNIST, FMNIST, and CIFAR-10 show that learned coordinate supports can retain more gradient energy than size-matched random supports, with the largest gains when the active dimension is small and warm-up scores are informative.

Lumberjack: Better Differentially Private Random Forests through Heavy Hitter Detection in Trees

Random forests are widely used in fields involving sensitive tabular data, but existing approaches to enforcing differential privacy (DP) typically degrade performance to the point of impracticality. In this paper, we introduce Lumberjack, a differentially private random forest algorithm that achieves substantially higher utility by constructing large random decision trees and then applying aggressive, privacy-preserving pruning to retain only sufficiently populated nodes. A key component of our approach is a novel $(\varepsilon,δ)$-DP heavy hitter detection algorithm for hierarchical data, whose error is $O_{\varepsilon,δ}(\sqrt{\log h})$ for trees of height $h$ and may be of independent interest. This favorable scaling enables the use of significantly deeper trees than in prior work, leading to improved expressiveness under privacy constraints. Our empirical evaluation on benchmark datasets shows that Lumberjack consistently outperforms prior DP random forest methods, establishing a new state of the art. In particular, our approach yields substantial improvements in the privacy-utility trade-off for practical privacy budgets. Our findings suggest that carefully designed DP random forests can close much of the utility gap, highlighting a promising and underexplored direction for future research.

Shuffling-Aware Optimization for Private Vector Mean Estimation

We study $d$-dimensional unbiased mean estimation in the single-message shuffle model, where each user sends a single privatized message and the analyzer only observes the shuffled multiset of reports. While minimax-optimal mechanisms are well understood in the local differential privacy setting, the corresponding notion of optimality after shuffling has remained largely unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce the recently proposed shuffle index and use it to formulate the post-shuffling mechanism design problem as an explicit optimization problem. We then establish a minimax lower bound on the achievable mean squared error in terms of the shuffle index, which implies that mechanisms that are optimal under LDP can become suboptimal once shuffling is applied. Finally, we construct an asymptotically minimax optimal mechanism in the high privacy regime, which as a consequence achieves a privacy-utility trade-off nearly identical to that of the central Gaussian mechanism.