Black-Mamba: Biologically-Inspired Leaky Accumulation for Conceptual Knowledge under Distribution Drift

Forecasting under real-world conditions is inherently non-stationary, as the conditional distribution of future observations evolves over time. Recent test-time adaptive sequence models address this challenge by updating internal states during inference, but tie adaptation to instantaneous prediction errors or surprise. This coupling can conflate persistent distribution shift with stochastic innovations, leading to unnecessary updates and inefficient adaptation. We introduce Black-Mamba, a test-time adaptive forecasting architecture that formulates online adaptation as evidence-gated state tracking under distribution drift. The model augments a base predictor with a dynamic memory updated when temporally accumulated surprisal provides sufficient evidence of a regime change. This turns adaptation into a selective, event-driven process rather than a continuous one. Across multiple forecasting benchmarks with non-stationary dynamics, Black-Mamba achieves competitive or improved predictive performance compared to existing test-time adaptation methods while significantly reducing the number of memory updates during inference. Together with mathematical analysis and biological evidence, these results suggest that accumulated surprisal provides a principled signal for distinguishing persistent drift from transient noise, yielding more efficient and robust adaptation.

ASK-NN: An Asymmetric Nearest-Neighbor Test that detects Distribution Drifts in Natural Language

Hallucinations and artificial text in LLM-generated outputs often appear as distributional deviations between prompt and response hidden-state distributions. Since prompts or retrieved contexts typically serve as reference samples and responses as query samples, with major differences in length, these asymmetries motivate the use of change test statistics that treat the two samples differently. We consider an asymmetric two-sample test ASK-NN based on the directed k-nearest-neighbor graph. Our statistic counts reference points whose nearest neighbor in the pooled sample is also a reference point. Under the permutation null, it admits an exact finite-sample conditional mean and variance; we further establish asymptotic normality and consistency under fixed alternatives. ASK-NN is computationally effective and easy to implement. Empirically, it is competitive with kernel and graph-based baselines on synthetic benchmarks, artificial-text detection, and LLM hallucination detection from token-level hidden states.