Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures are commonly motivated as a way to increase expressivity by decomposing complex systems into simpler local dynamics. This intuition has recently been extended to spectral state-space models, where mixing stable operators is assumed to enable adaptation to heterogeneous or regime-switching time series. We critically evaluate this assumption in a controlled synthetic setting designed to isolate dynamical rather than representational challenges. We study a next-step prediction task on sequences composed of three regimes: chaotic dynamics generated by the Mackey-Glass system, a stable oscillatory regime, and a noise-dominated autoregressive regime. Across extensive ablations including capacity scaling, oracle routing, frozen-expert variants, and comparisons to output-level MoE baselines, operator-level mixture models consistently fail to outperform a single-expert baseline. Increasing the number of experts leads to inverse scaling, routing collapses or fails to induce meaningful specialization, and even perfect regime supervision does not prevent degradation in global performance. Furthermore, we show that apparent improvements in mean squared error on chaotic trajectories can be misleading. Phase-space analysis reveals that lower error often arises from temporal smoothing that destroys the geometry of the underlying attractor rather than from faithful modeling of the dynamics. These results identify a likely limitation of operator interpolation under the studied parameterization and training protocol, and underscore the need for geometry-aware evaluation when assessing regime-switching dynamical systems.
We develop analytical and particle-based methods for uncertainty propagation in random neural network models, where both the inputs and network parameters are allowed to be random. Building on the piecewise-linear structure of the Leaky ReLU activation function, we derive a local approximation of the neural network output with respect to perturbations in both its inputs and parameters. This approximation is exact for perturbations that preserve the network activation pattern, and it allows us to compute analytical expressions for the probability density function and characteristic function of the network output, together with closed-form approximations for its mean and covariance. We extend this uncertainty propagation framework to autonomous dynamical systems whose one-step evolution map is represented by a random neural network. Repeated application of this map defines an autoregressive model, for which we derive recursive equations to propagate uncertainty in both the state and network parameters over time. These equations explicitly account for the state-parameter cross-covariance that develops under successive iterations of the network. Numerical experiments on the Lorenz-63 system and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation demonstrate accurate uncertainty propagation through the predictability horizon and the applicability of the proposed framework to high-dimensional dynamical systems.
Dimension reduction for dynamical systems is standard practice, and the standard route is spectral: model the transfer (Koopman) operator by its leading modes. We show that on systems assembled from several weakly interacting components --- a structure common in physical and biological settings --- this may either require an exponential number of modes, or drop an entire component: the component is absent from the model rather than modeled coarsely, and no function of it can be predicted at any accuracy. We call this linear masking. The cause is that a rank-based model pays one coordinate per mode. We propose to score instead the $σ$-algebra the coordinates generate, so that products and powers come free and a component's cost is governed only by its generators rather than by all its interactions. The criterion is a $χ^2$-divergence between the embedded present and future, and it carries a budget guarantee: twice the intrinsic dimension of the dynamics is enough coordinates for an embedding whose algebra carries the operator's entire spectrum, with its full infinite rank. In variational form the criterion admits off-the-shelf estimators, and restricting its critic to the bilinear class returns the VAMP score on the span, so rank-based methods are one end of the same family. We demonstrate the proposed objective on a composite of published benchmark systems. We exhibit examples where the rank-based methods completely miss the masked components at all ranks $k<100$, while ten algebra coordinates recover all of them. In addition, the resulting algebra representation supports predicting the masked components from few labels, while direct regression from the high-dimensional observation or from the VAMP features fail.
Dimitrios Pylorof, Humberto E. Garciaeess.SY cs.LG math.OC
What should a machine learning model learn when data is missing during training? We look at the learning process from a dynamical systems perspective, cast data missingness as a structured loss of actuation that limits controllability of the parameter error dynamics, and ultimately derive adaptation mechanisms with Lyapunov stability characteristics that throttle model updates in ways that preserve learning coherence under partial, intermittent observability. Under recurrent excitation, our analysis provides ISS-type residual-to-state bounds with respect to a bounded closed-loop mismatch between the loss residual and the preconditioned update geometry. We evaluate the efficacy of our directional observability-aware adaptive learning approach on multimodal contexts, reinforcing its premise in promoting learning coherence and stability even in pathologically sparse domains and problems.
Echo State Networks (ESNs) offer an efficient framework for temporal prediction, but their randomly initialized reservoirs are often over-parameterized and dynamically redundant. Existing pruning methods largely rely on static connectivity or activation statistics, which may overlook neurons that shape input-driven state transitions. We propose Dynamical Mode Pruning (DMP), a reservoir pruning method that ranks neurons by their contribution to dominant transition modes obtained from a trajectory-averaged Jacobian Gramian. DMP removes low-impact units and retrains only the readout. Experiments on chaotic and real-world time-series benchmarks show that DMP improves or preserves forecasting accuracy while reducing redundant reservoir components. Our results suggest that dynamical influence is a useful criterion for reservoir refinement beyond static structural importance alone.
We present a novel approach to regression tasks using classification which is motivated by the mechanism used by fruitflies to sense their environment. Specifically, we formulate a general framework for learning nonlinear input-output relationships by replacing complex global surrogate models with a finite library of representative local patterns. Since scientific data often occupy limited and recurring regions of the input space, we generate predictions by measuring similarities between a query and stored patterns, then combining their associated responses through weighted reconstruction. We apply this approach to nonlinear dynamical systems, data-driven regression, and physics-informed learning using suitable embeddings and similarity measures. For dynamical systems, our offline-online workflow extracts patterns from data or governing equations during the offline phase, while online prediction requires only similarity evaluation and response aggregation. This structure helps us reduce computational and memory demands while providing explicit control over the trade-off among accuracy, storage, and inference cost.
Reservoir computing has emerged as an efficient machine learning framework for predicting time series generated by dynamical systems. In contrast to other machine and deep learning approaches, a reservoir computing trains only the output layer via linear regression, leaving the reservoir (recurrent layer) untrained. This simplification makes reservoir computers easier to train and more amenable to experimentation. However, because current reservoirs consist of networks of randomly connected nodes and require the optimization of numerous hyperparameters, a framework that precisely explains how reservoir computing operates and how it can be optimized remains missing. Here, we propose a frequency-based reservoir inspired by the brain's oscillatory dynamics and its hierarchy of timescales. The frequency-based reservoir can be interpreted as an ensemble of independent oscillatory units, each processing a portion of the input's frequency content. This allows us to understand the reservoir's internal behavior by modeling it as a single unit driven by an external input. Borrowing from the theory of a nonlinear oscillator forced by complex periodic inputs, we found that units of the frequency-based reservoir selectively amplify and store specific input frequencies, which are then used for prediction. The frequency-based reservoir performs as well as or better than equivalent random reservoirs. Furthermore, the frequency-based approach can be optimized to improve short-term prediction, a property that random reservoirs lack. Finally, we show that the frequency-based reservoir can also predict complex spatiotemporal dynamics. Our results show that reservoir computing can be designed using brain properties and theoretical insights borrowed from the physics of forced nonlinear oscillators.
Matteo Gallo, Fabio Anselmi, Paolo Lazzarics.LG nlin.CD
Symbolic discovery of governing equations from data is limited not only by algorithm design and data volume, but by the geometry of the attractor: what the long-run dynamics allow to be recovered. Using a within-system design on Lorenz-84, where one forcing parameter drives fixed-point, limit-cycle, and chaotic regimes while the governing equations and library stay fixed, we show that a single number, $λ_{\min}(M)$, the smallest eigenvalue of the invariant-measure moment matrix, sets the identifiability ceiling for both sparse regression (SINDy) and evolutionary symbolic regression (PySR). Derived from the Birkhoff ergodic theorem and obtained from a short reference trajectory before any run, $λ_{\min}(M)$ measures how fully the attractor covers function space: where it vanishes, recovery is impossible for any algorithm, sparse or combinatorial alike; as it grows, both algorithms improve. Chaos raises $λ_{\min}(M)$ by spreading the attractor, but also enlarges it and amplifies noise; because noise enters SINDy's regression bottleneck linearly and PySR's discrimination channel superlinearly, the same transition can push the two methods in opposite directions, so deeper chaos is not uniformly better. Parameter-free mechanistic scores from this framework transfer without refitting to a held-out Lorenz-96 system, confirming mechanism rather than curve-fitting; a criterion read from the equations predicts when added chaos will not improve conditioning. We also introduce Soft F1, a coefficient-weighted structural metric that resolves performance differences invisible to binary-success and predictive scores. The first question of discovery is then not which algorithm, but what the attractor permits.
Charles Bokor, Mark Cary, Denise Morrey +1cs.LG math.DS
Highly nonlinear chaotic dynamical systems remain difficult to model due to fundamental trade-offs between complexity, expressivity, and data efficiency. Modern machine learning methods achieve strong predictive performance but often rely on a-priori system knowledge or curated data with limited interpretability. Koopman operator theory offers a promising direction via linear representation in an infinite-dimensional observable space. However, many data-driven Koopman methods seek globally valid operators for which useful finite-dimensional spectral embeddings remain difficult to identify under these constraints. To overcome associated limitations, we introduce Fuzzy Spectral Region Decomposition (fSRD), a fully automated learning framework for estimating finite Koopman representation via multiple operators. The proposed method realizes a data-adaptive framework for assembling locally invariant embeddings, termed Invariant Decomposition. fSRD achieves highly accurate linear reconstructions of nonlinear systems while learning finite-dimensional representations of their induced evolution operators, bridging interpretable operator-theoretic models with expressive data-driven sequence learning. These embeddings are adaptively constructed via a global fuzzy tree model, drawing inspiration from fuzzy neural architectures to learn the induced dynamics while prioritizing parsimonious solutions. Empirical results across canonical chaotic systems (e.g., Lorenz and Duffing) and high-dimensional real-world data demonstrate strong predictive accuracy, interpretability, and robust expressivity across data-rich and data-limited regimes, highlighting the method's generality.
Lorenzo Tomaz, Judd Rosenblatt, Flavio Kicis +2cs.LG stat.ML
Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) approximates Koopman operators from data, but a single global operator is inefficient when different state-space regions exhibit distinct local dynamics. We introduce Cluster-Weighted EDMD (CW-EDMD), which jointly learns a soft phase-space partition and a per-cluster EDMD operator. Its Expectation-Maximization (EM) objective assigns each transition based on both geometric proximity and prediction residuals, so clusters specialize where local Koopman models are accurate rather than where the data are dense. On Lorenz, damped pendulum, and Duffing systems, across 36 configurations and 10 seeds, CW-EDMD improves matched-degree EDMD in one-step and 5s-rollout prediction. Across 288 paired comparisons, there are significant error reductions in 258 cases, increases in 4, and no differences in 26. Median one-step error reductions are 57x, 2.7x, and 12x on pendulum, Duffing, and Lorenz, respectively.
Recurrent representations are trajectories, but representation geometry is often measured from static snapshots. We develop finite-lag operator geometry for recurrent hidden states from observed source-successor pairs $(X_t,X_{t+Δ})$. The primitive is the conditional transport law $Q_Δ(dy\mid x)$, estimated by a dense Gaussian source-smoothing operator. From this directed finite-lag law we derive a source-centered transport tensor $G_Δ$, which decomposes exactly into conditional spread and coherent displacement, and an antisymmetric coordinate circulation $W_Δ^ρ$, which summarizes directed lagged flow. We prove affine covariance with explicit metric dependence of scalar summaries, dense estimator stability on bounded trajectory clouds, and a finite-lag separation result showing that source-centered transport detects deterministic recurrent motion not recorded by infinitesimal carre-du-champ geometry. A linear-Gaussian closed form calibrates the quantities in terms of the update $A_Δ$, source covariance, and innovation covariance. Controlled experiments validate the decomposition, circulation, covariance, and stability predictions. In performance matched repeat-copy networks, the framework reveals architecture dependent differences in total transport scale and coherent displacement trace, while coherent displacement fraction is metric and resolution dependent.
Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems seeks to infer the evolving conditional distribution of the state of a dynamical system, given observations, in an online fashion. This Bayesian filtering distribution is the natural object for uncertainty quantification, but it is rarely available as a supervised learning target. However, one can often use the forecast model to generate synthetic system trajectories, along with synthetic observations. We introduce the proper scoring ensemble filter (PSEF), an ensemble data assimilation method based on training an analysis map to approximate the filtering distribution using only synthetic state--observation trajectories. The analysis step is represented as a permutation-invariant, transformer-based map that takes as input a forecast ensemble and observations, producing an analysis ensemble. Training is based on strictly proper scoring rules -- with the energy score used in our implementation -- so that probabilistic accuracy is rewarded over the whole probability distribution. We prove that, under a realizability assumption, the population objective is minimized by the true Bayesian filtering distribution. We also derive the finite-ensemble empirical objective used in training and relate its single state--observation trajectory form to the population objective, using a mean-field consistency argument. Numerical experiments show that the learned filter accurately approximates challenging filtering distributions, including nonlinear, non-Gaussian, and multi-modal posteriors, and achieves stronger performance in data assimilation tasks than classical methods or learning-based methods with mean-squared-error objectives. For close-to-Gaussian problems, learning a correction to the EnKF is the best approach, while for highly non-Gaussian problems an end-to-end approach that discards this inductive bias is superior.
Cristian Brugnara, Lea Multerer, Marco Forgione +1cs.LG
Estimating parameters of dynamical systems from sparse, noisy, and irregularly sampled data is often severely ill-conditioned. When multiple related datasets are available, they provide additional information if the shared structure and variability are properly modeled. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian framework for probabilistic meta-learning in dynamical systems, modeling dataset-specific parameters as draws from a shared population distribution. A numerical ODE solver is embedded within gradient-based MCMC to enable efficient posterior inference of the shared population and dataset-specific parameter distribution. Experiments show improved predictive performance over unpooled methods, highlighting the potential for data-efficient system identification in settings with sparse data.
Feliciano Giuseppe Pacifico, Duccio Fanelli, Lorenzo Buffoni +3cond-mat.dis-nn cs.LG
In this work, Neural ODEs equipped with a curated collection of equilibrium points have been successfully employed for classification tasks.The planted attractors serve as indicators for the target classes, while the velocity field leveraging the universal approximation capabilities of the architecture shapes the dynamical landscape.This process defines the basins of attraction of the trained model, effectively directing each input provided as an initial condition toward its corresponding destination target.
Davide Prosperino, Haochun Ma, Christoph Räthcs.LG nlin.CD
Detecting when a nonlinear dynamical system departs from its normal regime is a recurring problem across the sciences, from cardiology to climate and energy systems. We show that a very simple Kolmogorov--Smirnov test on the output weights of a reservoir computer is highly sensitive to regime changes in nonlinear dynamical systems, including those invisible to both classical nonlinear measures and modern deep-learning detectors. The core idea of our algorithm is to treat the readout layer of a reservoir computer as a representation of the input dynamics. Since the input mapping and the reservoir itself are random and fixed, the trained output weights are the only object encoding the system at hand. We summarize this fingerprint by the empirical cumulative distribution function of the readout weights and compare it to a reference band built from the training data. This unsupervised, online detector distinguishes two visually indistinguishable butterfly-shaped attractors, resolves parameter drifts seven times smaller than the strongest deep-learning baseline, flags noise four orders of magnitude below the signal, and identifies ventricular flutter in a clinical ECG recording. More broadly, we aim to establish a perspective on reservoir computers in which the trained output weights are treated as a representation of the learned system in their own right, rather than merely as a means to forecasting.
Reservoir computing offers a lightweight framework for forecasting dynamical systems but may struggle to capture long-range dependencies due to limited representational capacity. Conventional reservoir computing recurrently uses fixed reservoirs with hyperparameter sensitivity, while the next generation reservoir computing removes recurrence at the cost of rapidly growing feature dimensions. Here, we develop Kolmogorov-Arnold Reservoir Computing (KARC), which replaces reservoirs with explicit basis-function expansions inspired by the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem. We rigorously show that KARC is a lightweight design of Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs), preserving the potential expressive capacity of KANs while admitting efficient closed-form training of reservoir computing. At comparable cost, KARC outperforms existing reservoir computing methods on challenging benchmarks including partial differential equations. It can also be integrated with generative diffusion models for facilitating text-to-image generation. This work thus establishes a principled bridge between reservoir computing and KANs, yielding a unified framework for efficient dynamical forecasting and generative modeling.
Daniel Waxman, Dmitry Batenkov, John Feser +4stat.ML cs.LG eess.SP nlin.CD stat.ME
State-space models (SSMs) are the standard formalism for Bayesian treatment of dynamical systems, with natural applications in statistics, signal processing, and machine learning. Despite their importance in both theory and application, dynamical systems have proven difficult to incorporate in modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), making state-of-the-art methods less accessible to practitioners and introducing friction in following the "Bayesian workflow." We introduce dynestyx, a probabilistic programming library with first-class support for SSMs, including state-of-the-art methods in the estimation of both states and parameters. Through a single, unified interface, users may specify arbitrary priors for discrete-time or continuous-time dynamical systems, perform inference over mixed-effect data, and make state and parameter estimates with principled uncertainty quantification.
Filippo Zacchei, Ana Larrañaga, Attilio Frangi +2cs.LG math.DS
Data from simulations and experiments are rarely noise-free and often exhibit heterogeneous levels of fidelity. Measurement uncertainty may vary across repeated observations, sensing devices, or even within a single experiment. This work addresses the problem of discovering nonlinear dynamical systems from such inhomogeneous data. We extend the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems (SINDy) framework to account for variable noise levels by combining Ensemble SINDy and Weak SINDy within a weighted regression formulation derived from generalized least squares. A statistical justification for the weighting strategy is also provided. The methodology is validated on several benchmark systems, including ordinary and partial differential equations. In addition, we show the benefit of multi-fidelity integration for forecasting the dynamics of a double pendulum system. The results confirm that the proposed approach mitigates the adverse effects of heteroscedastic noise and that repeated, low-cost, low-quality measurements can improve model recovery, in some cases matching or outperforming reconstructions obtained using only high-fidelity data.
We propose a spectral learning method for stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems represented with embedded latent transfer operators in deep feature spaces. We instantiate the method as Deep Spectral Encoder (DSE), an operator-based latent state-space model in which a time-invariant neural encoder implements learnable nonlinear feature maps from observations, and these features define Markovian latent states whose temporal evolution and observation mapping are described by the transfer and observation operators, respectively. Functional canonical correlation analysis in a learnable Galerkin-projected feature space provides state coordinates from past and future observations, and the two linear operators are estimated on the state coordinates as ridge-regularized closed-form solutions that coincide with Galerkin projections of the associated covariance operators. On this representation, we generalize sequential Bayesian filtering and Koopman spectral mode decomposition in feature space. Experiments on several scenarios show stable and superior performance with sequential Bayesian filtering and dynamic mode decomposition baselines even under noise and partial observability.
Forecasting the evolution of complex dynamical systems remains a fundamentally challenging task, primarily due to pronounced nonlinear interactions, high-dimensional state spaces, and the concomitant requirement for rigorous and reliable uncertainty quantification. Contemporary reduced-order modelling (ROM) frameworks frequently exhibit inherent trade-offs among predictive accuracy, numerical stability, and interpretability, and thus often fail to achieve an optimal balance among these competing objectives. To address these limitations, we propose a framework for forecasting complex dynamical systems via a kernel autonomous ordinary differential equation approach based on Gaussian Processes and Quadratic Order Model Reduction. Our base method, the Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equations model, allows accurate short-term forecasting with uncertainty quantification, and it provably converges to the real autonomous equation in the smooth case. We integrate it with quadratic order reduced-order modelling and sphere projection for learning the latent dynamics efficiently while preserving stability. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our full model outperforms ROM forecasting methods such as Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition, Bagging Optimised Dynamic Mode Decomposition and Linear and Nonlinear Disambiguation Optimisation in terms of accuracy or computational costs. These results demonstrate the potential of the framework as a robust and stable tool for forecasting complex dynamical systems with rigorous uncertainty quantification.
Yusuf Sale, Christopher Bülte, Felix Czaja +2cs.LG stat.ML
The distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has received considerable attention in machine learning research, mainly in the context of supervised learning but also in other settings such as generative modeling. In this paper, we offer a machine learning perspective on uncertainty modeling for dynamical systems, which has been studied much less so far. In particular, we ask: what uncertainties do we need for dynamical systems? We discuss sources of uncertainty, clarify their nature (aleatoric or epistemic), and consider how the objectives of representing and quantifying uncertainty vary across different tasks.
Many multivariate dynamical systems are observed only through trajectories, leaving the mechanisms governing their joint dynamics hidden. Existing approaches can impose interpretable dynamics or learn flexible state transitions, yet the resulting interaction structure is typically either specified in advance or left implicit within the learned dynamics. We introduce MF-Net, a recurrent dynamical model that represents all variables in a shared field state and updates this state through a learned relation law. Each variable carries a field component, and these components evolve jointly through a learnable mechanical transition. Here, mechanical refers to the relation-to-motion organization of the transition, where learned relations shape state-dependent flows, field responses, and motion tendencies that move the field state forward. The resulting structure is part of the rollout itself: learned relations influence how the field moves, and the same internal quantities support both forecasting and structural readout. Across known-law interaction systems, chaotic benchmarks, real neural recordings, and ecological time series, MF-Net achieves competitive short- and medium-horizon forecasting while retaining inspectable structural readout. On the 40-dimensional Lorenz--96 testbed, MF-Net achieves an eight-step $R^2$ of $0.798\pm0.018$; across five seeds, its learned relation matrix recovers the local coupling support with a local/nonlocal strength ratio of $19.80\pm1.00$ and Precision@$K$ of $1.000\pm0.000$. MF-Net provides a structure-readable dynamical modeling framework in which learned relations are trained through forward evolution and, on real data, interpreted as functional predictive couplings under appropriate observational limits.
We study finite-sample change detection for one-dimensional noisy dynamical systems using partition-based empirical approximations of stationary behaviour. Given observations from an interval-valued process, we partition the state space, estimate a finite transition matrix from observed transitions between partition elements, and apply a small Doeblin-type regularisation to ensure a unique stationary distribution. From an initial reference segment, we compute a baseline empirical stationary distribution \(\widehatπ_{0,ρ}\). For each later sliding window, we compute \(\widehatπ_{t,ρ}\) and define the score \[ S_t=\|\widehatπ_{t,ρ}-\widehatπ_{0,ρ}\|_1. \] Large values of \(S_t\) indicate a change in stationary behaviour relative to the baseline. The statistic detects changes in invariant density or stationary law, but not all possible changes in transition dynamics. Under explicit assumptions on empirical transition concentration, finite-state stationary distribution stability, partition approximation, regularisation bias, and noise stability, we derive a finite-sample bound for the empirical stationary density. The bound separates sampling error, regularisation bias, partition approximation error, and noise bias. We then obtain a single-window false-alarm guarantee and a sufficient detection condition when the invariant density changes by more than the estimation error. We illustrate the method on synthetic noisy beta-map change-point experiments.
Many nonlinear iterative systems generate high-dimensional trajectories whose early behavior is informative but difficult to compare directly. This paper derives a fixed-dimensional F-transform coordinate representation for early trajectories of iterated Pearson correlation matrices. The construction is defined on the first five-point post-transient signal window, which is the shortest sampled window that simultaneously places the three symmetric fuzzy nodes at observed positions and supports a nondegenerate centered first-degree F-transform coefficient, thereby providing the earliest feasible local level--trend characterization within this sampled geometry. The representation combines two logarithmic observables of the post-transient dynamics: step size and contraction ratio. Applying this same four-coordinate construction to the step-size and contraction-ratio signals yields the eight-dimensional descriptor $Ψ=(v_1,v_2,v_3,s_2,u_1,u_2,u_3,r_2)$, with a common coordinate form across matrix sizes. For the fixed construction, $Ψ=M(q_2,\ldots,q_7)^{\top}$, $q_k=\logδ_k$, with $\operatorname{rank}M=6$. Thus, the descriptor is an injective, overcomplete representation of the six logged step sizes underlying the two channels. The representation is Lipschitz stable, and the centered first-degree coefficient recovers affine trends exactly. Convergence-length approximation is used as a downstream test of retained dynamical information. Across 22 matrix dimensions and 22,000 trajectories, repeated train--test evaluation shows predictive performance comparable to raw two-channel and statistical-summary representations. PCA shows that the first two principal components explain on average $84.47\%$ of the descriptor variance. Clustering reveals reproducible coarse organization, with the strongest mean silhouette at $k=2$ and high stability for smaller numbers of clusters.
Erik Lien Bolager, Boumediene Hamzi, Houman Owhadi +2math.DS cs.LG
Studying nonlinear dynamical systems through their state space behavior can be challenging, and one possible alternative is to analyze them via their associated Koopman operator. This turns the nonlinear problem into a linear, infinite-dimensional one. To approximate the operator in finite dimensions, extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) is a commonly used algorithm. It requires a finite list of functionals and a set of snapshots from the system to compute an approximation of the operator and its corresponding spectrum. Instead of choosing the list of functionals directly, it can be implicitly defined via kernels, a method known as kernel extended dynamic mode decomposition (kEDMD). However, one still needs to define the kernel and choose its parameter values. In this paper, we aim to streamline this process by extending dictionary learning for EDMD to kernel learning in kEDMD. By simplifying kEDMD we show how to perform gradient-based optimization over the learnable kernel parameters, and demonstrate that this method leads to useful kernels for the original kEDMD. The focus of our work is a method that takes a weighted list of kernels with randomly initialized values as input and outputs a list of kernels and parameter values suitable for approximating the Koopman operator of the underlying system. We demonstrate that unimportant kernels can be removed from the list by analyzing the weights in the weighted sum. We evaluate the method across several experiments, including the Duffing oscillator and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky PDE, showcasing the method's different strengths.