Nominal LoRA rank is a design parameter; calibrated spectral evidence is a separate inferential quantity. This article develops a finite-sample framework for inferring effective rank structure in public foundation-model adapters. The theoretical core is an exact chi-square divergence for the fixed-dimensional Gaussian rank-one reference experiment, with an unknown signal direction integrated under a rotation-invariant reference prior. The resulting series yields a computable finite-sample Le Cam bound at concrete layer sizes, an explicit remainder bound for numerical truncation, and the rectangular Baik-Ben Arous-Peche (BBP) limit. A compact-manifold Laplace expansion shows that finite-sample likelihood evidence also depends on leading spectral gaps through the factor $s_1^{|m-n|}\prod_{i\ge2}(s_1^2-s_i^2)$, motivating joint calibration of clustered singular values. Building on these results, we introduce an empirical-null workflow for PEFT LoRA adapters: factor reconstruction, Monte Carlo $p$-values, stagewise and block testing, and module-wise and corpus-level BH reporting. In an audit of 26 public adapters, 684 modules, six architecture families, and 31,770 public-checkpoint spectra rows, calibrated effective rank is typically much smaller than nominal rank and differs systematically from 95\% energy retention. A measured RoBERTa-RTE slice on $n=24$ examples illustrates the measurement path from calibrated ranks to task evaluation, without treating the slice as a utility study. The main empirical finding is that calibrated effective rank is usually far below nominal rank, and that energy retention and statistical surprise answer different questions.
Deep networks trained with label noise often learn clean structure before memorizing corrupted labels. We show that this transition leaves a spectral signature in the centered scatter of per-example last-layer gradients. Its effective rank transiently expands during memorization and contracts after corrupted labels are fit. We call this phenomenon Fisher Rank Inflation. Corrupted labels increase effective rank by injecting spectral mass into low-energy or previously unused eigendirections, increasing the entropy of the gradient spectrum. We derive a first-order leave-one-out attribution formula, identify conditions under which corrupted examples contribute more strongly than clean examples, and explain why attribution signals weaken once the normalized Fisher-gradient spectrum stabilizes. We test these predictions on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and CIFAR-10N using SmallCNN, ResNet18, and Vision Transformers. Across settings, Fisher effective rank exhibits a consistent inflation--collapse trajectory aligned with memorization. At peak-rank checkpoints, corrupted examples are enriched among the highest rank-contributing samples, with top-100 noisy fractions from \(69.2\%\) to \(96.2\%\) across five-seed synthetic-corruption experiments and \(94.4\%\pm1.9\%\) on CIFAR-10N. First-order spectral attribution closely matches exact leave-one-out contributions in convolutional models and remains enriched in the Vision Transformer. Peak effective rank increases monotonically with corruption severity, from \(28.88\pm1.95\) under clean training to \(97.09\pm1.78\) at \(60\%\) corruption. In several settings, the retrospectively identified onset of rank inflation precedes observable test degradation. These results establish Fisher Rank Inflation as a spectral signature connecting corrupted-example enrichment, corruption severity, and the transition from structure learning to memorization.
On modular arithmetic, a network's embedding keeps compressing for tens of thousands of steps after it has already generalized. Reading effective rank at the grokking transition overstates the converged value by 3-5x on an MLP, and by 1.3-1.5x on a transformer trained to convergence; on the MLP it also erases which cells compress at all. Compression lags the accuracy transition by an amount on the order of the time-to-grok, at least 10,000 steps, rather than coinciding with it. A one-variable ablation shows what sets the lag size: adding LayerNorm to an otherwise identical transformer moves the fraction of compression done by the grok step from 0.87 to 0.25, and a pre-registered control rules out scale invariance as the mechanism. We package this as an audit that separates onset from compression, flags censoring, excludes boundary cells that never fully generalize, and checks that the reference floor has plateaued, with an adversarial suite that caught a false-confidence bug in our own branch. A secondary, MLP-specific depth law linking norm budget to converged floor fails a generality test on a transformer and flips sign under free weight decay. Code and the toolkit are released.
Few-shot label acquisition lacks a label-free signal for when additional labels cease to improve accuracy: existing stopping criteria either require a held-out validation set (violating the few-shot premise) or rely on theoretically ungrounded heuristics, so we introduce the spectral saturation index $S(K)=\mathrm{erank}(\hatΣ_W^{(K)})/K$, the exponential spectral entropy of the pooled within-class covariance normalized by per-class support size $K$, which measures the exploration rate per label and falls below a fixed threshold $τ=0.02$ once the explored spectral subspace saturates and marginal accuracy gains vanish; across 49 real tasks (binary, 5-way, 10-way) and three frozen backbones (PCA-50, CLIP ViT-B/32, DINOv2 ViT-S/14), $S(K)$ correlates strongly with the marginal gain on doubling the support set ($ρ_{\text{pool}}=0.6366$, $p=2.9\times10^{-57}$, cluster-bootstrap 95\% CI $[0.551,0.720]$), a fixed $τ=0.02$ classifies stop/continue decisions with cluster-bootstrap $\mathrm{AUC}=0.787$ (95\% CI $[0.713,0.860]$) with high recall on meaningful gains ($ΔA>1\%$), and a partial correlation controlling for $\log K$ yields $ρ_{\text{partial}}=0.324$ ($p=1.65\times10^{-13}$), confirming $S(K)$ carries spectral information beyond shared $K$-dependence; theory predicts this from first principles, since the population effective rank sets the saturation scale $K_{\text{sat}}\approx\mathrm{erank}(Σ_W)/τ$, $τ=0.02$ sits at the boundary between the first and second descent (Nakkiran et al., 2021), and $O(1/K)$ bias in the sample effective rank explains the small-$K$ hump in $S(K)$; for unregularized linear probes ($C=\infty$), practitioners should halt when $S(K)<0.02$ (PCA-50, hard stop) or monitor $S(K)$ dropping from $\sim0.3\to0.05$ (foundation models, diminishing-returns signal), with computation costing $\sim1$ ms at $d=50$.