Mixed strategy equilibrium predicts i.i.d play: past actions should not help predict future decisions. Human players, however, systematically depart from this benchmark, and in O'Neill's zero sum card game, these departures can be predicted by black box sequence models such as LSTMs. This paper asks whether that predictive power can be achieved by transparent alternatives that also reveal the behavioural structure behind it. Using 84,060 decisions from 2,802 pairs, the analysis first benchmarks naive and behavioral models against interpretable machine learning and deep learning models, then evaluates the modified EWA specifications of prior work against these benchmarks and uses the LASSO diagnostics to motivate a further nested frequency tracking extension. The results show that repeat or avoid behavior, especially players' management of their own recent action histories, accounts for most of the interpretable and strategically exploitable signal, while frequency tracking adds little out of sample.
Clustered federated learning benefits from organizing heterogeneous participants into coalitions that train coalition-specific models, but such clustering is sustainable only if participants prefer their assigned coalition and the required transfers are affordable. We develop a transferable-surplus model separating learning benefit, system cost, participant cost, and monetary transfers; an allocation rule converts coalition surplus into hedonic preferences, and weak budget feasibility guarantees nonnegative retained coordinator surplus. For symmetric pairwise allocations the induced game is an exact potential game: a Nash-stable partition exists, every strict better-response process converges, and with destination consent accepted better responses reach an individually stable partition. We characterize feasibility of bounded pair incentives and verify the exponentially many budget constraints in polynomial oracle time when retained slack is submodular. Decomposing welfare into participant potential and retained slack yields additive and multiplicative price-of-stability guarantees, the latter asymptotically tight; exact balance gives welfare-optimal stability only on the pairwise-representable class, and budget feasibility alone permits unbounded welfare loss. Global potential maximization equals weighted maximum-agreement correlation clustering, and approximation followed by stabilization satisfies an end-to-end welfare bound governed by retained slack and negative-edge mass, attained by an explicit construction. In a preregistered five-seed CIFAR-10 study the mechanism reaches the certified estimated-table welfare optimum on every primary instance, equal-surplus sharing has no Nash-stable outcome on three, and pairwise validation gain gives far more reliable pair signs than gradient alignment.
On a platform with many sellers, should a pricing algorithm explicitly model competitors' prices when learning demand? Classical learning arguments suggest an affirmative answer: ignoring competitors induces model misspecification and inefficiency. In contrast, recent work on algorithmic collusion suggests that strategic obliviousness -- deliberately ignoring competitor prices -- may facilitate collusive outcomes and improve profits. We study this modeling choice in a stylized competitive market with unknown noisy demand, in which multiple sellers repeatedly set prices and estimate demand via iterated least squares, and either incorporate competitors' prices into their demand models (informed) or ignore them (oblivious). We first show that, relative to a monopolist, an oblivious seller in a competitive market must explore more aggressively to compensate for the loss of dynamic competitor information. Building on this insight, we characterize market dynamics when all sellers are oblivious and show that prices converge to the competitive outcome under sufficient exploration, while a continuum of pseudo-equilibria arises when exploration decays. Analyzing the resulting price trajectories, we uncover an excursion phenomenon that gives rise to transient collusive patterns that dissipate as learning progresses. In markets with both oblivious and informed sellers, the informed strictly out-earn the oblivious. Read as a strategy game, the modeling choice has a unique Nash equilibrium: the all-informed market, in which prices converge to the competitive outcome efficiently. Overall, our results indicate that collusive patterns are not robust and are not sustained by oblivious modeling; therefore, incorporating competitor information, together with sufficient price exploration, remains a reliable strategy for sellers in competitive markets.
Guangyi Zhang, Lutz Oettershagen, Lixu Wang +1cs.LG cs.DS
Data valuation, the task of quantifying the contribution of individual data points to model performance, has emerged as a fundamental challenge in machine learning. Game-theoretic approaches, such as the Banzhaf value, offer principled frameworks for fair data valuation; however, they suffer from exponential computational complexity. We address this challenge by developing efficient algorithms specifically tailored for computing Banzhaf values in $k$-nearest neighbor ($k$NN) classifiers. We first establish the theoretical hardness of the problem by proving that it is \#P-hard. Despite this intractability, we exploit the locality properties of $k$NN classifiers to develop practical exact algorithms. Our main contribution is a dynamic programming framework that achieves significant computational improvements: we present a pseudo-polynomial algorithm with $O(Wkn^2)$ time complexity for weighted $k$NN classifiers, where $W$ is the maximum sum of top-$k$ weights, and a specialized algorithm for unweighted $k$NN that achieves $O(nk^2)$ time complexity, that is, linear in the number of data points. We also offer efficient Monte Carlo estimation methods. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the practical efficiency of our approach and its effectiveness in data valuation applications.