Imputation Meets Clustering: Exploiting Latent Subgroup Structure for Missing Data Recovery

Missing data is prevalent in practical applications, making effective imputation an essential preprocessing step for downstream analysis. Real-world datasets often exhibit complex latent structures composed of multiple subgroups with distinct distributions. However, existing methods often overlook such population heterogeneity. Without explicit structural guidance, these methods tend to produce generic estimates that blur subgroup boundaries and lack instance-level fidelity. While incorporating subgroup information offers a remedy, it faces a circular dependency: reliable subgroup identification requires complete data, while data completion is the imputation objective itself. To resolve this, we propose CAGI (Cluster-Aware Generative Imputation), a framework that reformulates clustering and imputation as a mutually reinforcing co-optimization process. CAGI employs a ``Partition-Guide-Restore'' strategy where dynamic cluster assignments act as local priors to condition a Generative Adversarial Network. An iterative feedback loop is established to progressively refine both cluster structures and imputed values toward faithful subgroup distributions. To ensure distributional stability, CAGI further employs a multi-level optimization objective combining instance-level reconstruction with distribution-level regularization. Extensive experiments on 14 benchmark datasets with 15 representative baselines demonstrate the superiority of CAGI. The source code is available at: https://github.com/supercocachii/CAGI

Effective Covariance Dynamics in Solvable High-Dimensional GANs

We study a solvable high-dimensional model of generative adversarial network (GAN) training in which a linear generator learns a low-dimensional subspace from data with structured latent covariance. Prior solvable GAN analyses assume unconditional signals with diagonal latent covariance; we extend the multi-feature discriminator setting to class-dependent, correlated, and non-zero-mean latent structure. For the quadratic energy discriminator, all such heterogeneity enters the dynamics through a probability-weighted effective second moment. We prove that the stochastic microscopic training process converges, in the high-dimensional limit, to deterministic ordinary differential equations governed by this effective covariance. In the matched-covariance specialization, the stability analysis yields a mode-wise solvable interval determined by the learning rates and noise level: learning begins when the leading effective eigenvalue crosses the lower threshold, while full recovery requires all relevant effective modes to remain within the interval. This reveals a signal-boosting mechanism: low-rank correlations can lift weak directions above the learnability threshold, whereas overly strong correlations destabilize recovery. Numerical simulations validate the ODE, phase boundary, and boosting mechanism. Experiments on MNIST, FashionMNIST, and CIFAR-10 further show that informed generator covariance improves alignment with the data-driven reference subspace.

Generative Predictive Distributions for Time Series

We propose a flexible framework for modeling the predictive distributions of nonlinear, possibly multivariate time series. Our approach expresses a general predictive distribution in an appropriate generative representation that is based on a folklore result from measure theoretic probability. This representation provides a direct simulation-based approximation to the predictive distribution, enabling straightforward computation of forecasts for the conditional mean and variance, fan charts, value at risk, expected shortfall, joint tail risks, and other quantities of interest. We estimate this generative representation using a version of conditional generative adversarial networks and provide a formal statistical analysis of estimation under weak temporal dependence. Specifically, estimation is expressed as a particular minimax problem and we establish consistency of its approximate solutions in Hausdorff distance. The empirical relevance of the approach is illustrated using applications to equity returns, realized variance, and realized covariances. The proposed method is also computationally manageable, with estimation in our applications taking approximately one minute on a standard laptop.