B2B Customer Conversion Prediction: A Document Representation, Graph Theory, and CatBoost Driven Methodology

In the one-time selling B2B context, the buying cycle may last months or even years. During the long process, targeting customers that have a high potential to make purchases and recommending personalized campaigns accordingly are important for effective marketing. For this goal, we study the following problems, B2B customer data aggregation, customer feature generation, and prediction of whether a B2B customer would show interest in making a purchase (i.e., prediction of conversion into sales funnel). We propose an algorithm to aggregate individual contacts to the B2B customer level based on multiple keys. For non-standardized keys such as company names, we propose a novel architecture to cluster them in a domain encompassing irregularities such as spelling mistakes and spelling variants. We then define and generate a set of features and apply the CatBoost model for customer conversion prediction. Our framework achieves 91\% prediction accuracy. Based on the prediction results and analysis of the model, we then discuss personalized campaign recommendations to foster conversion.

Density-aware Hierarchical Clustering Based on Element-Categorized Connection Subgraphs

Clustering is a fundamental data mining technique for pattern recognition through unsupervised learning. Among various clustering methods, hierarchical clustering, density-based clustering, and graph clustering stand out as representative approaches. For hierarchical clustering, it can be categorized into agglomerative and divisive modes to construct clusters in a recursive manner. The key aspect of both modes is the calculation of inter-cluster similarity, which determines whether to merge the sub-clusters into one cluster or divide a current cluster into sub-clusters. Traditionally, the similarity is derived from pairwise distances, often overlooking density variations and structural connectivity in graphs. To address this, we propose a density-aware hierarchical clustering method based on element-categorized connection subgraphs (DHC-ECS), which effectively integrates the hierarchical clustering, density-based clustering, and graph clustering. Particularly, a novel inter-cluster similarity metric is introduced that considers not only distances but also the element categorization in the KNN connection subgraphs, kernel density estimation, and local connectivity within sub-clusters. Extensive evaluations on heterogeneous benchmark datasets demonstrate that DHC-ECS exhibits superior overall performance in terms of clustering accuracy and parameter robustness compared with the baseline methods (including AChameleon, RNN-DBSCAN, McDPC, and G-RMS). The work indicates the great potential of the proposed clustering algorithm for low-dimensional datasets by leveraging local density and graph-structured connectivity (i.e., the duality of vertices and edges), as well as the possibility to determine an intrinsic threshold, reducing the reliance on manual parameter tuning.

Hierarchical $\mathcal{F}$-Clustering: Approximation and Hardness of Clustering into Trees and Bounded Diameter Graphs

Consider the following variation on the Hierarchical Clustering problem: Usually, while building a hierarchical clustering, one recursively partitions the data until each cluster becomes a singleton. We relax the halting condition of the recursive process to stop whenever the remaining cluster is a graph belonging to a class $\mathcal{F}$. We call this problem Hierarchical $\mathcal{F}$-Clustering and we measure the quality of any solution using adapted Dasgupta's clustering objective. We study two natural choices of $\mathcal{F}$: trees and graphs of bounded diameter. We present the first polynomial time $\mathcal{O}(\log n\cdot\log\log n)$ and $\mathcal{O}(\log n)$-approximation algorithms for clustering into trees and bounded diameter graphs respectively. Our main technical contribution is a framework for approximating such problems based on linear programming. In fact, we characterize graphs classes $\mathcal{F}$ for which our approach can be applied and show that it includes both trees and bounded diameter graphs. However, our ideas are not limited to them and might be useful for other structures as well. Broadly speaking, our framework applies whenever the corresponding flat clustering problem, which we call $p_{\mathcal{F}}$-Partitioning, admits a natural ILP formulation together with a rounding procedure with provable approximation guarantees. Intuitively, given a set of vertices called terminals, the problem is to find an edge set whose removal results in satisfying certain vertex-dependent structural predicate for each terminal. We then use these ingredients to build clustering trees with the aforementioned approximation guarantees. To complement these results, we show that both Hierarchical Clustering into trees and into bounded diameter graphs cannot be approximated within any constant factor under the Small Set Expansion Hypothesis.

A Nonmonotone Gradient-Based Algorithm for Symmetric Nonnegative Matrix Factorization and Graph Clustering

Symmetric nonnegative matrix factorization (Symmetric NMF) approximates a matrix as $WW^T$ with nonnegative rectangular factor $W$. It has broad applications in graph clustering and machine learning. In contrast to the NMF, projected gradient methods for the symmetric problem had been associated with slow convergence. To address this, we introduce SNMPBB, the first adaptation of nonmonotone projected Barzilai-Borwein methods to Symmetric NMF, demonstrating that gradient algorithms are significantly more effective than previously understood. We further extend SNMPBB to graph clustering using the graph Laplacian regularization (Graph-SNMPBB) and to large problems with low-rank approximations (LAI-SNMPBB). For all variants we prove global convergence to first-order stationary points and also that Barzilai-Borwein curvature information is preserved with randomized approximations. On synthetic data, SNMPBB achieves 6 times speedup over the alternative SymANLS for similar residuals, with advantages growing at higher ranks. Across six real-world clustering benchmarks, Graph-SNMPBB matches or exceeds SymANLS accuracy. Lastly, LAI-SNMPBB outperforms state-of-the-art LAI-SymPGNCG on 34 SuiteSparse matrices in both runtime and residual quality.