A Deep Latent Variable Framework for Jointly Modeling Missingness, Measurement Error, and Heterogeneity

Missing data, measurement error, and population heterogeneity are pervasive challenges in analyzing data arising from modern observational studies and machine learning applications. Although these problems frequently coexist and interact, they are often treated separately in existing works. We propose a unified probabilistic framework that jointly addresses these issues utilizing deep latent variable representation. The proposed method integrates a novel hierarchical tree-routed variational autoencoder with pattern-aware latent representations and calibration-based denoising. The framework accommodates missing data mechanisms, including MCAR, MAR, and MNAR, while simultaneously learning subgroup-specific and globally shared latent structure. The introduced reconvergent routing mechanism enables selective parameters to be shared across related subpopulations, which offers flexibility as well as improved statistical efficiency. Simulation studies demonstrate substantial improvements over existing deep generative imputation approaches under complex heterogeneous missingness and measurement-error settings. The proposed framework provides a principled approach for learning from noisy and incomplete data in modern healthcare and other high-dimensional applications.

Toward Machine Learning with the Unit as a Primitive: Learning from Unit-Linked Events

Machine learning is usually formalized through samples, while the persistent individual to which multiple observed or possible events refer often remains implicit. We propose the \emph{unit} as an explicit primitive at the level of task semantics. A learning task first declares a population of persistent referents and a sameness criterion; the realized value $u$ denotes the selected referent. Supervised learning is the main formal specialization. Its semantic object is a family of unit-conditioned response laws. Homogeneity is the special case in which those laws coincide; a sample-only conditional is silent as to whether the world is homogeneous or the observed law is only the marginal of a heterogeneous family. What is learned from data is a pair $(T_φ,R_θ)$: a tokenizer that produces a contextual unit token and one shared response-law form that reads it. The structured class takes that form to be a simple relation in the token; a linear predictor is the running instance. The token is the learner-side representation through which the task-side unit affects prediction, while a learner specification that omits unit information is unit-insensitive; homogeneity remains a property of the world-side response family. When identity is unresolved, the world-side law mixes unit-conditioned targets, while the learner composes its shared form with a token. A trusted resolver may fix the unit and supply a lookup token; otherwise \emph{unit abduction} forms a token of the same type from factual evidence. Unlinked single-row observations can fail to distinguish a heterogeneous unit world from a homogeneous pooled world; trusted same-unit pairs separate a restricted witness. The formal results concern this supervised specialization.

Coordination on a Budget: Federated Active Learning with Few Labels

Federated Active Learning (FAL) addresses the dual challenges of data privacy and label scarcity, where the absence of a global data view introduces additional hurdles for coordinated query selection. We study cross-silo FAL in the low-budget regime, where annotation decisions are most critical. We characterize, both theoretically and empirically, a heterogeneity reversal: in low-budget settings, homogeneous (IID) data requires stronger coordination to avoid redundant queries, whereas heterogeneous data naturally promotes diversity; this trend reverses at higher budgets. Thus, in contrast to the standard federated learning (FL) narrative where heterogeneity is a primary challenge, we show that IID settings are more challenging for query selection in FAL. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new FAL framework that utilizes federated representation learning to align client data in a shared embedding space. This enables the server to perform globally coordinated active selection over optionally obfuscated client embeddings, while annotation remains local to each client. Although our framework operates in the more challenging low-budget regime, it achieves performance that surpasses existing FAL methods even when they are given substantially larger annotation budgets, demonstrating the value of centralized coordination under privacy constraints.

Tabular Foundation Models for Discrete Choice Estimation

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) generate predictions on structured data via in-context learning, without task-specific estimation. We ask whether TFMs can be effectively applied to discrete choice, a central demand estimation framework in marketing and operations, and find that directly applying TFMs yields limited performance. The gap is structural: TFMs assume row-independent observations, whereas discrete choice is inherently set-valued and subject to persistent consumer preference heterogeneity. We propose a reformulation that encodes both choice-set dependence and individual heterogeneity within a row-based learning framework. Evaluated on a yogurt scanner panel, individual-level heterogeneity encoding is the dominant driver of predictive accuracy. The best reformulation outperforms hierarchical Bayesian estimation on both holdout log-likelihood and hit rate, running 16 times faster, a practical advantage for large-scale demand estimation. The advantage is largest in the medium-data regime (10--40 purchase occasions per consumer), where parametric Bayesian shrinkage most distorts estimates for atypical consumers. Fine-tuning on population choice data provides additional gains for consumers with shallow purchase histories, where in-context learning has limited individual-specific signal to condition on. These results establish a principled approach for applying foundation models to consumer choice problems more broadly.

FedSPM: Routing-Enabled Federated Learning under Dual Heterogeneity via Semiparametric Mixture

Routing-prediction federated learning has emerged as a new paradigm that reframes inter-client heterogeneity as a resource for system-level intelligence: at inference time, the server routes each external query to the best-matched client for prediction. Existing approaches, however, typically treat each client as internally homogeneous, overlooking latent subpopulations within local data. For example, patients with the same diagnosis at one hospital may exhibit morphologically distinct disease subtypes. The coexistence of inter-client and intra-client heterogeneity, which we call dual heterogeneity, can impair both routing and prediction. To address this challenge, we propose FedSPM, a routing-enabled semiparametric mixture framework that represents each client using client-specific latent components. Each component combines a predictive distribution for classification with a feature distribution for routing. To flexibly model feature distributions while effectively sharing information across clients, FedSPM models their density ratios relative to a common nonparametric measure estimated via empirical likelihood. We develop a federated expectation-maximization algorithm that optimizes a tractable surrogate and prove convergence of the exact profiled objective at the standard $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ rate when the surrogate errors are properly controlled. Experiments on controlled benchmarks and real-world medical data demonstrate consistent improvements in routing and prediction under dual heterogeneity. Code is available at https://github.com/zijianwang0510/FedSPM.