Minimax bounds for watermarked and masked recursive discrete distribution estimation

Watermarking has been proposed as a way to identify synthetic samples in estimation settings where no metadata is available to distinguish them from real samples, but its precise effects remain unexplored. In the absence of a distinguishing mechanism, it has been shown that adding synthetic samples significantly reduces the marginal efficacy of new real samples. In this work, we study the minimax loss of such recursive discrete distribution estimation in the presence of watermarks in contrast to the unassisted and oracle-assisted losses. When the fraction of real samples vanishes asymptotically, we provide a lower bound that shows that it is impossible to improve performance by adding watermarks unless the false negative rate of detection also vanishes. Additionally, we show that in most regimes, the worst-case losses of a sequence of simple deterministic estimators match the corresponding lower bounds up to constants. Finally, we propose masking, a randomization procedure that narrows the gap in the remaining regimes to a Jensen gap. We conjecture that a tighter lower bound argument can close this gap.

Uniform Statistical Convergence of Empirical Sinkhorn Potentials with Exponential and Polynomial Dependence on the Regularization Parameter

We study the empirical Sinkhorn estimator of the entropic optimal transport potentials under the uniform loss. Since the potentials are only unique up to additive constants, we measure the error using the quotient supremum norm, defined as $d_\infty([u],[v]) = \inf_{a\in\mathbb{R}}\|u-v-a\|_\infty$. For a fixed regularization parameter $\varepsilon>0$, we establish a non-asymptotic statistical rate of $n^{-1/2}$. This is achieved by combining the Birkhoff-Hopf contraction theorem with entropy bounds on normalized kernel sections. However, the constant in this bound grows exponentially with $1/ε$. To improve this, we isolate geometric conditions under which the empirical estimator maintains the $n^{-1/2}$ rate but features polynomial dependence on $1/\varepsilon$. The key requirement is a polynomial residual-stability estimate for the population Sinkhorn map. We provide sufficient criteria for this, including a polynomial contraction property and a local inverse estimate. Furthermore, we introduce two rigorously verifiable model classes an $\varepsilon$-weak residual-interaction class obtained after separable centering and another based on connected tight-edge graphs for fixed discrete costs where the polynomial rate is guaranteed without relying on abstract resolvent assumptions. Finally, we establish matching minimax lower bounds demonstrating that the $\varepsilon n^{-1/2}$ rate cannot be uniformly improved in the bounded-interaction regime.

How Many Samples Are Needed to Determine Causal Direction? Sharp Minimax Bounds for Bivariate LiNGAM

We study how many observations are needed to determine the causal direction between two linearly related variables. Classical LiNGAM theory shows that independent non-Gaussian disturbances identify the direction, but does not quantify the difficulty when the causal effect is weak or the disturbances are nearly Gaussian. Let $β$ bound the absolute structural coefficient from below, let $ν$ measure each standardized disturbance's distance from Gaussianity, and let the disturbance scales lie in $[\underlineσ,\overlineσ]$. We prove the sharp local minimax law \[ N_2^\star(β,ν,δ) \asymp \frac{\log(1/δ)} {d_β^2+β^2ν^2}, \qquad d_β= \left[β^2- \left(1-\frac{\underlineσ^2}{\overlineσ^2}\right)\right]_+. \] Previous theory established population identifiability or assumed a fixed separation between the two directions. By contrast, we establish the sharp sample complexity as a joint function of edge strength, distance from Gaussianity, and scale uncertainty, and characterize when identification comes from non-Gaussian dependence or from covariance alone. The proof was independently generated with GPT-5.6 Sol in Codex's Ultra mode during a two-hour session. The human author supplied the prompt and was responsible only forchecking the proof and revising and polishing the manuscript.

Tensor-normal maximum likelihood estimation at the operator-norm sample threshold

Let $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ be independent Gaussian tensors in $\mathbb{R}^{d_1}\otimes\cdots\otimes\mathbb{R}^{d_k}$ whose covariance is a Kronecker product of $k$ unknown positive-definite factors, and put $D=\prod_{a=1}^k d_a$ and $d_{\max}=\max_a d_a$. A recent result of Franks et al. (2026) established condition-number-free nonasymptotic guarantees for the tensor-normal maximum likelihood estimator under the sample threshold $nD\gtrsim k^2 d_{\max}^3$. They asked whether the cubic dependence on $d_{\max}$ could be replaced by the operator-norm scale $d_{\max}^2$. We answer this question affirmatively. We prove that, for $t\geq 1$, the maximum likelihood estimator exists uniquely with high probability whenever $nD\geq Ck^2 d_{\max}^2 t^2$, and satisfies $d_{\mathrm{FR}}(\widehatΘ,Θ)\leq Ct\sqrt{k}\,d_{\max}/\sqrt{n}$ and $d_{\mathrm{FR}}(\widehatΘ_a,Θ_a)\leq Ct\sqrt{k d_a}\,d_{\max}/\sqrt{nD}$. For every mode of largest dimension, we also obtain the sharp Thompson bound $d_{\mathrm{op}}(\widehatΘ_a,Θ_a)\leq Ct\,d_{\max}/\sqrt{nD}$. No sparsity, condition-number bound or warm start is assumed. For fixed $k$, the threshold has the information-theoretically optimal dependence on $d_{\max}$, and the displayed rates for the full precision and the largest factor match Gaussian minimax lower bounds up to a factor $\sqrt{k}$. The proof extends a random Gram bound for local group-orbit directions to the full local Lie algebra, transports it to a fixed Thompson ball by exact conjugation, and combines sensitivity of a constrained maximum likelihood estimator with an equivariant Kirszbraun extension and Gaussian concentration. This removes the Frobenius-to-operator loss responsible for the previous extra factor $d_{\max}$ and resolves the explicit open problem posed in the earlier work.

Tight Sample Complexity for Low-Rank Adaptation: Matching Bounds and Rank Selection

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has become the standard mechanism for fine-tuning large pretrained models, yet its statistical properties remain only partially understood. Existing generalization results provide upper bounds of the form O~(sqrt(rd/n)) or O~(rd/n), but a matching lower bound is missing, and the question of how to choose the LoRA rank r has no formal answer. Both gaps are closed here. A local Rademacher argument establishes an upper bound of O~(rd/n) on the excess risk of the empirical risk minimizer over rank-r LoRA, whenever the target adaptation has rank at most r. A matching minimax lower bound of Omega(rd/n) is then proved via a Fano-type packing of the rank-r subspace of R^{d x d}; the bound applies to any estimator whose output lies in the rank-r LoRA class. Combining the two yields a rank-selection dichotomy. For the constrained empirical risk minimizer, the optimal rank equals the intrinsic rank r*, and over-ranking strictly hurts. For adaptive estimators of the nuclear-norm-then-truncate type, over-ranking is harmless and the rate saturates at Theta~(r* d / n) regardless of r. Taken together, the three results characterize the statistical complexity of LoRA fine-tuning within the well-specified locally quadratic regime, and identify the empirically observed over-parameterization penalty as a property of unregularized empirical risk minimization rather than of the LoRA class itself. Predictions of the theory are verified on a synthetic trace-regression benchmark and on real LoRA fine-tuning across three (model, task) configurations covering DistilBERT and RoBERTa on SST-2 and MRPC. All configurations exhibit the predicted U-shape in validation loss, with two showing statistically significant loss inflation at large ranks (paired permutation p = 0.016).

Minimax Lower Bounds of Kernel Discrepancy Estimation: MMD, HSIC, KSD

Over the past 20 years, kernel discrepancies have been leveraged as a highly powerful tool for quantifying the disagreement of distributions, with numerous successful applications in two-sample, goodness-of-fit, and independence testing, among others. Their fastest estimators are known to converge at a parametric rate---$n^{-1/2}$---under mild conditions. While this rate is known to be minimax optimal on $\mathbb R^d$ under strict assumptions with bounded kernels, little is known about its optimality beyond the finite-dimensional Euclidean setting with unbounded kernels. In this work, we prove that the minimax lower bound of estimation of the most popular kernel discrepancies (maximum mean discrepancy, Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion and kernel Stein discrepancy; MMD, HSIC, KSD) is $n^{-1/2}$ on general topological spaces, and under mild assumptions on the kernel; the same rates are shown (as corollaries) to hold for the estimation of the mean embedding and the centered cross-covariance operator. Our results settle the question of optimal estimation of these kernel discrepancies.

Exponential-Family Tensor Completion via Nonconvex Dual Total-Variation Regularization

With the emergence of various tensor data, tensor completion from partial measurements has attracted widespread attention in data science and signal processing. Total Variation (TV) has been widely used as an effective regularization technique for tensor completion; however, theoretical studies on TV regularization in this context remain limited. In this work, we present a rigorous theoretical analysis of TV regularization for tensor completion. Specifically, we consider tensor completion under exponential-family noise, which generalizes the standard settings such as Gaussian and Poisson tensor completion. To handle exponential-family tensor completion, we propose a family of dual-TV (DTV) regularizers based on the transformed L1 function, which simultaneously capture sparsity and low-rank structures in the gradient tensor. Moreover, we establish the theoretical upper bounds on the recovery error of the proposed estimator. In certain cases, these upper bounds can attain the convergence order of $\mathcal{O}\big( n_3 r_t\big(\max_{k} s_k^2\big) \log\big((n_1+n_2)n_3\big) /n \big)$, and the minimax lower bound analysis is further presented to show that the upper-bounds can approach the lower bound with the gap of order $\mathcal{O}(\max_k s_k^2/max(n_1, n_2))$ up to a logarithmic factor. Finally, multiple groups of experiments on synthetic, image and video tensor data sets are conducted to support our theoretical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

When Does Synthetic Data Augmentation Improve Score-Based Imbalanced Classification?

Synthetic data augmentation is widely used to mitigate class imbalance, but its theoretical effects on score-based classification remain poorly understood. This paper develops a framework for characterizing when synthetic minority augmentation can improve threshold-integrated and threshold-optimized metrics, including AUROC, AUPRC, best-threshold balanced accuracy, and best-threshold \(\F_1\) score. We separate the effect of augmentation into two components: a change in effective class weighting and a discrepancy between the synthetic and true minority distributions. Under well-specified score models, the raw estimator already targets the likelihood-ratio ordering, which is population-optimal for the metrics considered. Consequently, augmentation cannot provide a fundamental population-level improvement beyond possible finite-sample variance reduction, and may introduce additional bias through synthetic distributional error. We further establish minimax lower bounds showing that the raw estimator already achieves the optimal metric-regret rate in the well-specified regime. Under misspecification, however, augmentation can play a qualitatively different role: by changing the effective class balance, it can alter the restricted-class projection and correct ranking errors induced by the raw imbalanced objective. We provide explicit improvement bounds quantifying the roles of approximation error, finite-sample estimation error, and synthetic distributional error. Simulation studies corroborate the theory, demonstrating limited gains under well-specification and nontrivial but nonmonotone improvements under misspecification.

Tight $L_\infty$ Sample Complexity for Low-Degree and Sparse Boolean Polynomials

Motivated by the optimization of bounded binary black-box functions, we study the problem of learning polynomial surrogates over the Boolean hypercube. To ensure that optimizing the surrogate yields good solutions for the underlying objective, we require uniform $L_\infty$-error guarantees rather than the usual $L_2$-type guarantees. We characterize the minimax sample complexity of uniform estimation under subgaussian noise for two classes of bounded polynomials. First, for polynomials of degree at most $d$ on $n$ variables, the sample complexity scales as $n^{d+1}$. Second, for $s$-sparse Fourier-Walsh polynomials with $s \leq n$, it scales as $ns^2$. These rates differ structurally from the noiseless setting, where uniform exact recovery scales as $n^d$ and $ns$, respectively. Our lower bounds hold even for arbitrary adaptive learners, showing that the additional factors are intrinsic to the noisy cases. Standard Fourier-analysis tools for the $L_2$-norm do not naturally extend to the $L_\infty$-setting in a way that yields uniform guarantees. Our proofs overcome this difficulty by relying on suitably chosen auxiliary norms that serve as proxies for controlling the $L_\infty$-error. Together, our results provide a tight characterization of the sample complexity of learning optimization-safe polynomial surrogates.

A Complexity Measure for Active Learning in Multi-group Mean Estimation

We study a \emph{max-risk} objective for active learning in a multi-group mean estimation $d$-armed bandits: a learner adaptively allocates a budget of $T$ samples across $d$ groups to minimize the worst-case uncertainty index $\max_{k\in[d]}σ_k^2/n_k$, where $σ_k$ is the standard deviation of the distribution of arm $d$, and $n_k$ is the number of times arm $d$ is sampled. We develop a local minimax framework and prove the first general lower bound for this objective, valid for any finite-variance hypothesis class. The bound separates difficulty into three orthogonal factors: a \emph{budget} term, a \emph{heteroscedasticity} index measuring how unevenly the uncertainty is spread across arms, and a model-dependent complexity measure, the \emph{Variance Local Curvature} ($\mathrm{VLC}$), which captures how much information a local change of variance creates inside the hypothesis class. For smooth classes, the $\mathrm{VLC}$ is a reparametrization of a variance--Fisher information, with closed-form values for common families. Benchmarking against the strongest available upper bound shows near-optimality up to logarithmic factors in broad regimes, and pinpoints a systematic gap in highly heterogeneous instances. Our proof introduces two key ingredients: a loss-induced $\ell_1$ geometry on the decision space, and a representation-based instance generator that reduces hard-instance construction to an explicit random matrix calculation.

Information-Theoretic Bounds for Sparse Covariance Estimation in the Vertical-Split Distributed Model

We study the minimax estimation error for distributed covariance matrix estimation in the vertical-split (feature-split) setting, where two agents each observe different coordinates of $m$ i.i.d. sub-Gaussian samples and communicate a limited number of bits to a central server. While Rahmani et al. [2025] established nearly tight bounds for dense (unstructured) cross-covariance matrices, we investigate whether imposing elementwise $s$-sparsity on the cross-covariance $C_{21}$ can reduce the required communication and sample complexity. In contrast to the horizontal-split setting, where Braverman et al. [2016] showed that sparsity does not reduce communication cost for mean estimation, we prove that sparsity does help for cross-covariance estimation in the vertical split. Specifically, we establish minimax lower bounds showing that the communication budget per agent scales as $B_k = Ω(σ^4 d_k\, s' \log(d_1 d_2/s')/\varepsilon^2)$ and the sample complexity for cross-covariance estimation as $m = Ω(σ^4\, s' \log(d_1 d_2/s')/\varepsilon^2)$, where $s' = s \wedge d_{\min}$. For the $1$-sparse case, this yields an exponential improvement from $d_1 d_2$ to $\log(d_1 d_2)$ compared to the dense rate. Our lower bounds are established via Fano's method with an explicit sparse packing using a Varshamov--Gilbert-type argument for signed partial permutation matrices combined with the Conditional Strong Data Processing Inequality of Rahmani et al. [2025]. We show the bounds are tight with a matching achievable scheme, based on covering-net quantization and entry-wise hard thresholding, that attains the $s$-sparse lower bound up to polylogarithmic factors.