Persistent Cross Entropy

Persistent entropy is the Shannon entropy of a persistence-based probability measure defined on a persistence diagram. However, its cross-entropy version is not naturally defined because two persistence diagrams generally have different event spaces. To bridge these event spaces, we combine a similarity function with persistence weighting to define an induced probability. The induced probability reflects information from one diagram on the event space of the other diagram and assigns unexplained probability mass to the unexplained event. Using the induced probability, we extend cross entropy to persistence diagrams, called persistent cross entropy (PCE). We establish the main properties of both the induced probability and PCE and prove stability theorems for both. Through three numerical studies, we show that PCE distinguishes diagrams with the same persistent entropy, separates causal directions in dynamical systems without constructing a joint persistent diagram, and can be used as a directional topology loss for knowledge distillation.

Topological Simplification in Predictive Coding Networks

We study the topology of learned representations in predictive coding networks (PCNs), a neuro-inspired bidirectional architecture, using a quantitative layer-wise persistent homology analysis. We train well-performing PCNs on a synthetic classification dataset ($\geq 99.9\%$ test accuracy) and on MNIST ($\geq 95\%$ test accuracy), and measure how topological features change across layers for different architectures and activation functions. We find that smaller PCNs collapse connected components across layers earlier than larger models (Spearman $\unicode{x1D70C} \in [0.72, 0.79]$ across activations), with model size measured as the sum of hidden-layer widths. We also observe a strong negative correlation ($\unicode{x1D70C} = -0.58$) between the depth at which simplification occurs and reconstruction error; i.e., architectures that simplify later reconstruct better. Finally, a seed-level bootstrap comparison across architectures and activations shows that PCNs consistently collapse connected components later than matched MLPs, with an average difference of $3.6$ layers. These results suggest that persistent homology offers a useful quantitative lens on the compression--reconstruction tradeoff in PCNs, and that both model capacity and the recurrent, bidirectional dynamics of predictive coding inference shape when this tradeoff is resolved across layers.

Topological Data Analysis and Graph-Theoretic Approaches for Tennis Match Prediction

We present two approaches for predicting tennis match outcomes using topological data analysis and graph theory on ATP singles matches from 2000-2025. The first method applies lower-star filtration to player competitive networks, extracting topological features through persistent homology using four summary methods (VAB, HNAV, HWNAV, OW-HNPV) combined with Modified Band Depth analysis. Algorithmic optimizations including ego graph approximations and triangle elimination enable analysis of about 66k matches. Our Random Forest model achieves 66.2% accuracy (AUC = 0.719) using topological, graph-theoretic, and ranking features. Feature importance analysis reveals that rankings contribute 36.3%, centralities 25.5%, and TDA features 24.0%, with topological features providing complementary signal. When rankings are unavailable, the topology-only model maintains 63.56% accuracy, demonstrating that network-derived features alone capture meaningful competitive structure. The second method uses a modified Katz similarity index with temporal edge weighting, achieving 62.48% accuracy on held-out test data. This work represents the first application of lower-star filtration to tennis prediction, provides systematic comparison of four topological summary methods in sports analytics, and demonstrates that TDA can achieve above-chance prediction using network topology alone while providing additional value when combined with traditional features.

TopoCast: A Topological Fidelity Framework for Evaluating Transformer-Based Time Series Forecasting

Deep learning-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF), yet their evaluation remains dominated by pointwise error metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), which quantify numerical accuracy but overlook structural properties of the forecast signal, including recurrent dynamics, oscillatory behavior, and phase alignment. As a result, forecasts exhibiting over-smoothing, phase shifts, or frequency distortions may achieve favorable error scores despite substantial structural degradation. To address this limitation, we propose TopoCast, a topology-driven framework for evaluating structural fidelity in TSF. TopoCast reconstructs phase-space representations of forecast and ground-truth sequences using Takens delay embedding and applies persistent homology to characterize their intrinsic dynamics. We derive four complementary topological fidelity measures from persistence diagrams and aggregate them into a Topological Fidelity Score (TFS). We further introduce dominant cycle overlap, a novel metric that maps persistent topological features to the temporal domain to assess whether dominant oscillatory patterns occur at the correct time points. Combined with TFS, this yields the Localized Topological Fidelity Score (LTFS), a phase-aware measure that captures temporal localization errors invisible to existing evaluation metrics. Experiments on five Transformer architectures across three real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that models with similar forecasting errors can exhibit markedly different structural fidelity profiles, revealing failure modes overlooked by conventional evaluation and highlighting the value of topology-aware forecast assessment.

Non-negative Matrix Factorisation with Topological Regularisation

We investigate the learning of interpretable bases in non-negative matrix factorisation (NMF) by regularising the topology of the learned basis functions. Our approach is motivated by the observation that many data modalities can be viewed as non-negative functions on a structured domain, where the quality of a basis is intrinsically linked to its topology. However, naive methods for incorporating the topology of the support are often hindered by discreteness and threshold dependence, rendering them unsuitable for continuous optimisation. We address these challenges by employing persistent homology as a stable, threshold-free topological quantifier and by designing topological scores that integrate into the NMF objective as regularisers. The resulting framework encompasses spatially coherent image components, periodic time-series structures, and clique-like graph signals within a unified modelling language.

PHINN: Persistent Homology Inspired Neural Network for Rare-Event Time Series Generation

Rare events in time series are critical to model but hard to learn due to data scarcity. Current generative models struggle with extreme values. We observe that rare events leave distinct topological fingerprints - transitions in Betti numbers from point-cloud embeddings - that are more stable and discriminative than statistical moments. We introduce PHINN, a flow-matching framework using dynamic Betti curves as conditioning signals and a persistence landscape loss for homology consistency. It scales to multivariate data, includes a natural-language interface to set Betti targets, supports cross-domain meta-learning and few-shot generation, and provides certified adversarial robustness. On financial, epidemiological, and multi-modal benchmarks, PHINN outperforms statistical and diffusion baselines in topological fidelity (beta-RMSE down 41-63%, transition accuracy up 84%) and matches jump-diffusion models in tail coverage while exceeding them in shape fidelity. All results have 95% confidence intervals.