Efficient Online Continual Foundation Model Fine-Tuning for Predictive Process Monitoring

Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) models are increasingly deployed in dynamic environments where concept drift causes the underlying process distribution to shift over time. While recent work has moved toward online continual learning, existing methods train compact, task-specific networks entirely from scratch, leaving a persistent cold-start problem. Foundation Models (FMs) offer a compelling solution to this problem, but their continual fine-tuning in the process mining domain remains unexplored. We propose COMPASS (Continual Online foundation Model-based PPM with Adaptive SubSpaces), the first framework for online continual fine-tuning of FMs for PPM. COMPASS adapts loss-plateau drift detection to autonomously identify task boundaries in event streams and maintains a unified knowledge subspace including both pre-trained and task-specific directions. We evaluate our approach on nine event streams covering synthetic and real-world concept drift scenarios, across task-free and task-aware settings with multiple backbones and with consistent hyperparameter tuning across all methods. Our approach outperforms three SOTA non-FM competitors and two update strategy baselines, with particularly strong gains on streams exhibiting recurrent drift and complex, long-running cases, while incurring acceptable computational overhead compared to the non-FM competitors.

Revisiting Predictive Process Monitoring in the Age of Foundation Models: A Comparative Study of Sequence, Tabular, and LLM Approaches

Predictive process monitoring (PPM) leverages event logs to forecast the future of running process instances, for instance, predicting the next activity, the remaining time until case completion, or the time to the next event. While PPM research in recent years has been dominated by deep sequence models trained from scratch, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, foundation-model approaches---particularly large language models (LLMs)---are increasingly explored for PPM. At the same time, tabular foundation models with in-context learning capabilities offer a promising alternative but have not yet been systematically benchmarked for PPM. Thus, it remains unclear whether classical sequence-based models remain competitive in this evolving landscape. This paper compares the three modeling paradigms both conceptually and empirically through a controlled benchmark across multiple datasets and prediction tasks. The results show that sequence models consistently perform best for next activity prediction, whereas tabular foundation models are competitive on temporal tasks, with LLMs usually lagging behind despite higher cost.

Feature Attribution-Based Explainability Analysis of Deep Learning Models in Predictive Process Monitoring

Predictive process monitoring supports the optimization and control of operational business processes by forecasting the future state or outcome of ongoing cases. While deep neural networks have achieved strong performance for these tasks by modeling sequential dependencies in event logs, their black-box nature limits trust and practical adoption. Feature attribution methods are often used to address this, but applying them directly poses a dilemma: event-level attributions impose high computational complexity for long traces, while explanations based on aggregated trace representations often fail to capture the underlying control-flow dynamics. To address this issue, we propose a local post-hoc explainability method for deep neural networks in outcome prediction. The method relies on a control-flow-aware segmentation algorithm that partitions a trace into meaningful segments and supports the computation of segment-level SHAP explanations. This makes it possible to identify which parts of a trace influence a prediction and which change points steer the case toward the predicted outcome. We assess the proposed segmentation method on a synthetic dataset with known process logic, where meaningful change points can be explicitly verified, and we demonstrate its usefulness on real-world event logs from a loan application process and an administrative process of a Dutch municipality.