We introduce Xiaomi-TabLDM, a tabular large data foundation model for classification and regression via in-context learning, which delivers superior prediction accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data generated from structural causal models (SCMs), our model enables more flexible context utilization and more efficient capacity scaling. i) A new performance standard. Strong regression performance across benchmarks: Xiaomi-TabLDM ranks 1st on OpenML-CTR23 and 2nd on regression across TALENT, TabArena, and BCCO, demonstrating consistently strong regression performance across four complementary benchmark suites. Favorable performance--efficiency trade-off: Xiaomi-TabLDM combines strong predictive performance with substantially lower computational cost. For example, on TabArena regression, it achieves the second-highest Elo while using 82% less training time and 68% less prediction time than the top-ranked TabFM. ii) Large-scale synthetic pretraining. Xiaomi-TabLDM expands the coverage and diversity of synthetic tabular data used for pretraining. We also adopt a three-stage training strategy together with dual-stream feature grouping, lightweight Attention Residual, and sparse Mixture-of-Experts, enabling Xiaomi-TabLDM to learn richer feature interactions and expert specialization across diverse tabular tasks. iii) Test-time scaling. Xiaomi-TabLDM further extends tabular prediction through test-time compute scaling, where allocating additional computation at inference time consistently improves predictive performance over the base model.
EXAONE Tabular is a compact tabular foundation model family for classification and regression via in-context learning, producing predictions without dataset-specific gradient updates. Pretrained exclusively on a synthetic structural-causal-model (SCM) prior, its central contribution is an architecture-centered redesign of tabular in-context learning. Rather than compressing features into a fixed row embedding before a separate row-level learner, EXAONE Tabular interleaves feature-axis attention within each item with support-conditioned item-axis attention within each feature at every Transformer layer, mediated by item-summary and feature-summary tokens. Across four public benchmarks, EXAONE Tabular combines strong predictive performance with high efficiency. On TabArena, its 20.81M-parameter classification model ranks first overall, surpassing tuned ensembles and 4-hour AutoML pipelines, while regression reaches the performance regime of the 1.64B-parameter TabFM at roughly 1/11 the inference cost. On BCCO and TALENT, EXAONE Tabular ranks second in classification and first in regression. On ScoringBench, it achieves the best mean rank for both point-estimation and predictive-distribution quality, leading the $R^2$, RMSE, and CRPS evaluations. Together, these results establish EXAONE Tabular as a state-of-the-art compact tabular foundation model family, combining strong predictive performance across classification, point regression, and probabilistic regression with an efficient model design.
Functional data analysis is an important statistical field that treats data as random functions. In practice, the random functions are often not fully observed but instead measured at discrete times. While simpler problems, such as mean and covariance estimation, have been widely studied for discretely observed data, optimal estimation of linear regression for this data type has remained unsolved for over two decades. To tackle this fundamental challenge, we propose a novel approach, referred to as pooling ridge estimation, which combines the advantages of pooling strategy and RKHS-based method by incorporating the unbiased estimation of operators based on discretely observed measurements from all subjects. This unified estimation framework enables us to achieve minimax optimality in prediction risk in arbitrary sampling schemes ranging from sparse to dense designs, for both scalar-on-function and function-on-function regression models. Such methodological and theoretical advances are obtained for the first time and accurately reveal the influence of discrete sampling. For scalar-on-function regression, the phase transition occurs once, separating the convergence behavior into two distinct regimes. Remarkably, for function-on-function regression, up to three phase transitions may occur, determined by the sampling frequencies of the predictor/response functions. Finally, simulation experiments and two real data examples provide empirical support for the proposed methods.
Understanding how neural networks learn and organize features is central to understanding their behavior. Much existing theory of feature learning has focused on the emergence of a global low-dimensional predictive geometry. We show that this picture is incomplete. In regression problems with clustered data, we demonstrate that multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) naturally develop monosemantic specialized neurons: individual neurons become strongly aligned with a specific predictive feature relevant to a particular region of the input space. Rather than learning a single global low-dimensional representation, MLPs learn a collection of local low-dimensional representations that can collectively span a high-dimensional space. This specialization provably gives MLPs a data-efficiency advantage over feature-learning methods based on a global low-dimensional representation.
Gazi Abdur Rakib, Tristan Ashton, Ryan A. Loomis +4stat.ME cs.LG
We introduce a new class of regression models for scan statistics on real-valued signals. These allow for improved fitting of non-stationary signals to contrast with the interval anomalies identified by the scan statistics. Our models can represent generalized likelihood ratio statistics. While these methods naively require $O(n^4)$ for a length $n$ signal, we provide algorithmic improvements which lead to linear time algorithms (with assumptions on max interval width). Our methods, especially ones based on Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression, are demonstrated as especially effective in detecting both synthetically planted anomalies, and for identifying a real ``platforming'' issue in interferometric astronomy.
This paper investigates the estimation of the regression operator in function-on-function regression models. While traditional research has predominantly focused on linear models or their immediate nonlinear extensions, we propose a neural operator approach to accommodate general regression operators under mild smoothness assumptions. Operator learning has emerged as an active area of machine learning, particularly for solving physical models governed by partial differential equations. Using this paradigm, our methodology introduces the separable neural operator, a neural-operator architecture that represents the regression operator through input-dependent coefficient functions and output-dependent basis functions. Beyond adapting this architecture to the regression operator estimation problem, we establish the consistency of the estimator under relatively mild smoothness and sampling conditions, allowing functional data to be observed on dense, possibly irregular, discrete grids. We also apply the proposed approach to the BGC Argo data and demonstrate its potential for oceanographic research.
Whether input-dependent ("dynamic") combination of a regression model pool beats the best static blend depends on the shift and is rarely known before deployment. Can a small labeled target-domain probe tell us when reallocating trust across regions of the input space will pay off? We answer this with $\widehat{D}_{\mathrm{CF5}}$, which estimates from the probe the cross-fitted gain of the regionwise convex combination over the best static convex blend: the realizable value of deciding, region by region, whom to trust. Across a frozen suite of 12 dataset-shift pairs (spatial, temporal, domain, feature-cluster), $\widehat{D}_{\mathrm{CF5}}$ predicts realized regionwise test gains with dataset-level Spearman $+0.98$ (95% CI $[+0.83, +1.00]$; $p=5\times10^{-5}$), including two cases overturning preregistered expectations. The relationship holds in a 16-pair sensitivity analysis (Spearman $+0.83$), whereas alternative probe diagnostics reach at most $+0.66$. This contrast isolates regional trust reallocation: correlation is $+0.98$ for regionwise-convex gain, but $+0.01$ for smooth covariate-dependent stacking after affine correction. A controlled generator shows dynamic gains arise from the interaction of shift heterogeneity and local competence, increase with shift severity, and become realizable between 128 and 256 probe labels in the tested grid. The Probe-Validated Ensemble Selector chooses among a static affine stacker and dynamic realizers, deploying a candidate only when a held-out lower confidence bound clears the static-convex floor. In a preregistered prospective batch, it matched or improved the floor in all 12 runs; two deployments reduced test risk by 11% and 16%, while the gate rejected a candidate whose un-gated deployment incurred $>30\times$ the static loss. We release OpenRegShift, a reproducible evaluation harness for regression ensembles under distribution shift.
In real-world scenarios, the training data usually contains redundant features, label noise and feature noise, which provide severe challenges for the efficiency of machine learning methods. Since standard support vector machine (SVM) adopts $l_2$-norm penalty and hinge loss function, it lacks the ability of selecting significant features and is sensitive to noise. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel asymmetric, robust, bounded, sparse and smooth (aR) loss function for $l_1$-norm penalized geometric twin SVM (aRSGTSVM) to handle classification and regression tasks. The $l_1$-norm penalty can achieve the feature selection. The proposed aR loss function can not only effectively mitigate the impact of label noise, but also significantly enhance the stability to resampling noise, i.e., the zero-mean feature noise around the boundary hyperplanes. Furthermore, a statistical analysis of the robustness of aRSGTSVM was also conducted using the influence function. Since aRSGTSVM involves nonconvex and nonsmooth optimization, we develop a fast and stable proximal gradient descent based solving algorithm. Compared with related state-of-the-art methods, experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed aRSGTSVM on both synthetic and UCI datasets. Furthermore, we apply aRSGTSVM to index tracking tasks, where results for tracking the different indices in the China stock market show that it can achieve satisfactory performance.
Pre-trained black-box predictive functions encode knowledge distilled from massive datasets and extensive computation. However, when the available input features differ from those the black box expects, direct use is infeasible. We introduce a method for transferring predictive knowledge from the black box to a new, heterogeneous input space. Our approach decomposes the target regression function into a transferable component, which the black box can inform, and a non-transferable component, which captures information unique to the new space. We propose a two-step neural network procedure, estimating the transferable component from abundant unlabeled feature pairs that bridge the two input spaces and the non-transferable component from limited labels. We derive prediction risk bounds that improve on those of a non-transfer alternative when the non-transferable component is small or smooth, and the procedure adapts to either case. Under additional conditions, the worst-case risk of our estimator is of strictly smaller polynomial order than the minimax risk of estimation from the labeled data alone. We extend the framework to multiple black boxes, each on its own input space, and show that aggregation can reduce prediction error relative to the best single black box. Simulated and real data demonstrate the practical value of the method.
Chansophea Wathanak In, Yi Li, Wai Ming Tai +1cs.DS cs.LG
This paper studies active regression for single-index models under general $\ell_p$-loss with an unknown $1$-Lipschitz link function $f$, formulated as $\min_{f,x} \|f(Ax)-b\|_p^p$ with full access to $A$ but coordinate-query access to $b$. Prior work established upper bounds for known link functions for all $p\geq 1$ and for unknown link functions only in the $p=2$ case, together with lower bounds for $p\leq 2$. This work addresses the more challenging setting of unknown link functions and general $p \geq 1$. A non-adaptive sampling algorithm is presented that achieves a $(1+ε)$-approximation using $O(d^{p/2\vee 1}/ε^{p\vee 2}\operatorname{poly}\log(n/ε))$ queries. Nearly tight lower bounds are also established for $p>2$. These results close much of the remaining gap in active $\ell_p$-regression for single-index models.
Jacobus G. M. van der Linden, Mim van den Bos, Emir Demirovićcs.LG cs.AI
Optimal decision trees (ODTs) are compact, interpretable machine learning models that globally optimize a given objective, but their scalability remains challenging. While recent work has proposed a variety of search strategies to improve scalability, the precise contribution of each strategy remains unclear. To address this gap, we introduce a general algorithmic framework for ODTs that instantiates previously used search strategies and enables the definition of new ones. This provides a common lens through which to understand and compare different strategies, which we use to empirically investigate the effect of 18 search strategies. Compared to the state of the art, the best strategy in our evaluation achieves significantly better anytime performance for classification, and improves runtime by more than an order of magnitude for regression.
We extend a recently introduced Entropy-Optimal Manifold Clustering (EOMC) to allow for a joint simultaneous identification of subsets and subspaces of relevant features in nonstationary and nonlinear regression problems. It is shown that the proposed extension - that we coin as Entropy-Optimal Manifold Regression (EOMR) - allows a robust learning with linearly-scaling iteration and memory complexities. EOMR is compared to the most complete set of state-of-the-art tools from the Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) that is available to the author, on the very challenging problems from chaotic and fluid dynamics: (i) on predicting the Lorenz-96 systems dynamics in strongly- and very-strongly chaotic regimes (with forcing parameter being $F=8$ and $F=12$, respectively); and, (ii) on a data from the Hasegawa-Wakatani model on the edge of the tokamak plasma. It is demonstrated that the proposed benchmarks (i) and (ii), indeed, are the very challenging problems for the state of the art ML and AI tools - since both the general-purpose gradient boosted random forests and deep neuronal networks, as well as transformer-based AI tools like TabPFN v.03 (more spezialised for large-dimensional small data learning problems) - result in orders of magnitude inferior root mean squared prediction errors, and orders of magnitude larger model complexities, when compared to the EOMR. For a Hasegawa-Wakatani example, EOMR distills a very simple entropy-optimal and skilful description of the leading Essential Orthogonal Function (EOF) dynamics, given by linear, causal and weakly-stationary autoregressive process described by just 8 parameters.
We present a novel approach to regression tasks using classification which is motivated by the mechanism used by fruitflies to sense their environment. Specifically, we formulate a general framework for learning nonlinear input-output relationships by replacing complex global surrogate models with a finite library of representative local patterns. Since scientific data often occupy limited and recurring regions of the input space, we generate predictions by measuring similarities between a query and stored patterns, then combining their associated responses through weighted reconstruction. We apply this approach to nonlinear dynamical systems, data-driven regression, and physics-informed learning using suitable embeddings and similarity measures. For dynamical systems, our offline-online workflow extracts patterns from data or governing equations during the offline phase, while online prediction requires only similarity evaluation and response aggregation. This structure helps us reduce computational and memory demands while providing explicit control over the trade-off among accuracy, storage, and inference cost.
Lawrence Fulton, Christopher Fulton, Arvind Sharma +1stat.ME cs.LG math.DG stat.AP
Regression estimates from observational data can depend on specification under multicollinearity, while sequential sums of squares (SS) depend on term order. We introduce Retrospective Orthogonal Design (ROD), which reconstructs conditional mean surfaces on a probability-balanced lattice. ROD preserves observed cell means, completes unsupported cells, applies weighted tensor-product contrasts, and evaluates the reconstructed surface through piecewise-affine interpolation over Freudenthal polyhedra. Resolution and completion are selected jointly by validation among rank-admissible candidates, followed by refitting and evaluation on an untouched test set. For an admissible lattice, $\mathbf{X}^{\top}\mathbf{W}\mathbf{X}=c\mathbf{I}$, yielding specification-invariant contrast effects and unique, order-independent SS within the retained contrast space. Response-free projection calibration maps the fixed reconstruction onto a declared scientific basis and corrects finite-resolution recovery loss. Across 6,480 simulation conditions spanning nine data-generating processes, ROD matched or exceeded polynomial regression in five processes and performed strongest on threshold, sign-interaction, and localized surfaces. For the quadratic-interaction process, mean out-of-sample $R^2$ differed by only $0.0001$, while calibrated coefficient bias remained small across prespecified targets. A Rao-based information adjustment provides dependence-aware sample-size guidance for ROD planning. In a weighted Mincer application, ROD produced the highest out-of-sample $R^2$ point estimate, with substantial interval overlap with polynomial regression, and provided exhaustive SS allocations invariant to term-entry order.
Distributional random forests replace mean-based CART splitting with criteria that compare the full conditional response distribution in candidate children. We implement and systematically study a family of such criteria inside a single honest-forest implementation: isotropic random-Fourier-feature maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), an anisotropic diagonal-bandwidth variant, an adaptive per-split frequency-selection variant, and a non-kernel sliced-Wasserstein criterion, together with post-hoc kernel-mean shrinkage of the forest weights. Using paired-seed comparisons across synthetic quantile mechanisms, real univariate benchmarks, a California-housing subsample curve, and multivariate synthetic and real responses, we characterize where each extension pays. Three findings recur. First, among distributional criteria ordinary isotropic MMD is already close to best in class: the anisotropic, adaptive-frequency, and sliced-Wasserstein extensions, and post-hoc shrinkage, do not systematically improve on it. Second, on scalar tabular regression mean-based CART splitting remains the robust default and wins many cells. Third, multivariate responses are the regime where distributional splitting clearly earns its keep, most sharply on a pure-dependence copula where the energy score separates the criteria even though marginal CRPS does not. The evidence supports a simple allocation story: distributional splitting helps only when non-location structure is both present and estimable; otherwise it dilutes split-selection power away from the mean. All criteria, the honest forest, and the paired-comparison harness are implemented in the open-source \texttt{drforest} library, whose Rust-backed split search makes broad criterion sweeps inexpensive.
Cayan Deniz Kucuktopana, Javier Fumanal-Idocin, Richard Pitts +1cs.LG
Machine learning models achieve high predictive accuracy in regression tasks, but their deployment in safety-critical and regulated domains requires interpretability. While fuzzy rule-based systems offer transparent, linguistically explicit interpretable models, Mamdani-style fuzzy regression remains underrepresented in modern machine learning software libraries. This paper presents an interpretable regression extension for the Ex-Fuzzy library, enabling Mamdani fuzzy inference with scalar consequents learned directly from data. For this, a target-aware partition initialisation strategy based on Fuzzy C-Means clustering is introduced, in which linguistic variables are derived from an augmented input-output space to emphasise output-relevant regions of the feature space. The proposed extension is evaluated on ten regression datasets from the KEEL repository, comparing Gaussian and trapezoidal partition strategies against standard baselines including linear regression, multilayer perceptron, and random forests. Experimental results show that Gaussian partitions consistently outperform uniform trapezoidal partitions, achieving a mean coefficient of determination of approximately 0.86 while producing compact rule bases of 10-15 human-readable rules. The proposed implementation provides a transparent and competitive alternative to black-box regression models, supporting practical interpretability with competitive predictive performance.
Data Shapley answers which training points are worth what, and its nearest-neighbor specialization is the version actually deployed, shipped by toolkits such as pyDVL and OpenDataVal. Exact algorithms exist for unweighted nearest-neighbor classification and regression, and recently for weighted classification; weighted regression and soft-label prediction have resisted, the only exact method being enumeration exponential in the neighborhood size. The obstruction, in the prior authors' own words, is that the weighted regression prediction is a ratio of two coalition-dependent weighted sums: its normalization denominator blocks the additive and threshold routes, and leaves the counting route exponential in the target resolution. We close this gap with a counting dynamic program over the joint integer state of accumulated weight and weighted target, a minimal sufficient statistic for the ratio; it is exact, pseudo-polynomial, and matched exhaustive enumeration with zero mismatch. We add a certified approximation scheme for continuous weights and targets carrying a machine-checkable per-value certificate, a complexity landscape delimiting the exact problem, and a soft-label extension. We release an open-source, CPU-only library and the first exact weighted-regression ground truth. On mislabel detection our exact values are statistically equivalent to Monte-Carlo Data Shapley; exactness instead buys determinism, a certified bound, and an auditing reference, and it puts a measured price on approximation.
Over the last few years, there has been an increased interest in making machine learning models more interpretable. Although a great deal of effort goes into developing techniques for interpreting the interactions learned by a given model, fewer studies focus on assessing the quality of such explanations. Even fewer focus on how to adjust the model to produce explanations faithful to prior knowledge, a process known as explanation-guided learning. Furthermore, most approaches in this area focus on classification problems and usually assume prior knowledge about which input features or regions are most important. In this work, we introduce a new approach to steering neural networks based on partial dependence, such that their average response to certain features aligns with specific functional domain knowledge about the problem. We empirically demonstrate on a range of regression problems, including dynamical systems forecasting, that models whose training has been controlled using our method perform better than unconstrained models and are more data-efficient. Moreover, we highlight that interpretations obtained from the former actually align with the user-provided knowledge, whereas those obtained from the latter do not.
Sina Aghaee Dabaghan Fard, Marie Maros, Jaesung Leecs.LG stat.ME
We introduce an efficient Bayesian deep ensemble method for predictive regression designed to enhance interpretability while maintaining competitive predictive performance and computational efficiency. Our method combines the statistical rigor of Bayesian inference with the scalability of deep ensembles, providing calibrated uncertainty estimates that enable its use not only for standalone prediction but also as a component within broader learning systems. To achieve these goals, our work relies on three key design components: (i) low-dimensional ensemble representation: predictions are expressed as a combination of a small number of trained neural predictors, enabling scalable inference whose cost depends on ensemble size rather than dataset size; (ii) closed-form Bayesian aggregation: ensemble predictions are combined using Bayesian linear regression, yielding interpretable posterior weights and calibrated uncertainty without approximate inference; and (iii) Independent ensemble training: multiple neural networks are trained separately, producing diverse predictive representations that improve robustness and uncertainty calibration. Empirical results on standard regression benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves competitive predictive performance while maintaining reliable uncertainty estimates across settings.
Marek Polewczyk, Maximilian Schambach, Marco Spinaci +2cs.LG
We introduce FlexTab, a flexible encoder-decoder architecture for in-context learning on tabular data that pairs a single, task-agnostic encoder with a suite of task-specific decoders. Unlike existing tabular in-context learners, which entangle feature representations with a specific prediction target, our design produces \textit{target-agnostic} row embeddings that can be leveraged across a wide range of downstream tasks within a table-native in-context learning setup. We demonstrate this flexibility on six distinct problems: classification, regression, anomaly detection, clustering, entity matching, and entity classification in relational databases. Both the encoder and the task-specific decoders are trained on a large corpus of real-world, unlabeled tables. FlexTab achieves state-of-the-art performance on classification, regression, anomaly detection and entity matching, while remaining competitive with specialized models on entity classification in a relational setting. These results demonstrate that a single shared encoder, paired with task-specific decoders, can serve as an effective general-purpose backbone for diverse tabular prediction problems. The inference code and checkpoints will be made publicly available at https://github.com/SAP-samples/flextab.
Quantum kernel estimation on near-term hardware is shot-budgeted: every entry of the kernel Gram matrix is a Bernoulli expectation that must be sampled with a finite number of circuit executions. Recent work on quantum kernel classification has shown that allocating shots non-uniformly across kernel entries, weighted by their downstream task sensitivity, can reduce the shot budget required to reach a target accuracy. We extend this idea to Gaussian process (GP) regression, a setting whose downstream quantities (full-spectrum posterior variance, log-determinant, marginal likelihood) couple to kernel error more tightly than the sign-only outputs of classification. We derive three closed-form pair-level sensitivities predictive coupling $|α_iα_j|$, leave-one-out residual, and marginal-likelihood gradient and plug them into a Neyman-style minimum-variance allocation rule. To prevent catastrophic over-concentration when the warm-up sensitivity estimate is itself noisy, we add a high uniform coverage floor justified by a Frobenius lower bound on the missing-entry perturbation. On four UCI benchmarks and two synthetic RBF + Bernoulli controlled studies, the resulting allocator delivers $10$--$21\%$ test-RMSE improvement over uniform allocation across the moderate-budget regime. The gain transfers (i) to genuine ZZ and Pauli-Z quantum kernels on quantum-natural data ($-13$--$15\%$ at low budget, $p<0.05$ paired) and (ii) to four downstream tasks (Bayesian quadrature, heteroscedastic regression, hyperparameter learning, multi-output Cokriging). On UCI features embedded into a ZZ kernel the gain disappears, consistent with the exponential-concentration regime where shot allocation has nothing to exploit.
Yong Yi Bay, Kathleen A. Yearickcs.LG cs.AI math.NA stat.ML
Hyperparameter tuning almost always means search: fit the model at every value on a grid, score each by cross-validation, and keep the winner. For spline regression that search is unnecessary. The optimal resolution can be solved for in closed form, to the accuracy an exhaustive search reaches, at a fraction of the compute. Three ingredients make this possible: classical approximation theory pins the squared bias to a known power of the resolution G, exactly the Kolmogorov n-width of the smoothness class; the basis dimension is an explicit polynomial in G; and leave-one-out error follows from a single fit via the PRESS identity. Balancing the two known curves gives the minimizer analytically. We extend this calculus to many coordinates by replacing ambient input dimension with interaction order, the number of active low-order components in an ANOVA decomposition, yielding a scaling law in which the optimal resolution and error are power functions of the effective density (sample size per active component), with input dimension absent from the exponent. The law becomes an algorithm. KORE (Kolmogorov-optimal Order-aware Resolution Estimation) fits two pilot resolutions, solves a leverage-calibrated 2x2 system for the bias and noise scales, and evaluates the closed-form plug-in resolution with a tiny leave-one-out certificate: about a dozen fits instead of a full grid sweep, with a consistency guarantee as the sample grows. Across additive and sparse pairwise targets up to 80 input dimensions, KORE matches exhaustive 3-fold cross-validation and the full classical ladder (GCV, Mallows' Cp, AIC, BIC) while fitting roughly 8x fewer models; on 36 real tabular datasets it ranks first among 21 methods in accuracy per unit of compute, ahead of tuned boosters and kernel machines. When complexity lives in low interaction order, solving for the resolution beats searching for it.
Shuli Jiang, Walid Krichene, Nicolas Mayorazcs.LG cs.AI
We study differentially private (DP) regression in settings where each data sample includes public, non-sensitive features -- common in applications such as recommendation and advertising systems. While such label-DP or semi-sensitive-feature settings have been primarily explored in the context of classification, effective approaches for regression remain underexplored. We introduce Cond-DP, a conditioned variant of DPSGD that leverages the structure of public feature matrices to improve optimization under privacy constraints. Motivated by the observation that these public features often exhibit rapidly decaying spectra, Cond-DP incorporates a data-driven conditioning matrix to reshape the optimization landscape and accelerate convergence. We provide convergence guarantees for convex, strongly convex, and non-convex settings, and recover standard DPSGD as a special case when the conditioning matrix is the identity. We show how to construct an effective conditioning matrix for Cond-DP directly from public features, enabling provably faster convergence than DPSGD in private linear regression without incurring additional privacy cost. Empirically, Cond-DP with this conditioning matrix consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across a wide range of datasets and model architectures under label DP, demonstrating strong and robust performance in practice.
Conformal Prediction (CP) provides robust uncertainty guarantees for predictive models, but is typically applied post hoc, which misaligns model training with the conformal goal of producing efficient (i.e, narrow) intervals. We propose SPACR (Single-Pass Adaptive Conformal Regressor), a novel method for directly training uncertainty-aware regressors within a differentiable loss. SPACR jointly optimizes efficiency and validity without batch-splitting or a predefined confidence levels during training. As a result, a single SPACR model yields valid prediction intervals at multiple confidence levels during inference, avoiding the costly retraining required by methods like DOICR. Experiments on diverse datasets show that SPACR consistently gives tighter intervals and better coverage-efficiency trade-offs compared to standard CP and DOICR, while significantly reducing computational costs.
The main goal in regression modelling consists in approximating the conditional mean of a response given a set of features. A regression function is said to be calibrated if the resulting mean estimates match the true conditional means for almost every set of features. Aiming for calibration seems not achievable in practice as one typically deals with finite samples of noisy observations. A weaker notion of calibration is auto-calibration, and it means that the expectation of responses being given the same mean estimate matches this estimate. This notion is important, e.g., in insurance pricing as it ensures no cross-subsidization between different price cohorts. In this paper, we show that boosting trees can be used to test necessary conditions for calibration and auto-calibration, respectively. The practical relevance of our approach is supported by a numerical example, in which the proposed tests prove to be very powerful on a large insurance dataset.
Representative data is fundamental in machine learning, as limited data hinders generalisation. Collecting sufficient real-world samples is often infeasible. Synthetic data generation offers a practical solution, but only if the generated data faithfully reflects the structure of real observations. In this paper, a method for generating synthetic regression datasets that structurally resemble physics equations from a given equation corpus is presented. The approach uses a Bayesian Probabilistic Context-Free Grammar to capture the underlying algebraic structure of the corpus, from which novel equations are sampled. To ensure the generated inputs lie within a physically meaningful domain, the applicability domain is characterised for each equation through non-intrusive probing, also recovering inter-variable constraints. Input sampling further mimics realistic experimental conditions by drawing from random sub-ranges of the valid domain with mixed uniform and truncated normal distributions. The generated data is statistically validated against the Feynman equation corpus using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. The generated equations match the corpus on all of the eight studied structural features, compared to only two for an unsmoothed purely probabilistic grammar, demonstrating that the Bayesian prior is essential for structural fidelity given the size of the corpus. In a downstream hyperparameter-tuning task, a gradient-boosted regressor tuned on the synthetic data picks, on average, the 6th-best configuration out of 20 on real data, matching the result of tuning on real data itself and substantially outperforming random expression trees (10th) and noise (19th).
The Forward-Forward (FF) algorithm offers a computationally efficient and biologically plausible alternative to backpropagation (BP) by training neural networks through purely local, layer-wise optimization. However, FF is inherently designed for classification via contrastive positive-negative sample pairs, and extending it to regression poses fundamental challenges: continuous target space lack natural "opposites" for contrastive learning, and the standard goodness function carries no information about target magnitude or ordering. We propose FFR (Forward-Forward for Regression), to our knowledge, the first framework to extend FF to real-world regression and demonstrate competitive performance across diverse real-world datasets. FFR introduces three key innovations: (1) an ordinal competitive goodness function that replaces contrastive pairs with competitive learning between partitioned neuron groups under distance-aware ordinal supervision; (2) a stratified ladder architecture where shallow layers learn coarse ordinal discrimination and deeper layers refine into fine-grained regression, with multi-scale feature aggregation for inter-layer collaboration; and (3) hierarchical prediction with uncertainty estimation, where multi-scale predictors jointly provide robust predictions and prediction confidence as a free-lunch. Extensive experimental results show FFR recovers on average 98.6% of BP's accuracy across five real-world regression benchmarks while reducing peak training memory to only 27% of BP's at depth 8 and 8% at depth 32, with per-iteration time around 72% of BP's, and substantially outperforms all BP-free competitors.
Johannes Resin, Lu Yang, Tilmann Gneitingstat.ML cs.LG
Concepts of calibration formalize the compatibility between probabilistic predictions and the respective outcomes. In a nutshell, the outcomes ought to be indistinguishable from random draws from the predictive distributions. In this paper, we review, extend, and bridge notions of calibration that have been proposed for classification and regression tasks. Particular emphasis is given to hierarchical relations between the various notions, as they apply to general real-valued data, continuous outcomes, count data, nominal classes, and binary outcomes. To highlight a number of contributions, we introduce the notion of modal calibration for nominal outcomes, we distinguish full, partial, and average calibration in this setting, and we show that double probability integral transform (PIT) calibration is logically independent of previously proposed concepts of calibration for discrete outcomes. Furthermore, we generalize extant results on concepts of calibration that are expressed in terms of properties or functionals of the predictive distributions, such as means, quantiles, or event probabilities. Throughout the paper, we illustrate the concepts and their hierarchical relations in worked examples, and we provide algorithmic tools that support the construction of instructive examples and counterexamples.
Real-world regression often exhibits shortcuts: attributes that are spuriously correlated with continuous targets in training, yet unreliable under deployment shifts; regressing targets using such shortcuts may fail catastrophically at test time. Existing studies on spurious correlations focus primarily on classification, where labels are categorical and groups are naturally defined. However, many real-world tasks require continuous prediction, where hard label boundaries or discrete group-label pairs do not exist. We define Deep Spurious Regression (DSR) as learning from regression data with attribute-label confounding, addressing continuous spurious correlations, and generalizing to all attribute-label combinations at test time. Motivated by the intrinsic difference between classification and regression shortcuts, we propose to exploit the similarity among spurious attributes in both label and feature spaces, thereby accounting for nearby targets and related groups while calibrating both label and learned feature distributions across attributes. Extensive experiments on common real-world DSR datasets that span computer vision, environmental sensing, and large language model (LLM) regression verify the superior performance of our strategies. Our work fills the gap in benchmarks and techniques for studying spurious correlations in continuous prediction.