ARASH: Adaptive Retrieval And Shot Selection for Tabular Prediction

Tabular prediction is a critical task across numerous applications. The recent success of large language models has sparked various approaches for adapting them to the tabular domain. A prevalent strategy involves training or fine-tuning specialized Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) such as TabPFN. However, TFMs require substantial computational resources, and frequent model retraining is often impractical. In-context learning (ICL), specifically, few-shot prompting, offers a resource-efficient alternative to enhance performance. Yet, identifying the most relevant rows to serve as shots remains a challenge for tabular data. This paper introduces ARASH (Adaptive, query-specific Retrieval And Shot selection), a method that improves TFM efficiency by selecting optimal shots based on local neighborhood analysis within the training set. Our results demonstrate that ARASH reduces the prompt length and memory usage of TabPFN by 1261.5$\times$ and 2.56$\times$, respectively, while providing comparable accuracy.

Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval

How many key-value associations can a $d\times d$ linear memory store? We show that the answer depends not only on the $d^2$ degrees of freedom in the memory matrix, but also on the retrieval criterion. In an isotropic Gaussian model for the stored pairs, we show that top-1 retrieval, where every signal must beat its largest distractor, requires the logarithmic model-size scale $d^2\asymp n\log n$. We prove that the correlation matrix memory construction, which stores associations by superposing key-target outer products, achieves this scale through a sharp phase transition, and that the same scaling is necessary for any linear memory. Thus the logarithm is the intrinsic extreme-value price of winner-take-all decoding. We next consider listwise retrieval, where the correct target need not be the unique top-scoring item but should remain among the strongest candidates. To formalize this regime, we propose the Tail-Average Margin (TAM), a convex upper-tail criterion that certifies inclusion of the correct target in a controlled candidate list. Under this listwise retrieval criterion, the capacity follows the quadratic scale $d^2\asymp n$. At load $n/d^2\toα$, we develop an exact asymptotic theory for the TAM empirical-risk minimizer through a two-parameter scalar variational principle. The theory has a rich phenomenology: in the ridgeless limit it yields a closed-form critical load separating satisfiable and unsatisfiable phases, and it predicts the limiting laws of true scores, competitor scores, margins, and percentile profiles. Finally, a small-tail extrapolation further leads to the conjectural sharp top-1 threshold $d^2\sim 2n\log n$.

Statistical Consistency and Generalization of Contrastive Representation Learning

Contrastive representation learning (CRL) underpins many modern foundation models. Despite recent theoretical progress, existing analyses suffer from several key limitations: (i) the statistical consistency of CRL remains poorly understood; (ii) available generalization bounds deteriorate as the number of negative samples increases, contradicting the empirical benefits of large negative sets; and (iii) the retrieval performance of CRL has received limited theoretical attention. In this paper, we develop a unified statistical learning theory for CRL. For downstream tasks, we evaluate retrieval quality using an AUC-type population criterion and show that the contrastive loss is \emph{statistically consistent} with optimal ranking. We further establish a \emph{calibration-style inequality} that quantitatively relates excess contrastive risk to excess retrieval suboptimality. For upstream training, we study both supervised and self-supervised contrastive objectives and derive generalization bounds of order $O(1/m + 1/\sqrt{n})$ and $O(1/\sqrt{m} + 1/\sqrt{n})$, respectively, where $m$ denotes the number of negative samples and $n$ the number of anchor points. These bounds not only explain the empirical advantages of large negative sets but also reveal an explicit trade-off between $m$ and $n$. Extensive experiments on large-scale vision--language models corroborate our theoretical predictions.